Marc Stein: Jazz-Warriors discuss pre-Lottery trade (Source says trade "likely")

[Hantlers]

It's not as crazy as you think. Thompson avg 12 pts in 25 mins. Burks was 7 in 15 mins. Burke is more athletic and a better defender and ball handler. Thompson is a better shooter. Thompson is more polished offensively but Burks has a higher ceiling.

Anyways, this is all besides the point. The point is, trading for a late first round or second round pick is dumb. GS screwed Utah. We are going to help them for a pick that statistically won't be on the team in 3 years? No thanks. Like I said, I would rather have the cap space to sign a FA who has a proven skill set and the chance at #8.

This board completely over values draft picks, especially late first round and second round picks.

In the 2nd half of the season, Thompson averaged 17 ppg in 31 minutes while shooting ~40% from 3. They aren't trading him.

The point is, trading for a late 1st and 2nd round pick is as good as we're going to get. We're not going to get a player like Thompson because we have a 27% chance of getting the 8th pick. Be a little more realistic.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

It's possible Thompson was the top Rookie the second half of the year.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This is truly a fascinating topic. If the deal gets done, it is guaranteed that someone will look brilliant and someone will look like a fool.

 

[NUMBERICA]

If the Jazz end up forfeiting the pick for a late first rounder and/or cash and the pick gets pushed back, holy **** will that be hard to swallow.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If the Jazz end up forfeiting the pick for a late first rounder and/or cash and the pick gets pushed back, holy **** will that be hard to swallow.

That's why I would say pass on the deal and let it ride. We have more to lose than gain here by doing a deal. It's the Ws who are nervous, not us. I don't think the Ws late first-round pick or scrubby player is going to net us a mid first-round pick in this draft. Giving up a shot at the #8 for a guaranteed #12 would be a fair move, but I don't see how the Ws help us achieve that.

 

[BluesRocker]

That's why I would say pass on the deal and let it ride. We have more to lose than gain here by doing a deal. It's the Ws who are nervous, not us. I don't think the Ws late first-round pick or scrubby player is going to net us a mid first-round pick in this draft. Giving up a shot at the #8 for a guaranteed #12 would be a fair move, but I don't see how the Ws help us achieve that.

This is a good point. We have more to lose here. GS would have to overpay us for this to make it worth it.

I like the position we are in. We have a chance to make this last piece to the Dwill trade to turn out the best it possibly could. It would be the cherry on top. We get the 8th pick in a deep draft on a top7 protected pick, from a team who tried to tank for it. The basketball gods cant be happy. The stars are aligning and we are on the brink of destiny. But not if we give this up. This sorta feels like a pinacle point in our rebuild. We will probably look back on this in one of two ways. Extremely gratefull or really mad.

I dont like the idea of giving up this chance. Not much to be gained by trading for some stupid money. We are going to get GS's pick next year between 12-18 no matter what, if we dont win this. Not as good as 8 in this draft. Big difference

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

Any team with Mark Jackson as their coach has not only a possibility but the PROBABILITY of tanking. He's a terrible coach.

Also, why would a team with Bogut and Curry be better next year? Those two are more injury prone than Boozer or AK.

I think your chances of winning the lottery or being abducted by aliens is greater than Bogut and/or Curry being healthy for more than half of next season.

If we can get GS's pick THIS YEAR then I say DO IT. Trade then Al Jefferson (to someone... ANYONE)... Start Favors from day 1 next year. Have the Mailman work with Kanter all summer long. Burks and Hayward? Overtime with Hornacek. Draft Marshall or a wing that can knock down the 3. Devin Harris can either walk when his contract runs out or we can use him as trade bait.

The Mark Jackson hate on this board is pitiful.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

If the Jazz end up forfeiting the pick for a late first rounder and/or cash and the pick gets pushed back, holy **** will that be hard to swallow.

It would be especially hard to swallow for me because, and I don't think I've heard anyone talk about this yet, but next year's draft class may likely be noticeably weaker than this year's. In other words, an 8th this year is really freakin' good as compared to most years but an 11th next year (or something like that), may be ****. Personally, I lean toward giving them the pick this year for their unprotected 1st next year, #30 this year, AND #35 this year. I'm not sure they'd do that but that's what I'd want (mostly because their unprotected 1st next year could net a mediocre player) and I would also be willing to trade our #47 back I think, or maybe just swap 47 with 52.

