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Mike Conley Contingency Plan

LoPo said:
We didn't want to pay the price for Jrue, so we got Conley. We should have just paid the price for Jrue. We need a Tesla with Don and Rudy if we want to take that next step.

I'm not saying Lonzo is some badass, but he does fit and we need to pursue him if Conley is intent on leaving. Or Brogdon. Or Smart. We desperately need a 24 mpg+ guy who can defend the perimeter.

We got to stop cutting corners. We don't need to rely on 2nd rounders Quin won't play when there are vets out there he might trust more.
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Okay but we can get 75% of the stuff we want out of Lonzo from a budget version like Delon Wright. You then use the other money and assets saved to address other needs. I think Lonzo can improve but I don’t see him taking another leap. It’s like paying $50 for a t shirt when you can buy the same one for $10. I’ll pocket the $40 difference for something else.

I also think the amount of wild *** assumptions we have to make to think we could get Lonzo make it so obvious it’s not an option... like at all. If we want to dream that’s fine but if I’m dreaming I’m dreaming bigger than Lonzo.

He’s restricted and his teammates really want him back. His team can pay him with no problem at all. A team like NY can roll out a huge contract for him if they want. Worst case NO matches and then they can trade him later for much more than a sign and trade would net.

But sure I’ll bet he wants to come here really bad and is willing to try and force his way here while other cap space and leverage gets dried up. Especially since the sexy markets like Miami and NY are completely unappealing. Assuming he is successful in getting his way I’m sure we can give them JC and the bad deal of Favs so we can hand him a 20M deal. I’m also sure we can dump Bojan into someone’s space in the meantime to make sure we don’t have hard cap issue since we are taking a player who is signed and traded. I think we can do all of this no problem without draft capital.

But yeah... git er done... or we could look at getting budget versions of what he does well for a price we can actually potentially meet.
 
Lonzo is also a guy who has had issues staying on the court. He’s a Toyota... I’d rather pay Mike who is an actual Tesla but needs to go to the shop here and there.

If Mike leaves and all we get is a tpe or a rotation player we don’t have the goods to get Lonzo (and he’s not worth it unless he addresses his weaknesses... which are likely to not change). You’d be more likely getting a Bledsoe or a Rubio.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Okay but we can get 75% of the stuff we want out of Lonzo from a budget version like Delon Wright. You then use the other money and assets saved to address other needs. I think Lonzo can improve but I don’t see him taking another leap. It’s like paying $50 for a t shirt when you can buy the same one for $10. I’ll pocket the $40 difference for something else.

I also think the amount of wild *** assumptions we have to make to think we could get Lonzo make it so obvious it’s not an option... like at all. If we want to dream that’s fine but if I’m dreaming I’m dreaming bigger than Lonzo.

He’s restricted and his teammates really want him back. His team can pay him with no problem at all. A team like NY can roll out a huge contract for him if they want. Worst case NO matches and then they can trade him later for much more than a sign and trade would net.

But sure I’ll bet he wants to come here really bad and is willing to try and force his way here while other cap space and leverage gets dried up. Especially since the sexy markets like Miami and NY are completely unappealing. Assuming he is successful in getting his way I’m sure we can give them JC and the bad deal of Favs so we can hand him a 20M deal. I’m also sure we can dump Bojan into someone’s space in the meantime to make sure we don’t have hard cap issue since we are taking a player who is signed and traded. I think we can do all of this no problem without draft capital.

But yeah... git er done... or we could look at getting budget versions of what he does well for a price we can actually potentially meet.
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I dont see Delon Wright and Lonzo Ball being very much alike at all.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I dont see Delon Wright and Lonzo Ball being very much alike at all.
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Both get steals at a high level... Wright is actually better here. Both are lanky point guards with some offensive deficiencies... Lonzo makes and shoots threes at a higher volume. Lonzo is also a better passer. They both have different styles for sure... but I think they share some similar strengths and weaknesses.

The per36 numbers aren’t much different... Lonzo is pretty unique so I get that they look different but the production is fairly similar. The case for Lonzo is upside... but his next deal could be big enough that it goes sideways... so there is some downside imo.

I just don’t see Lonzo as some amazing solution... definitely not moving heaven and earth for... I’d look for other guys that give us some of the good things he does.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Lonzo is also a guy who has had issues staying on the court. He’s a Toyota... I’d rather pay Mike who is an actual Tesla but needs to go to the shop here and there.

If Mike leaves and all we get is a tpe or a rotation player we don’t have the goods to get Lonzo (and he’s not worth it unless he addresses his weaknesses... which are likely to not change). You’d be more likely getting a Bledsoe or a Rubio.
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If Conley leaves you probably have to look more at getting wings over guards. Getting a playmaker is going to be harder than
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Both get steals at a high level... Wright is actually better here. Both are lanky point guards with some offensive deficiencies... Lonzo makes and shoots threes at a higher volume. Lonzo is also a better passer. They both have different styles for sure... but I think they share some similar strengths and weaknesses.

The per36 numbers aren’t much different... Lonzo is pretty unique so I get that they look different but the production is fairly similar. The case for Lonzo is upside... but his next deal could be big enough that it goes sideways... so there is some downside imo.

