No! I refuse to share a dysfunctional brain with you and Salty. I refuse damnit!
Obama Might Lose This
- Thread starter Stoked
- Start date
No! I refuse to share a dysfunctional brain with you and Salty. I refuse damnit!
A sidenote, but one I've been curious about for awhile:
Why do you prefer RCP, which uses simple averages of the most recent polls, over different sources like Nate Silver that use regression analysis?
I just see you reference RCP a lot and I always find it a little baffling given that it's, to me, got something of an obvious analytical weakness.
I like it because I feel they do a fair job of avoiding bias. The provide articles, videos, polls, charts and what not from the far left, the far right and everything in between. That way I can look at all of it and decide for myself. Always good to hear others thoughts and arguments when a good faith effort is made to logically and rationally make them.
I also feel, pure uninformed opinion here, that an average of all the polls would land somewhere closer to the truth of the publics opinion.
This is the thrust of my question. Why do you prefer a simple average over regression analysis?
I've worked enough with stata to seriously respect the relational insights it gives.
Just what I'm used to dealing with and when the average I taken they seem to be fairly accurate most of the time.
PearlWatson
Well-Known Member
You didn't break anything. It is tough to unseat an incumbent, even an incompetent one.
Pearl, Stoked, Scat, PKM, and anyone else. Did you vote for George Bush once, twice, or never.
Man up
Man up
Yeah I never "man up" and stand my ground.
I voted for Bush once (04). I voted for McCain in 08 (then went home and showered to get the dirty feeling off me) In 2000 I was not in country.
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Voted for Bush in '00. Disillusioned and didn't vote in '04 (both choices were bad). '08, again, both choices were bad (one was a lifetime politician and the second had next to no experience in almost every category possible and nobody knew anything about him) but in the interest of exercising my rights I wrote in my one daughter for pres and my other daughter for veep. '12, my instincts in '08 were correct and Obama has been horrible so I will vote for Romney.
Now you man up and let us know who you voted for in the past three elections and who you are voting for in '12.
Actually he's the opposite. Shock jocks are outrageous because they're using that to get people to tune in and sell ad time. Bill Maher is (as far as I can tell) totally unique in that he doesn't sell ads. There is literally no sponsor he's beholden too. He doesn't have to shill for the gold companies. He doesn't have to worry about pissing off the MacArthur foundation.
Maher isn't exactly perfectly aligned with me, but he's got a certain amount of freedom no one else has. This shows up from time to time in important ways. I remember watching his show shortly after the Deepwater Horizon spill when a debate broke out about greater environmental regulation related to offshore drilling vs. the impact that may have on oil jobs. I remember Maher just looking a commentator in the eye and saying "**** those jobs. Those are bad jobs. If the cost of a few thousand people working is repeated disasters on this scale then they should do something else." As far as I can tell, there is no one else on any other network who could get away with that. HBO effectively insulates him from being bullied or muzzled by anyone and that's valuable in and of itself, it also markedly makes him different than anyone else. I regard Maher as what would happen if Colbert didn't work for Viacom and was more interested in marijuana.
He might not be beholden to anyone. That does nto change the fact that he words things in a particular way to create shock value. He is a pathetic sham and I am pretty much done listening to an arguement when people start refrencing Maher. They might as well reference limbaugh while they're at it.
I didn't vote for Bush either time because I fealt being too young to cast an informed vote was unethical. I will vote for Romney because he is the first real candidate since Kennedy.
Why don't you man up and prove you aren't a party shill by telling us all the things you like about Mitt Romney. The stage is yours:
Holy hell where to start. This is one of the better trolls I've read in a month.
I'll take this challenge:
I like the idea of stapling a green card/citizenship to every legitimate PhD awarded worldwide. That's a good idea.
Deduction caps are a good idea (although not paired with across the board cuts).
I am open to the idea of Reagan Economic Zones, depending on further details.
I am open to the idea of consolidating some areas of federal government, particularly with respect to intelligence and security services.
Yeah, a couple decent one-liners.
+1
https://washingtonexaminer.com/poll...lue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UIEtccXA_Lt
A poll that shows Romney ahead in PA. I think it is an outlier but one that shows Romney winning? That shows it is narrowing at least.
A poll that shows Romney ahead in PA. I think it is an outlier but one that shows Romney winning? That shows it is narrowing at least.