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Playoff watch

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idiot

Well-Known Member
Is it too early to have thread devoted to looking ahead to the playoffs?

I don't know whether it figured into what the Jazz did at the trade deadline, but as things stand now and barring a major upset, it's highly unlikely that we'll draw either the Clippers or Lakers this year. Our most likely opponents are Denver or Dallas in the first round, and Phoenix and/or Golden State/Memphis in the second and third.

In some senses, maybe this lessens the immediate need for the mythical "big wing defender" that we couldn't obtain at the trade deadline? Most of these teams are dangerous because of guards, smaller wings, and centers, except for Luka. Would Covington (the most realistic target that we perhaps missed on) have helped against Luka? Luka's a problem, no doubt. But to me, if we can't handle the Mavs as we currently stand, having that big wing defender probably wasn't going to be the answer in the first place.
 
Jazz had an awful January and are realistically out of the running for a top-2 seed. That being the case, I think the Jazz would be content with the 4th seed, facing either Dallas or Denver in the 1st round. Luka might average close to 40 points, but the Jazz would really have to fall apart to lose a series to the current Mavs team that no longer has KP or THJ. We've had some success against Denver this year, mostly because they have almost no bench depth. Jokic is scary, but I think the Jazz should ultimately pull through a series with the Nuggets, as I don't think they have the pieces they need to defend.

I actually think the Jazz believe they can contend with Phoenix in the 2nd round because the Suns play traditional 5s and the Jazz should be able to disrupt Chris Paul by trapping him early. The Jazz experimented in their recent games with the Suns and hung close without Rudy or Donovan in the rotation.

It's possible the Jazz can catch Memphis for the 3rd seed, as they're only 3 games back in the loss column with 26 games to play. I'm just not sure what the advantage to this would be. Our 1st-round matchup would still be Dallas or Denver. If anything, Denver (who is currently the 6th seed) should be better than Dallas if Jamal Murray comes back and contributes.

If Draymond Green isn't going to make it back 100% for the Warriors, then maybe the Jazz would want to be lined up to play them in the 2nd round. The Warriors are awfully small in the paint, which limits them to spacing the floor with wings and having them dive-bomb to the rim where our bigs would be waiting for them. The Jazz showed some ability to defend the Ws in their last game. The Warriors do, however, switch 1 - 5 and trap our guards, which is one of the schemes we've had trouble with. Steph and Klay might also find the nuclear codes. So it's hard to say. Memphis is a team that could potentially take out the Warriors. Maybe the Jazz sit back and see if the Grizz can pull off the upset.

I actually like the Jazz's chances against Memphis. The key to that series would be Jaren Jackson Jr. and how effective he now is as a stretch-5 and primary paint protector. He's made strides since last season, but whether it's enough to tilt the series remains to be seen. Ja is the same guy he was last year, perhaps with a few more long 3-balls.
 
Elizah Huge said:
The best realistic scenario for us at the moment is getting the 2 seed and Golden State getting the 3 seed.
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If Draymond is out or hobbled, I'd probably agree with this. However, 6 games is a lot to make up with only 25 games remaining. That's what we're facing if we beat Houston tomorrow.

I wouldn't mind getting the 3rd seed and playing GSW in the 2nd round.
 
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The thing with Dallas is that I just don't think they have enough to beat us. Let's say Luka goes off and averages 40 pts. for the whole series. Lets say Brunson is amazing and averages 25 pts. Where are the other 50 points going to come from? Without Kristaps or THJ, their next scorer has to be Spencer Dinwiddie. Bullock, Kleber and DFS might team up for 30 pts on a good night. Dinwiddie is averaging 12.6 pts and 31% 3pt shooting this year. He'd have to reach deep into his bag. I just don't see it.

Plus Dallas doesn't have anyone to put on Gobert unless they experiment with Boban. On top of that, their coach is Jason Kidd without a softdrink. That series should be over in no more than 6 games.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If Draymond is out or hobbled, I'd probably agree with this. However, 6 games is a lot to make up with only 25 games remaining. That's what we're facing if we beat Houston tomorrow.

I wouldn't mind getting the 3rd seed and playing GSW in the 2nd round.
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We just need to win all 25 games, easy peasy.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If Draymond is out or hobbled, I'd probably agree with this. However, 6 games is a lot to make up with only 25 games remaining. That's what we're facing if we beat Houston tomorrow.

I wouldn't mind getting the 3rd seed and playing GSW in the 2nd round.
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Down to 5 games just like that in one day.
 
Not that it matters for anything, but if the GS score holds up, we'll have nearly caught them for second in the league in net rating, after having been behind almost a whole point before the evening started.
 
With the Clippers having a down year, the Nuggets having a down year, the Lakers falling apart and the Mavericks not getting their act together, this would be a good year for the Jazz to really go for it. Next year, the Clippers are going to be tough, Denver could re-tool, and Memphis is likely to continue improving. We'll see what Chris Paul can do with the Suns at age 37.
 
Memphis is the best rebounding team in the league. It's why they win so much. Nearly everyone on that team rebounds.
 
It's likely the Nuggets will get Murray and Porter Jr. back before the playoffs...they're not a team I would want to face in the first round. Bring on the Mavs.
 
Jingled said:
It's likely the Nuggets will get Murray and Porter Jr. back before the playoffs...they're not a team I would want to face in the first round. Bring on the Mavs.
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Jazz should beat the Mavs. Jazz are better offensively overall, they shoot better, and they have more quality depth. Jazz are also a better rebounding team. Honestly, they should win in 5 games.
 
Jingled said:
It's likely the Nuggets will get Murray and Porter Jr. back before the playoffs...they're not a team I would want to face in the first round. Bring on the Mavs.
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I thought Porter Jr was almost certainly out for the season, if not for his career.
 
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