 

[Dr. Jones]

It would be especially hard to swallow for me because, and I don't think I've heard anyone talk about this yet, but next year's draft class may likely be noticeably weaker than this year's. In other words, an 8th this year is really freakin' good as compared to most years but an 11th next year (or something like that), may be ****. Personally, I lean toward giving them the pick this year for their unprotected 1st next year, #30 this year, AND #35 this year. I'm not sure they'd do that but that's what I'd want (mostly because their unprotected 1st next year could net a mediocre player) and I would also be willing to trade our #47 back I think, or maybe just swap 47 with 52.

Some good points, for sure. I still don't like the 70+% chance our gamble results in a loss. Any of you Jazz fanz any good at gambling? Maybe we should post this whole idea into the poker thread.

 

[BluesRocker]

It would be especially hard to swallow for me because, and I don't think I've heard anyone talk about this yet, but next year's draft class may likely be noticeably weaker than this year's. In other words, an 8th this year is really freakin' good as compared to most years but an 11th next year (or something like that), may be ****. Personally, I lean toward giving them the pick this year for their unprotected 1st next year, #30 this year, AND #35 this year. I'm not sure they'd do that but that's what I'd want (mostly because their unprotected 1st next year could net a mediocre player) and I would also be willing to trade our #47 back I think, or maybe just swap 47 with 52.

I wouldnt want anything less either, but you dont think that is a little much to be hoping for though. I dont think there is any way GS gives up that much. They still have a 72% chance of staying in the 7th spot

 

[billyshelby]

Anyone who thinks it's a "sure thing" or a "good risk" that GS's Top 7 and Top 6 protections the next 2 seasons will net us a pick should look at the histories of down teams in bad cycles.

TWolves: 2006 - 2011, lowest pick was 7.
Wizards: 10/11/12, all picks 6 or under.
Sacramento: Last 4 drafts lowest pick was 7.
New Jersey: Currently at 3/5 for the last 2 years, heading toward 3 years at under 7.

And I'm not even delving deeper for teams that have lived in the lottery like the Clippers.

Gambling on getting the 8 or higher, and then the 7 or higher, is not actually a great bet. Assuring a guaranteed 1st with the right conditions and concessions is the smart move.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

I wouldnt want anything less either, but you dont think that is a little much to be hoping for though. I dont think there is any way GS gives up that much. They still have a 72% chance of staying in the 7th spot

I get it and don't disagree but we hold all the cards here. They're the desperate party. They're coming to us because they want to ensure they get this year's 1st. And for me, next year's unprotected 1st + #30 this year may be equal to or less than if we were to get the #8 this year based on the fact that that 1st next year may only net us a mediocre player given next year's weaker draft crop and there's obviously no sure thing that the #30 would wind up with anything past a first contract. In other words, why do it? Obviously we only have a 28% chance to get their 1st this year but still. #35 for me raises those odds exponentially (one of the three--#30, 35 or next year's first would likely wind up being a guy to contribute quality minutes imo) and brings this to where it make sense for me. Otherwise, I'd say **** you to them and roll the dice in three days.

I think we could get next year's first (unprotected), #30, AND #35 with the Warriors getting their 1st this year (conditions revoked) and our #47. I think this is pretty damn fair all the way around. Probably a little more fair for us but like I said, we're holding the cards here so I think the details are right where they should be, all things considered. They'd still get #7 (or lower), #47 and #52 this year and be able too work them into a core with Curry, Thompson, Jefferson, Bogut, Lee, Biedrins, and Wright. Not bad.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Good post, Billy. Way to redeem.

 

[BluesRocker]

Anyone who thinks it's a "sure thing" or a "good risk" that GS's Top 7 and Top 6 protections the next 2 seasons will net us a pick should look at the histories of down teams in bad cycles.

TWolves: 2006 - 2011, lowest pick was 7.
Wizards: 10/11/12, all picks 6 or under.
Sacramento: Last 4 drafts lowest pick was 7.
New Jersey: Currently at 3/5 for the last 2 years, heading toward 3 years at under 7.

And I'm not even delving deeper for teams that have lived in the lottery like the Clippers.

