Optimistic Jazz Math

[Bodhi]

I wasn't meaning to nit pick. You're onto the downside to the huge upside. If all four of these players turn out how some thought they would before the season started then the Jazz are going to have a fun time trying to keep four max guys. I don't think it will turn out anywhere near that rosie but having even one max and 3 12-14mm per players is a hefty load. NBA teams need Duncans and Parkers, and a grip of cheap inpact filler.

I personally dont think any of them will warrant max money, but I do think one or more could be a very integral piece to a potential championship run. One that was facilitated by our front office having a mix of luck and smarts in setting us up with a very solid, complimentary line up to an as of yet un-named max type guy.

Can we lure one to Utah in FA? Who knows, but I think our chances are much greater if we arent in a situation that Dwight Howard is trying to get out of. Dwights not trying to leave because he hates Orlando, he's wanting out because financially Otis SMith as gotten them into a terrible financial situation that wont allow them much, if any, opportunity to make more progress. They are sort of stuck.

My point all along hasn't been about these guys being max guys, but rather very solid player (some better than others) on value added contracts so we can go beyond them with other guys that CAN get us to a championship.

 

[BluesRocker]

Great analysis, enough to make me register so i could respond to your comments. It wouldn't surprise me if KOC is operating like you mentioned above with your theory of breaking down playing time. I hated seeing Wes matthews go a couple of years ago because he played hard on both sides of the court, right type of work ethic, team player, ect. It almost happened the year before with Milsap. I don't want to see it again with some of our young guys. I agree with your assessment above, you are not missing anything. Great insight!

You just made the biggest mistake of your life. You wont be able to leave now. Jazzfanz has you now. Your soul is ours

 

[Stifle Tower]

We are in great shape as a franchise, as long as our youth develop into solid NBA players. I hope and pray that the youngsters develop and become players we can build around. But...

-Favors, has few offensive moves and is not consistent. He is still raw, but needs a post-up game.
-Hayward, Has no confidence in his shot and has a lot of turnovers. He may never be a good shooter and he gets overpowered on defense.
-Burks, Can drive great, but is wildly out of control. Great open court player, but he needs to work in a half-court offense.
-Kanter, He is a rebounding machine, but is clueless on offense and doesn't know how to move on defense. I don't know if I can recall a high first round draft pick this raw, who has developed into a dependable NBA starter. He could be the next Darko or the next Jermaine O'Neal.

Let's all hope that the youngersters reach their potential.

Talk about Debbie Downer. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

[Stifle Tower]

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

Actually, no. Drafted 1st-rounders have no bargaining power. Salaries are slotted and raises are controlled by the CBA.

So looking into the magic crystal ball, KOC just KNEW what 29 other GM's did not: that Wesley Matthews would be that one in a million player who goes from undrafted player to starter in half a season.

Undrafted players...if they make a team, usually don't have their contracts even guaranteed until the deadline. Wes just kept getting better as the season progressed. And kudos to him for the HUGE contract. Outside of Portland, you'll find 29 GM's who thought the kind of money Wesley got was absurd. Name the last NBA player to do what Wes did? There are none. No one has ever gone undrafted, then signed a contract for that amount of money the next offseason.

In hindsight, given Utah's financial constraints, had the Jazz matched the offer for Matthews, another player would have needed to be dumped. And in that situation, it may have required giving UP a pick (just like moving Hayward's salary required Maynor to be included). I like Matthews; I wish he were still on the Jazz. But I'm solidly behind KOC and Greg for not awarding a 1/2 season starter that kind of a contract.

 

[JohnnyClutch]

Actually, no. Drafted 1st-rounders have no bargaining power. Salaries are slotted and raises are controlled by the CBA.

So looking into the magic crystal ball, KOC just KNEW what 29 other GM's did not: that Wesley Matthews would be that one in a million player who goes from undrafted player to starter in half a season.

Undrafted players...if they make a team, usually don't have their contracts even guaranteed until the deadline. Wes just kept getting better as the season progressed. And kudos to him for the HUGE contract. Outside of Portland, you'll find 29 GM's who thought the kind of money Wesley got was absurd. Name the last NBA player to do what Wes did? There are none. No one has ever gone undrafted, then signed a contract for that amount of money the next offseason.

