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fishonjazz said:
So I think this is the post that you want me to address? (not sure, maybe you can confirm.)

No depth: Why did we have no depth this year? Well we did have good depth at one point. Then we traded some of it away and then we sat guys who could play (sexton and clarkson). We WANTED to have no depth. We were trying to lose. That is why I asked you if you think we sit healthy players for long stretches next season like we did this season. If we dont do that and we play sexton and clarkson then our depth is better than it was at the end of this season when we sucked. I also asked if you think we acquire literally zero players this summer. If we do what i think we will do and acquire some player then our depth improves even more. I also asked you if you think we trade a bunch of rotational players for garbage next season. If you answer no to that question then that also improves our depth. Like I dont think jonny zuzang (or whatever lol), JTA, or dok get any minutes next year. I 100% definitely feel very confident our depth is better next year. Could it be worse? Anything is possible but i feel confident in saying it wont be worse.

Several first or second year players getting major minutes: I want kessler and ochai getting major minutes. They got major minutes this season right? Performed admirably. If we retain clarkson then that concern lessons as ochai minutes goes down. If we play sexton then again, ochai minutes goes down. If we spend some money in free agency (this goes back to my question about if you think we add zero players next summer) like i expect us to then minutes for those first and second year players goes down.

No obvious team identity or strength: We had an amazing top of the league offense for most of the year (someone else posted that we finished the season in the top 5). Especially when we weren't sitting healthy players and trading dudes for garbage. Hardy is an awesome coach. Part of our identity is we never quit. Never go down easy. Always keep it close. We literally tied an all time record for most games decided by a point or less. We led the league in games decided by 10 point or less. So there are two strengths/identities. Very hard working fighting team with a tremendous offense and an amazing coach. Sounds good to me.

As for you saying that i cant even fathom the team being bad or whatever, I already addressed that too. I said its possible we are bad. Anything is possible. I just think its unlikely.

And your last point. We won some close games. We lost some close games (do you have our record in close games btw. I would be curious to see it). That happens. I think its likely that our experience in so many close games helps us going forward. Being in a lot of close games and winning a decent amount is a good thing for our future in my opinion. That bodes well to show good coaching and clutch players who can finish.


That better?
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Oh, I thought there was silent agreement that you weren't interested in the points and we were moving on. I think the conversation has basically finished at this point and it was mostly just people talking passed each other. But you took the time to respond, so I will as well.

There are definitely reasons to think the Jazz will be better next year, and hopefully they are. I am merely trying to introduce some nuance to the discussion. You are determined to draw a line from one to season to the next. Make some surface level observations, and arrive at the conclusion that we are better next year. Maybe all of that pans out, it is definitely possible. But if you've followed sports for as long as you have I'm surprised that you won't acknowledge that it is not always that simple. Look no further than this years Jazz, did anyone think they would almost get to 40 wins? I think the over/under for them was like 24. Sometimes evidence points to one outcome and it doesn't happen that way.

How's this, I can use your method, but to make the opposite point:
-Will the Jazz start next season 10-3?
-Will the Jazz be the #1 seed multiple weeks into next season?
-Will the Jazz have a surplus of veteran talent that gets them off to a hot start next year?
-Will the Jazz regularly be getting near triple doubles and or 40 point games by sup par players like Dunn and THT?
-Will the Jazz win eight games by just one point?
-Will the Jazz get very good injury luck with their two best players?
And so on...
Most of those answers seem kind of obvious, but would point to us taking a step back next season, right? But it is not that simple.

Another way to look at it: What will Vegas set set the Jazz O/U at next year? I'm gonna guess less than 37. Why would they do that? Didn't they read your list of questions which all point directly at us being better next year? Maybe there's more to it than that.

Or put on your pundit cap, and do predictions for next season. Using you unbiased views what do you do when you get to the West? Which teams would you have the Jazz jumping? A few are definitely possible, but I'm not betting anything big on it.

The sitting healthy players thing I think is way overblown. Lauri played most of the games down the stretch despite being banged up and the end. Sexton was injured and we brought him back when we could. Clarkson I guess could have been, but I'm not sure we ever knew what exactly was up with him. I definitely don't think it was a major needle mover either way though.

In closing, I have been excited about the growth of a young sports team I root for, and been absolutely sure that of course they will improve next season, dozens of times. And been bitten in the *** plenty of times to know it rarely goes how you expect it to go. You said we might be better or we might be worse. I think we'd get 100% agreement around here on that point. So I guess we could have skipped all this other stuff. I'm hoping they are better, but conditioned to not just expect it. Hopefully the above is at least enough that you get where I'm coming from.

Go Jazz.
 
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Handlogten's Heros said:
Which teams have injuries next year?

