If that played out then I think our win total is still closer to 36 than 26. I am not saying we can't end up worse. But OKC is starting two rookies and a sophomore. They also added Dieng who developed in the G League.
I don't know that gifting guys major minutes is great for development and think 20-25 minutes to the best guys is plenty... if they show they deserve more then they aren't counterproductive to winning. If they aren't good enough 1 gets the G League dev path. If we did that and Black and Whitmore were getting 25 minutes a nigh and Bufkin is getting 10-15... and they are supplemented with Lauri, Walker, Dunn, KO, Ochai(hopefully he is a bit better), Sexton... it isn't the end of the world.
I think the old adage of rookies don't help you win is a little bit over-used. Rookies have very little shot helping a contender... which is why its hard for GS to find time for their guys, but Keegan Murray is starting for the Kings... OKC's young guys are helping... I think if they are so bad they hurt our chances of winning significantly that Hardy won't ride with them for major minutes. We saw it this year with two very competent and solid rookies.
I don't think you are putting enough focus on the rest of the west. Even if we are a better team I think we could have a worse record simply because the rest of the west has improved even more.
Griz- Between injuries to key guys and the Morant chaos they underachieved this year in my opinion. Next year I think we see a 60 win level dominance with the high end talent and depth that they have.
Nugs- I think we see a similar level of play next year.
Suns- I think they are a 50+ win team next year with the upside of 60 with really good health
Kings- I don't know if they have more wins next year but I think they will be a better team with Murray getting better in his second season and their core guys entering their prime.
Warriors- I think they snap back next year and are in that 50 win range with Wiggins and Payton back and some of the young guys ready to take on bigger roles.
Mavs- I have a feeling Luka and Kyrie are pretty frustrated right now so as long as they can re-sign Kyrie then I would expect both guys to come into next year ready to ball. At worst I think they are a .500 team next year with 50 win upside if things really click.
Clippers- With their depth and Ballmers willingness to spend to maintain that depth I think they are at worst a .500 team with 55 win upside if Kawhi and PG can play 65+ games together. Kawhi may have started slow this year but he played the best ball of his career offensively once January hit.
Thunder- 40 wins this year and there is no way that aren't at a minimum a 40 win team next year. They just have so much upside with their young guys so I think 50 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation.
Pelicans- 42 wins this year and that was with Ingram missing 37 games and Zion missing 53. If they are even somewhat healthy next year along with improvement from guys like Murphy, Jones and Daniels then 50 wins is certainly a possibility.
Wolves- With KAT missing 53 games and a little bit of locker room disfunction they still won 42 games this year. With their depth and star power I think that is probably a minimum number next year for them as well.
Out of those 10 teams I think there is a good chance that we see an improved win total from 8 out of 10 of them which obviously means more losses for other teams. The only team in that group that I see possibly cratering is the mavs because of the lack of quality depth but you are still talking about 9 good deep teams. That isn't even mentioning the lakers who will definitely still be in win now mode and the blazers who will be in that same mode if they keep Lillard.
The bottom line for me is we could improve quite a bit as an overall team with better depth and still take a pretty big step back in the win column even if we are relatively healthy. I think we are entering an era of depth in the nba that we have never seen. Even the bottom 4 teams this year which were the pistons, rockets, spurs and hornets already have some solid young building blocks not including this years picks. All 4 should be much better teams next year even if it doesn't lead to a lot more wins. I think the rockets upside becomes scary if they luck into Wemby. A frontcourt of Sengun, Wemby and Smith is some crazy length and skill.