This is very similar to my thinking. I actually did this earlier tonight on another board.
1. Lakers
2. Jazz (and they will be very close to #1)
3. Thunder
4. Portland
5. Mavericks
6. Nuggets
7. Spurs
8. Rockets
Dark horse: Clippers. I happen think Blake Griffin is going to be an absolute monster in the NBA. He's the closest thing I've seen to a young Karl Malone.
Why I rate the Jazz at 2: In my opinion -- and we've actually seen him prove this over and over again -- Millsap can duplicate much of what Boozer did for us. I don't actually look at Al Jefferson as Boozer's replacement. Boozer's advantage over Paul is slight. Boozer is overrated, Paul underrated, and in the end, it comes very close to being a wash. I therefore see Al Jefferson mostly as a new addition to a team that already would have been as good as they were last season. I think our frontcourt defense will be greatly improved -- not because Jefferson is a great defender -- but by virtue of having Paul as our starting PF; say what you will about Paul, but he brings a toughness and a tenacity on defense that we never saw from Boozer. Is he an all-world defender? No. But he brings the effort. With the addition of Bell, Jefferson, and the (presumable) moving of Paul into the starting lineup, I anticipate a new attitude of toughness on the basketball court next season. We could win 60 games, but I think 58 is about right. If Jefferson actually *can* play defense, look out. I recently read a scouting report on him that said, when he first came into the league, he actually tried quite convincingly on defense, but he would foul out of games. Over the first few seasons in the NBA, he learned (and might have been coached) to back off on defense so that he could stay in games. I think our coaches might actually have something to work with, as far as his defense is concerned.
I don't think the Mavs will take a step backwards, really, but I think they're going to be leapfrogged with the improvements of other teams. Kidd and Dirk have a lot of miles on them, though.
In the Thunder, I just see the continued growth of Durant and that young core.
Assuming Portland gets some of their injured players back to full strength, they will be improved on that alone.
Ditto the Rockets. Is Yao really coming back? (If not, I'd take them off the list, btw)
I rate the Nuggets so low because -- yeah, they've had good runs. But that is a group of guys that falls apart from time to time. Headcases. Some of them are in decline. Billups isn't himself anymore. Neither is Birdman. I don't really think Harrington is going to add anything that they didn't already have. Then again, Karl might work his magic. Who knows?
Spurs are okay. I don't see them improving over last season though. They could quite reasonably continue to slide and continue to get worse.
I'm putting the Suns out because, that's just how tight the west is. If they've gotten 5 or 10 games worse (which I think they have), in the West, they'll slide right out of the playoffs.
My thoughts.