Ummmmm which players are we trading? We offloaded Mike, Don, Rudy, Bogey, Vando, Beasley... we trading Sexton (who didn't play a ton anyway), KO, THT? Don't think there is a lot of lever to pull unless its guys we sign or trade for this offseason.

Are injuries turned off next year?

What if they get better? What if one of the rookies we have is a top 7-8 his rookie year? What if the $50M in space yields a good rotation player.

A slight step back of 2-3 games is not what Locke or most are referring to. I wouldn't even call that a step back as wins/losses can change based on record in close games. Pitching the idea of tanking our way to the 8-10 spot in the lotto as part of the plan is pretty wild imo. We may end up there... but that isn't the plan... and that isn't how the FO will move this summer. If we end up there its because we were hit by injuries and our offseason was bad.
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Acting like us being in the bottom 10 next year isn't a real possibility is pure homerism. The west is brutal. All 11 teams above us in the west this year are going to be right there next year and most of them should be better than this year. Then behind us you have the blazers who should be right there as well if they re-sign Grant and Sharpe makes the progression that I expect. They definitely need to add front court depth but they are in a good position to draft Jarace Walker and with the knicks pick Lively makes a lot of sense. Add another decent bench big in free agency and they would be looking pretty good up front.
 
Chargers Jazz Angels said:
Wow cam Thomas and Brice sensabough on the same team.
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Cam Thomas is guard-sized and he's not a good enough 2-way player to pass on Brice Sensabaugh as a prospect. Nets are effectively going into a rebuild post KD/Kyrie. They do need a point guard other than Spencer Dinwiddie though. Simmons ain't it.
 
sip said:
Acting like us being in the bottom 10 next year isn't a real possibility is pure homerism. The west is brutal. All 11 teams above us in the west this year are going to be right there next year and most of them should be better than this year. Then behind us you have the blazers who should be right there as well if they re-sign Grant and Sharpe makes the progression that I expect. They definitely need to add front court depth but they are in a good position to draft Jarace Walker and with the knicks pick Lively makes a lot of sense. Add another decent bench big in free agency and they would be looking pretty good up front.
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We can be in the bottom ten... the argument is will we be closer to 26 wins (which is bottom 5 in the league). Some are arguing that the plan would be to do tanklite again and end up in the 8-10 range. That is one of the dumbest plans I can think of. Can we end up there? Of course. I've basically said we will be right around 36 wins again most likely.

What we have to realize is that we have 30-50M of cap space depending on if we bring JC back. Do we think Ainge cleared that cap to take on bad salary? Now that might be what happens but I would bet large sums of money that is not the plan, or the backup plan, might not even be the backup plan to the backup plan. Salary dumps just don't yield a great return in this cap environment. So what does the 30-50M bring back... now add that to Lauri, Walker, Sexton, Dunn, THT, KO, Ochai, 3 rookies (the really ****** ones won't play... unlikely all three are super ******). If we keep JC we have 30M... if we let him walk its closer to 50M.

We have 6-8 rotation players, 3 firsts this year (and a **** ton more to add to deals if we want), and 30-50M in space... saying we plan on being 10ish games worse is pretty crazy after watching this year. If we have a ****** offseason, and have some injuries I could see us around 30 wins maybe. that is certainly not the plan though.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Oh, I thought there was silent agreement that you weren't interested in the points and we were moving on. I think the conversation has basically finished at this point and it was mostly just people talking passed each other. But you took the time to respond, so I will as well.

There are definitely reasons to think the Jazz will be better next year, and hopefully they are. I am merely trying to introduce some nuance to the discussion. You are determined to draw a line from one to season to the next. Make some surface level observations, and arrive at the conclusion that we are better next year. Maybe all of that pans out, it is definitely possible. But if you've followed sports for as long as you have I'm surprised that you won't acknowledge that it is not always that simple. Look no further than this years Jazz, did anyone think they would almost get to 40 wins? I think the over/under for them was like 24. Sometimes evidence points to one outcome and it doesn't happen that way.

How's this, I can use your method, but to make the opposite point:
-Will the Jazz start next season 10-3?
-Will the Jazz be the #1 seed multiple weeks into next season?
-Will the Jazz have a surplus of veteran talent that gets them off to a hot start next year?
-Will the Jazz regularly be getting near triple doubles and or 40 point games by sup par players like Dunn and THT?
-Will the Jazz win eight games by just one point?
-Will the Jazz get very good injury luck with their two best players?
And so on...
Most of those answers seem kind of obvious, but would point to us taking a step back next season, right? But it is not that simple.

Another way to look at it: What will Vegas set set the Jazz O/U at next year? I'm gonna guess less than 37. Why would they do that? Didn't they read your list of questions which all point directly at us being better next year? Maybe there's more to it than that.

Or put on your pundit cap, and do predictions for next season. Using you unbiased views what do you do when you get to the West? Which teams would you have the Jazz jumping? A few are definitely possible, but I'm not betting anything big on it.

