What about the fact that he gets his big money contract a year later? Insurance will cover some, but likely not all if he is injured. Guy would have gone 15ish this year... If he doesn't show improvement in his body and skills will he get picked top ten... maybe? If he stays the same or only gets a little better could he slide to the second round?
When you add in the extra training that NBA guys get and there is no way it was a smart business decision to go back. If it was for other reasons then so be it, but as far as business goes he should have come out.
This actually isn't true. If all that changes is his draft stock, and he maxes out his next two deals, here is the math:
If he is picked #20 in 2015 and #10 in 2016 the difference is $14,777,955.530. That means he would make 15 million more going back to school.
If he is picked #20 in 2015 and #5 in 2016 the difference is $19,304,823.21.
Like I said, if he thinks he can go from a late first round pick to a top 10, or top 5 pick, the smart money is to go back to school. Literally. 15-20 million dollars by going back to school.
Basically, Poeltl is making a 15-20 million dollar bet that he can improve his stock.
If he can go from a 20 pick, where your deal is worth 6 million, to a top 5 pick, where your deal is worth 15 million, he will make almost 10 million more on his rookie deal. That is a lot of money.
Heck, a 20 pick is worth 6 million, a 10 pick is worth 10 million. 4 million is a lot of money. Worth going back to school for.
I'd rather make 4-10 million more on my first deal, then leave early and lose that money.
Is there risk? Yeah. But an extra 4-10 million is a lot of money.