My idea on how to fix lottery/tanking

[HermanG]

If you are the team number 9 then dropping just one place down all of a sudden gives you BETTER chances at the top 3 picks then the team with the 4rd worst record under the current system (12.5% for the 1st pick, 12.5% for the second pick, 12.5% for the third pick). . And the current system is the one where the Jazz is tanking like crazy without any shame for that coveted 3rd-4th worst finish. The hustle to become the 7th or 8th worst team instead of the 9-12th would a rare treat to watch.

Just think about the current Jazz under your proposed system. Would you be arguing that they should go all out and fight their way to the 32-50 record instead of tanking? Of course, they would then have no chance of getting Flagg, Harper and whoever will be taken third... but for their valiant effort they may have a one-in-eight chance of getting the 4th pick!

If you decide to argue a point then at least have the decency to read it. There is no 1 in 8 chance to get the 4th pick in that system, and actually 50% of the teams in 9-14 range would pick in top 6.

If there is some generational guy then the best odds you get for that guy are 12.5% and since there are 8 teams who get those odds you dont really need to "tank hard" to get there unless you are a legit playoff caliber team to begin with. So the question is whether you are willing to sabotage your team/franchise to get an outside shot at "that guy" or whether you would rather be building up and keeping the team feisty while knowing that if you happen to miss the playoffs then at least you have a coin toss chance to get a really good prospect to add to that feisty group.

 

[HermanG]

Under the proposed rules, those Group 2 teams are now fully locked out of the chance at a generational talent type of pick (Wemby, Flagg, etc.) so they would be incentivized even higher to not get locked out of a chance.

Generational talents dont come in bunches. We saw that Wemby didnt cause any outrageous tanking around the league despite being probably the most hyped and followed prospect ever.

The choice in those very few years such a guy is even available would be 12.5% chance at that guy at the cost of stabotaging your team vs. being a tryhard team and getting 50% chance to add a quality prospect at 4-6 range.

Hell some years (like last year) when the top is flat there would be a race to the middle to get better odds to win in the lottery.

 

[nyjazz]

It does not need to be complicated, the system just needs a little adjustment to take away the "reward" for being a really bad team. Make pick probabilities so that the worst team cannot get one of the top few picks, for instance, the worst record picks 5-10, with zero chance for 1-4. If we remove the reward for and add a little disincentive to having the worst record, team owners/management/coaches will try to play good enough to avoid being the worst, which will bring up the play of all the bottom teams.

 

[JazzFever]

It does not need to be complicated, the system just needs a little adjustment to take away the "reward" for being a really bad team. Make pick probabilities so that the worst team cannot get one of the top few picks, for instance, the worst record picks 5-10, with zero chance for 1-4. If we remove the reward for and add a little disincentive to having the worst record, team owners/management/coaches will try to play good enough to avoid being the worst, which will bring up the play of all the bottom teams.

I like the incentive to stay out of the very bottom, I dislike the fact that the actual worst team (i.e. has the worst record despite trying desperately not to) gets screwed in their pick.

 

[jazznik]

If you decide to argue a point then at least have the decency to read it. There is no 1 in 8 chance to get the 4th pick in that system, and actually 50% of the teams in 9-14 range would pick in top 6.

If there is some generational guy then the best odds you get for that guy are 12.5% and since there are 8 teams who get those odds you dont really need to "tank hard" to get there unless you are a legit playoff caliber team to begin with. So the question is whether you are willing to sabotage your team/franchise to get an outside shot at "that guy" or whether you would rather be building up and keeping the team feisty while knowing that if you happen to miss the playoffs then at least you have a coin toss chance to get a really good prospect to add to that feisty group.

You still do not understand the main flaw in your proposed system. The current draft system gradually decreases the draft odds so that in general the teams have no strong incentives to drop 1 or 2 places down. Your system creates crazy incentives to drop down from one group to another. Teams from 9-14 will be fighting for a chance to drop to the bottom eight, while the 8-place teams have a strong incentive to not make playoffs and instead have a great chance for the 4-6 pick.

Also, you are absolutely killing the very idea of the play-in. The teams will be putting their G-league squads on the floor to start the play-in games. The only teams not incentivized to tank in your system will be teams with the 1-4 worst record, while teams in the 5-16 standings will all be dropping games like crazy. Under your system only 6-7 teams in each conference will play meaningful basketball, while all other games will be unwatchable.

 

[bopahull]

I think my idea of making the first 6 picks a flat out lottery with all teams getting equal odds then go by record. This wouldn't eliminate tanking completely, but the incentive to tank would be lower.