The sitting healthy players thing I think is way overblown. Lauri played most of the games down the stretch despite being banged up and the end. Sexton was injured and we brought him back when we could. Clarkson I guess could have been, but I'm not sure we ever knew what exactly was up with him. I definitely don't think it was a major needle mover either way though.

In closing, I have been excited about the growth of a young sports team I root for, and been absolutely sure that of course they will improve next season, dozens of times. And been bitten in the *** plenty of times to know it rarely goes how you expect it to go. You said we might be better or we might be worse. I think we'd get 100% agreement around here on that point. So I guess we could have skipped all this other stuff. I'm hoping they are better, but conditioned to not just expect it. Hopefully the above is at least enough that you get where I'm coming from.

Go Jazz.
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Well ya im fully self aware and always acknowledge that im a jazz fan homer so I definitely go glass half full. All season long I was saying how good I thought Ochai was while being told by other fans how he sucks in the g league and sucks in garbage time and is no good. I was always hyping Kessler while being told he isn't ready. Its my style to be positive. Im sorry about that, i cant really help it.
I doubt the jazz start as hot as they did last season. I doubt they finish as cold. Will the jazz have a surplus of veteran talent next season? I think they will have as much or more vets next season. I think the only vet talent that we had that we wont have is conley. I think we add veteran talent in the off season. I doubt the jazz will get near triple doubles and 40 point games by subpar players because those players wont play as much. We will be getting the near triple doubles and 40 point games by better players instead. I think the jazz will continue to win more close games than they lose. I believe in Hardy and think he is good in those situations and we have players that are good in those situations. Who knows about injuries. I know that Donovan mitchell and rudy gobert were our best players for many years and were rarely injured. Same for karl malone and stockton. same for hayward. I dont remember Royce or Bogey missing many games either. But again, who knows. im a homer jazz fan so im certainly not going to expect major injuries to our best players.
I expect kessler to get better, ochai to get better, hardy to get better, lauri to remain awesome, tht to improve, sexton to get better and play more, clarkson to play more. Even KO might get more comfortable with teammates and coaches that he spends more time with and has a full offseason with and get better. i believe in ainge and the front office to draft well and believe in the coaches to develop them well. I believe that ainge is pretty good at trades. I think we are better next year than this year. We can agree to disagree. Thats fine.
I think we win about 43 games and make the playoffs and avoid the play in tourney

I remember seeing jokes about how we could put the delta center janitors and the ball boys into the game and Hardy would have them winning nba games lol. Awesome season. I look forward to another awesome season next year. An even more awesome season. Playoffs baby!
 
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Handlogten's Heros said:
We can be in the bottom ten... the argument is will we be closer to 26 wins (which is bottom 5 in the league). Some are arguing that the plan would be to do tanklite again and end up in the 8-10 range. That is one of the dumbest plans I can think of. Can we end up there? Of course. I've basically said we will be right around 36 wins again most likely.

What we have to realize is that we have 30-50M of cap space depending on if we bring JC back. Do we think Ainge cleared that cap to take on bad salary? Now that might be what happens but I would bet large sums of money that is not the plan, or the backup plan, might not even be the backup plan to the backup plan. Salary dumps just don't yield a great return in this cap environment. So what does the 30-50M bring back... now add that to Lauri, Walker, Sexton, Dunn, THT, KO, Ochai, 3 rookies (the really ****** ones won't play... unlikely all three are super ******). If we keep JC we have 30M... if we let him walk its closer to 50M.

We have 6-8 rotation players, 3 firsts this year (and a **** ton more to add to deals if we want), and 30-50M in space... saying we plan on being 10ish games worse is pretty crazy after watching this year. If we have a ****** offseason, and have some injuries I could see us around 30 wins maybe. that is certainly not the plan though.
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If Lauri goes down with any kind of extended injury then 26 becomes a very real possibility. Also I highly doubt we put that capspace to work in any kind of impactful way. Particularly with the young guys we already have plus 2 to 3 first round picks. I would saying the odds are a lot higher on us focusing on player development next year than trying to add impactful vets this offseason. The second half of the season was great from a player development standpoint and I would hate to stall out that momentum with vets that create a logjam for minutes and likely destroy chemistry. To be honest I don't even want Clarkson back. We already have a potential minutes crunch at the 2 with Sexton, Ochai and THT. I also think the odds of drafting a guy whose best position is sg is pretty high.
 
