OFFICIAL Postseason race thread *Sticky*
- Thread starter TheGobertReport
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Just Ted
Well-Known Member
I am neither.... I am a nudist.
If the Jazz do nothing by this trade deadline then they better show up hard this offseason and next season or Hayward is gone. Status quo and he leaves.
fishonjazz
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Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
Lol. Pessimists think that realism is negative. That's why they are called pessimists.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
1. OK, call me a pessimist. I pessimistically think there's a very good chance DL does nothing at the deadline (and BTW, that might be a GOOD thing if teams want Burks or Hood, etc.). Jazz, like most teams, deal with more injuries here and there. The weak bench continues to be weak and it takes another few weeks for Burks to return and then get into game shape. Houston makes a trade and Portland continues to have their dynamic duo play outstanding ball. Utah finishes 41-41 and misses the playoffs.
2, OK, now let me be optimistic. Jazz play very well, Burks comes back strong, Utah goes 18-12 over the last thirty games (that's .600, BTW), despite having more away games (where they've played at a .360 clip). They finish 44-38. Will that get them the 5th seed or even the 6th? See the next point.
3. Let me be a realist and just state the facts, Dallas plays almost equally well at home as Utah does and has played four more road games than the Jazz. Memphis won a road game without Gasol. Yes, it was against Brooklyn. But they won. Utah played against NO and lost. So can't completely discount Memphis' win. Memphis would need to go 13-16 for Utah to tie them in the standings (if Utah plays .600 ball).
4. Overly optimistic case for Utah is 5th seed (overtaking Portland, Dallas and Memphis and staying ahead of Houston). Still optimistic is 6th and a matchup against OKC. More likely, IMO, is 7th or 8th seed and a first round matchup against SA or GS. Optimistically, I guess you can say being in the playoffs is a honor and watching SA or GS do laps around the team is great to learn from.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
And optimists think realism is pessimism if it is anything LESS than their rosy outlook.
Let's revisit this series of posts at the end of the year and see who was closer to the truth.
Disclaimer: a trade for a PG like Teague or another impact player changes my outlook. "Realism" would be adjusted upwards since the team would ostensibly be better.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
1. If they upgrade in the summer does it guarantee he stays?
2. If he gets a max contract can they keep the Gobert, Hayward, Favors, Hood and Exum lineup together in 2018/19 when all are off their rookie contracts without venturing deep into the luxury tax?
3. Would the Jazz, given the punitive nature of the luxury tax, especially for "repeat" offenders, be willing to go into the tax to keep those 5?
4. If they do, what would the bench have to look like?
5. Given the salary outlook in 2018/19, CAN Lindsey significantly upgrade the team from without? Would impact FA's be willing to sign 2yr deals or take less in a year in which virtually every team is going to be awash in cap space?
Just keeping it real!
Even though the answers to those questions may not be what we want to see, hear and discuss.
IMO,
A. Realistically, a significant upgrade MUST come from a trade for someone whose contract will expire prior to 2018/19. Or from a draft pick who explodes. The latter COULD happen (a la Gobert, Hood).
B. Or the team loses Hayward or Favors, but the net gain from not giving out a huge contract and signing (or getting via trade) a couple of players in their place is greater than keeping them.
I expect reality to be somewhere between you and I tbh. While my view might be tinted so is yours. You are discounting very legit reasons for where the Jazz are at and only going with negative things.
Also it is not optimistic to say that playoff experience, even losing, is great for this team. That is reality. Optimism is saying they get the 5th seed and upset the Clippers.
Keep on being a debby downer and cherry picking stats to support your negative view.
Either way go jazz!
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
The above, especially the salary estimations for 2018 are a huge basis for my criticism of DL. He KNEW we already had at least 3 max-worthy players (Gobert, Favors and Hayward), one that was going to be very, very expensive (Hood) and one who showed a ton of potential (Exum). There were still players who were looking for short-term deals to take advantage of the upcoming cap situation. He failed to take advantage, signing such great players as Booker, Withey and Ingles and bringing over Pleiss and Neto. Some of those players have made nice contributions, but nothing of huge impact.
Instead, DL needed to strike when the Jazz had ample room (IINM, they've been 28th in team payroll for the last two years). There will NOT be the same opportunity in 2016. Jazz will have loads of cap room, but can't offer a huge deal if it extends into 2018/19 - unless they anticipate Hayward or Favors leaving or being traded (or Hood or Gobert).
Instead, DL needed to strike when the Jazz had ample room (IINM, they've been 28th in team payroll for the last two years). There will NOT be the same opportunity in 2016. Jazz will have loads of cap room, but can't offer a huge deal if it extends into 2018/19 - unless they anticipate Hayward or Favors leaving or being traded (or Hood or Gobert).
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Speaking of cherry-picking, how about that 3rd best PPG defense you cited? Last I heard, teams also play offense, where the Jazz are 5th worst. Stating those two facts together is realism and fairness.
I never said Utah wasn't a very good defensive team, although I've seen them struggle getting stops to finish games (4th quarter against NO was an example) - and that concerns me. But admittedly they have a terrible offense at times, often putting them into holes after horrible quarters.
So yes, go Jazz. I've been a fan for more years than many posters have been alive. And before that, I cheered for the Utah Stars who actually DID bring a championship to Utah (many of you will have to look that up). But honestly, my opinion is that this team is a 7th/8th seed at best.
Except you critiqued them unfairly for their defense. So I provided the other half you were conveniently ignoring.
Also:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/offensive-efficiency
Jazz are 12th in offensive efficiency, 18% in shooting %. Hardly terrible.
And to me that is pessimism not realism.
Either way I am not going to continue ruining this thread with this argument. I'll enjoy my tinted glasses and you try to enjoy yours. Cheers
Jazz are 14th in defensive efficiency. OPPG is skewed by our pace as is our PPG.
That's true. But so is these numbers being skewed by our injuries as well.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Yikes! You just brought religion into this?
Let me grab some popcorn, sit back and enjoy the discussion.
It was just a joke.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
I know. So was my witty response.
Sun is shining in the Bay Area. It's 70 degrees. Great day to be alive. Jazz are going to win the next 30!
You're living the life - good on ya!!!
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Would be even better if I had a job!