I don't read too much into last night's loss because the team was clearly tired due to the B2B, but I think HCA is going to be important regardless of what the coaching staff and players are saying right now (which is what they're supposed to say anyway). The Thunder have one of the toughest courts in the league and an amazing playoff atmosphere that could affect the Jazz at some points (a good start in game 1 would be huge), and it will probably factor in the star treatment that Westbrook and to a lesser extent PG are surely going to get, with a ton of trips to the line.
I also expect OKC to put a lot of pressure inside on both ends and make it a very physical game, and we've seen Rudy struggle against Adams before, and the team fail to secure defensive rebounds in some key moments during the year. The Thunder are the top offensive rebounding team in the league and if the Jazz want to have a chance to advance they need to keep OKC from getting extra possessions.
The Jazz are a better all-around team and they will definitely have a chance to win it, but all in all I think the Thunder are favorites here because they are more experienced, they have HCA and more star power to open some distance in what should be some really hard-fought games, and I think the Jazz are going to find they need some more firepower in their starting unit if they want to become true contenders in the future. I have the Thunder winning in 7, but hopefully Utah can win the rebounding battle (or at least keep it close), Rubio can slow Westbrook down a bit (he's done it already) and the Jazz can take one game in OKC and wrap it up at home, prolonging what's already been an extremely succesful and enjoyable season.