Gambling on getting the 8 or higher, and then the 7 or higher, is not actually a great bet. Assuring a guaranteed 1st with the right conditions and concessions is the smart move.

Can you imagine the negotiations? GS says to KOC. We will tank again if we have to, you know we are good at it. So you better take the deal.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Can you imagine the negotiations? GS says to KOC. We will tank again if we have to, you know we are good at it. So you better take the deal.

Way to bring us back to reality there, blues.

 

[BluesRocker]

I get it and don't disagree but we hold all the cards here. They're the desperate party. They're coming to us because they want to ensure they get this year's 1st. And for me, next year's unprotected 1st + #30 this year may be equal to or less than if we were to get the #8 this year based on the fact that that 1st next year could net us a mediocre player and there's obviously no sure thing that the #30 would wind up with anything past a first contract. In other words, why do it? Obviously we only have a 28% chance to get their 1st this year but still. #35 for me raises those odds exponentially (one of the three--#30, 35 or next year's first would likely wind up being a guy to contribute quality minutes imo) and brings this to where it make sense for me. Otherwise, I'd say **** you to them and roll the dice in three days.

I think we could get next year's first (unprotected), #30, AND #35 with the Warriors getting their 1st this year (conditions revoked) and our #47. I think this is pretty damn fair all the way around. Probably a little more fair for us but like I said, we're holding the cards here so I think the details are right where they should be, all things considered. They'd still get #7 (or lower), #47 and #52 this year and be able too work them into a core with Curry, Thompson, Jefferson, Bogut, Lee, Biedrins, and Wright. Not bad.

I would hope so. So we could get a shot at Royce White, by putting together those picks.

 

[billyshelby]

I get it and don't disagree but we hold all the cards here. They're the desperate party. They're coming to us because they want to ensure they get this year's 1st. And for me, next year's unprotected 1st + #30 this year may be equal to or less than if we were to get the #8 this year based on the fact that that 1st next year could net us a mediocre player and there's obviously no sure thing that the #30 would wind up with anything past a first contract. In other words, why do it? Obviously we only have a 28% chance to get their 1st this year but still. #35 for me raises those odds exponentially (one of the three--#30, 35 or next year's first would likely wind up being a guy to contribute quality minutes imo) and brings this to where it make sense for me. Otherwise, I'd say **** you to them and roll the dice in three days.

I think we could get next year's first (unprotected), #30, AND #35 with the Warriors getting their 1st this year (conditions revoked) and our #47. I think this is pretty damn fair all the way around. probably a little more fair for us but like I said, we're holding the cards here so I think the details are right where they should be, all things considered. They'd still get #7 (or lower), #47 and #52 this year and be able too work them into a core with Curry, Thompson, Jefferson, Bogut, Lee, Biedrins, and Wright. Not bad.

This is pie in the sky. We will never get next year's pick unprotected. Or even the following year. Any guaranteed 1st will come after the current deal expires, and conditions on that deal are likely to change in exchange for making the deal in the first place.

The one slight alternative is KOC may be able to get them to lower the restrictions: ie., Top 7 protected next year (as before), Top 3 the year after (major concession from 6). They'd probably balk at that, though.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I would hope so. So we could get a shot at Royce White, by putting together those picks.

Two things;

1) No. We couldn't get White as he'll go around 21/22 and we couldn't trade the picks to move up to that spot.
2) Doesn't matter, because there would be guys at 30 that are likely to be as good as Royce.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

I would hope so. So we could get a shot at Royce White, by putting together those picks.

Or, while I'm dreaming...

Jefferson + #35 + a future protected 1st for #4 overall to draft MKG

Warriors unprotected 1st next year for #10 (or so) to get Lillard

Use #30 on Jenkins

Sign Nash to three years, 27M, frontloaded.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

This is pie in the sky. We will never get next year's pick unprotected. Or even the following year. Any guaranteed 1st will come after the current deal expires, and conditions on that deal are likely to change in exchange for making the deal in the first place.

The one slight alternative is KOC may be able to get them to lower the restrictions: ie., Top 7 protected next year (as before), Top 3 the year after (major concession from 6). They'd probably balk at that, though.

Then I wish them the best of luck. We hold the cards. And that's why they came to us.