In hindsight, given Utah's financial constraints, had the Jazz matched the offer for Matthews, another player would have needed to be dumped. And in that situation, it may have required giving UP a pick (just like moving Hayward's salary required Maynor to be included). I like Matthews; I wish he were still on the Jazz. But I'm solidly behind KOC and Greg for not awarding a 1/2 season starter that kind of a contract.

So how does us demanding a 2 year TEAM option hurt us in any way, shape or form? Give him 1 year guaranteed, and if he pans out, we get him for 2 more years. If he doesn't, it's sianara baby. Simple.

You don't think that ANY undrafted rookie wouldn't jump at the chance? They have no bargaining power.

 

[billyshelby]

So how does us demanding a 2 year TEAM option hurt us in any way, shape or form? Give him 1 year guaranteed, and if he pans out, we get him for 2 more years. If he doesn't, it's sianara baby. Simple.

You don't think that ANY undrafted rookie wouldn't jump at the chance? They have no bargaining power.

Dude. You're light years away from getting this.

 

[JohnnyClutch]

Dude. You're light years away from getting this.

Dude. You're on drugs.

 

[billyshelby]

Dude. You're on drugs.

Just so I understand you, you think we should offered Wes a 2 year "team option", right? Which you define as Wes signs for one guaranteed year, and then if the Jazz want, they could get him for two more?

 

[JohnnyClutch]

We should have offered him before he was signed -- the first time. That is the model I suggest we use going forward.

 

[NAOS]

We should have offered him before he was signed -- the first time. That is the model I suggest we use going forward.

I, for one, would like to know how JohnnyClutch is wide of the mark on this proposition. I'll admit that I'm less knowledgeable about these kinds of issues than many on this board.

On the face of things, I'm not a big fan of the one-year deal. If needed, I'd inflate my proposal for the guaranteed year by as much as 10-15% percent (depending on the circumstance) in order to get the second-year team option.

Perhaps there was something in the Matthews case that stood in the way of such a transaction? For example, I can't remember when his deal became guaranteed, but perhaps it wasn't until he and his agent saw that he was likely good enough to ink another contract at year's end with more guaranteed money, and therefore that any contract with a team-option was less desirable.

If you want to make this conversation more topical, then perhaps you can explain how the Jazz wouldn't be better served by having Howard on a deal with a team option for a second year. I'm sure Howard and his agent preferred a one-year deal -- so that he could play himself into more guaranteed money -- but how much more money would we have needed to offer him THIS YEAR in order for him to consider such a deal? This is important because, if healthy, he has already shown himself to be a bargain, and will almost assuredly sign for much more than the value of this contract.

I hope I've been clear.

 

[NAOS]

If Burks was ready for 30 next year (he won't be)...

noted. you've been right about a few things this year, but you've also been a little too hard on the rookies. I'm not making this kind of judgment right now.

 

[freakazoid]

I, for one, would like to know how JohnnyClutch is wide of the mark on this proposition.

If you want to make this conversation more topical, then perhaps you can explain how the Jazz wouldn't be better served by having Howard on a deal with a team option for a second year.

https://webfiles.uci.edu/lcoon/cbafaq/salarycap.htm#Q51

•Team Options give the team the right to invoke the option. There can be only one option year (except in the case of rookie scale contracts).

•Options can be included in any multiyear contract, but ETOs are allowed only with five or six year contracts.

 

[NAOS]

https://webfiles.uci.edu/lcoon/cbafaq/salarycap.htm#Q51

cool, man. Thanks. repp'd

When I step back and think about it, this makes good sense from perspective of players and labor negotiations.

 

[billyshelby]

For Wes to get an extension it would have had to be an Early Bird extension. The deadline for that this year is Jan. 25th, and I presume it was the same in the previous CBA. There is no negotiation after that point. And it would have been totally illogical for the Jazz to offer Wes any kind of multiyear commitment in January. They waited until January just to guarantee his deal.

KOC handled the situation the same way every other GM would have. In the end, Wes was overpaid by Portland and KOC smartly didn't match.

 

[JohnnyClutch]

Hmmmm. That sucks. There should be an unsigned-rookie scale.