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sip said:
If Lauri goes down with any kind of extended injury then 26 becomes a very real possibility. Also I highly doubt we put that capspace to work in any kind of impactful way. Particularly with the young guys we already have plus 2 to 3 first round picks. I would saying the odds are a lot higher on us focusing on player development next year than trying to add impactful vets this offseason. The second half of the season was great from a player development standpoint and I would hate to stall out that momentum with vets that create a logjam for minutes and likely destroy chemistry. To be honest I don't even want Clarkson back. We already have a potential minutes crunch at the 2 with Sexton, Ochai and THT. I also think the odds of drafting a guy whose best position is sg is pretty high.
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But is that the plan? It is not. So I don't really think that is relevant. You don't assume perfect health but you also don't assume you will miss your best player. Outside of a fairly catastrophic injury being around 26 wins is kind of just wild. Even Charlotte who was as injury plagued as anyone... got to that number this year.

Danny cleared space for some purpose. If we let JC walk (which is a real possibility) we don't think he does anything meaningful with 50M in space? I doubt Danny is all excited about finding the next big salary dump. Either through trade or in FA he will find a player or two with that space. If he is able to add a player and then you have an injury to Lauri or someone else... well you might end up in the same 35 win range. Its hard to be really good in this league... its also hard to be really bad if you are competent and play hard.

Put it this way. We have at least 5-6 moves this offseason... I consider each draft pick a move. Do we assume we whiff on all 5-6? How many hits will it take to push us over 40 wins? I think we hunt for young FA talent or young-ish guys in trades. I don't see a team offering up something intriguing for our 50M in space as a salary dump. So if we end up there its because we found nothing good and everything dried up. I don't think we are targeting 35ish wins and the 8-10 range... I think we could end up there if things go south.

I'm going to pause this discussion with everyone because like I said... its way too early. We have 5-6 moves... I want to see a few of them first before I project how many wins we will be lined up for.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
But is that the plan? It is not. So I don't really think that is relevant. You don't assume perfect health but you also don't assume you will miss your best player. Outside of a fairly catastrophic injury being around 26 wins is kind of just wild. Even Charlotte who was as injury plagued as anyone... got to that number this year.

Danny cleared space for some purpose. If we let JC walk (which is a real possibility) we don't think he does anything meaningful with 50M in space? I doubt Danny is all excited about finding the next big salary dump. Either through trade or in FA he will find a player or two with that space. If he is able to add a player and then you have an injury to Lauri or someone else... well you might end up in the same 35 win range. Its hard to be really good in this league... its also hard to be really bad if you are competent and play hard.

Put it this way. We have at least 5-6 moves this offseason... I consider each draft pick a move. Do we assume we whiff on all 5-6? How many hits will it take to push us over 40 wins? I think we hunt for young FA talent or young-ish guys in trades. I don't see a team offering up something intriguing for our 50M in space as a salary dump. So if we end up there its because we found nothing good and everything dried up. I don't think we are targeting 35ish wins and the 8-10 range... I think we could end up there if things go south.

I'm going to pause this discussion with everyone because like I said... its way too early. We have 5-6 moves... I want to see a few of them first before I project how many wins we will be lined up for.
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A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
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If that played out then I think our win total is still closer to 36 than 26. I am not saying we can't end up worse. But OKC is starting two rookies and a sophomore. They also added Dieng who developed in the G League.

I don't know that gifting guys major minutes is great for development and think 20-25 minutes to the best guys is plenty... if they show they deserve more then they aren't counterproductive to winning. If they aren't good enough 1 gets the G League dev path. If we did that and Black and Whitmore were getting 25 minutes a nigh and Bufkin is getting 10-15... and they are supplemented with Lauri, Walker, Dunn, KO, Ochai(hopefully he is a bit better), Sexton... it isn't the end of the world.

I think the old adage of rookies don't help you win is a little bit over-used. Rookies have very little shot helping a contender... which is why its hard for GS to find time for their guys, but Keegan Murray is starting for the Kings... OKC's young guys are helping... I think if they are so bad they hurt our chances of winning significantly that Hardy won't ride with them for major minutes. We saw it this year with two very competent and solid rookies.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
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And my last longwinded post isn't to fully disagree here... I just don't think we go Houston mode and give the keys to someone that will hurt our chances of winning. I think the biggest exception would be if we drafted Amen Thompson. If that happens I would change my projections.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
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just speaking for myself, this season I wanted Ochai, sexton, kessler, simone, etc playing big time minutes from day one and wanted conley, KO, clarkson, gay to ride pine. Because I thought the goal was to lose and develop.
Next year I think the goal is to win so I would be fine with Cam, Black, Bufkin having to earn their minutes and ride some pine while vets get the bulk of the minutes..... if that is what is best for winning. I got no problem bring rookies along slowly next year.

I have no idea what the front office actual plan is but if its to tank again then I say just trade Lauri. I dont think that is the plan though. I think the plan is to make the playoffs and use cap space and draft assets to get as good as possible as quickly as possible. Maybe im wrong though and everyone in the jazz organization is cool with slow playing the rebuild and tanking another year.
 
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