I just don’t see Lonzo as some amazing solution... definitely not moving heaven and earth for... I’d look for other guys that give us some of the good things he does.
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Lonzo is closer to Joe Ingles than he is Delon Wright
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
If Conley leaves you probably have to look more at getting wings over guards. Getting a playmaker is going to be harder than
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Probably... it’s why I kinda like Delon... he’s a flexible option at a reasonable cost.

I worry that if Mike leaves and we end up with just wings that it’s too much of the Donovan and JC show.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Probably... it’s why I kinda like Delon... he’s a flexible option at a reasonable cost.

I worry that if Mike leaves and we end up with just wings that it’s too much of the Donovan and JC show.
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I swear that's what 80% of the board has been asking for all these years.

Yeah, I think it would overall not be as good, but that may just be what it is for Utah. Make Donovan become the next Allen Iverson and surround him with defenders and shooters who got size and length.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Lonzo is closer to Joe Ingles than he is Delon Wright
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Well if someone has a prime Joe Ingles available for 8M a year I’ll take that **** all day.

Defensive side of the ball I think Wright is closer to Lonzo... the current version of Joe isn’t nearly as disruptive as the Joe we had 3-4 years ago. Offensively Delon and Lonzo and similar but he gives you some production there without hurting you and it isn’t like Lonzo is an amazing offensive force. I think Lonzo gets like $25M a year... the premium ain’t worth it... when you consider that we’d have to love heaven and earth to get him... pass.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I swear that's what 80% of the board has been asking for all these years.

Yeah, I think it would overall not be as good, but that may just be what it is for Utah. Make Donovan become the next Allen Iverson and surround him with defenders and shooters who got size and length.
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I was one of those but I’m not sure he can toggle between playmaking and scoring like I hoped. I also think in the playoffs it gets really hard to have two creators. If Joe was the same guy in the playoffs that he was in the regular season then it isn’t as big of an issue but I just think he has a harder time getting the separation he needs to create at a high volume in the playoffs.

If we go to the Iverson model Wright is great... one of his historical statistical comparisons is Aaron Mckie.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Well if someone has a prime Joe Ingles available for 8M a year I’ll take that **** all day.

Defensive side of the ball I think Wright is closer to Lonzo... the current version of Joe isn’t nearly as disruptive as the Joe we had 3-4 years ago. Offensively Delon and Lonzo and similar but he gives you some production there without hurting you and it isn’t like Lonzo is an amazing offensive force. I think Lonzo gets like $25M a year... the premium ain’t worth it... when you consider that we’d have to love heaven and earth to get him... pass.
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I'd be surprised if Lonzo gets more than 15 a year, absolutely shocked at anything over 20. I don't think people are high on him like that.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
But sure I’ll bet he wants to come here really bad and is willing to try and force his way here while other cap space and leverage gets dried up. Especially since the sexy markets like Miami and NY are completely unappealing. Assuming he is successful in getting his way I’m sure we can give them JC and the bad deal of Favs so we can hand him a 20M deal. I’m also sure we can dump Bojan into someone’s space in the meantime to make sure we don’t have hard cap issue since we are taking a player who is signed and traded. I think we can do all of this no problem without draft capital.
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Now you're getting it.

But I'd be totally up for Wright because a deal like that would serve multiple purposes. But while Lonzo is unrealistic, I think both are unrealistic. Well, maybe that DL is gone maybe we'd be more aggressive on stuff like that. I'm okay with a run-it-back if we could move a Favors for Wright and then add at least a legitimate NBA player somewhere else, then either get a 5 that actually plays the kind of defense we need, or if Udoka is able to fill that, or if we picked up a different-look 5 (personally I think Quin is way too rigid for the last option and would really struggle with deviating from his "pretend it's Rudy" game plan, and I don't think our personnel can step up on that end of the floor to play a different way defensively).
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I'd be surprised if Lonzo gets more than 15 a year, absolutely shocked at anything over 20. I don't think people are high on him like that.
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That would work into our favor more if we really wanted him. We could give him some extra money as an incentive to come here. He would have to go to the Pelicans and tell them he wanted to come here but it’s not impossible.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I'd be surprised if Lonzo gets more than 15 a year, absolutely shocked at anything over 20. I don't think people are high on him like that.
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If he’s best offer is around 15M a year I bet he just takes the qualifying offer and becomes unrestricted the following year. His qualifying offer is basically 15M.

15M is a rational number NBA free agency has a tendency to get wild... especially for restricted guys because the number has to be high enough that the team hesitates. I would bet that Lonzo is either on the pelicans or Knicks next season... would also bet his contract is north of 4/80M.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If he’s best offer is around 15M a year I bet he just takes the qualifying offer and becomes unrestricted the following year. His qualifying offer is basically 15M.

15M is a rational number NBA free agency has a tendency to get wild... especially for restricted guys because the number has to be high enough that the team hesitates. I would bet that Lonzo is either on the pelicans or Knicks next season... would also bet his contract is north of 4/80M.
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I really dont know the landscape of money available to truly say, but it just seems like people are way lower on Ball than they were before. I think he set's to become an underrated/underpaid guy soon, but I could be way wrong on that.
 
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