Poll: Who is going to win, Bron or Steph?
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spycam1
Well-Known Member
Great article on the Finals match up:
https://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/15521430/deep-dive-dream-nba-finals?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nba
https://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/15521430/deep-dive-dream-nba-finals?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nba
spycam1
Well-Known Member
I'm calling the upset, and here's why:
What has been successful against GSW? Slow pace and beating them down low (specifically on the glass, because then it slows the game down even more). Memphis and Cleveland last year both held 2-1 series leads over GS, and it was largely because of this. OKC this year held a 3-1 lead, and I'm sure their ability to kill GS on the glass was a big reason why.
BUT... GS has always managed to come back in these cases. The 3 ball, over the course of a 7 game series, has been the great equalizer; even as they get destroyed on the glass, meaning they most likely have fewer possessions than the opposition, they manage to score more points per possession, which negates the fact that they get out-rebounded.
So how will Cleveland be able to get over the hump?
This is my thinking:
Out of the 16 teams to play in the playoffs this year, Cleveland ranks 14th in pace (they are the third slowest of all playoff teams).
Slow pace? Check.
IMO the best indicator of rebound ability is not RPG or RPP; it's simply TRB%. Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love are both averaging a TRB% of about 18% in the postseason, and to top it all off LeBron is averaging about 14%. To put that in perspective, Andre Drummond, the league's leading rebounder during the regular season (both in terms of RPG and TRB%), averaged a TRB% of 17% this postseason (his only series also just happened to be against Cleveland; they dropped his TRB% by 8 percentage points compared to his regular season numbers).
To put it further into perspective, Steven Adams averaged a TRB% of 17% this postseason and Serge Ibaka averaged 11%, with Durant averaging 10%. In other words, all three of Cleveland's front court players are averaging a better TRB% than OKC's.
Now let's look at the other team to have a series lead against GS at some point: the 2015 Grizzlies. During last year's postseason Gasol averaged a TRB% of 15% and Zach Randolph averaged 17%. Not as good as Cleveland, even before you factor in LeBron's rebounding.
Rebounding? Check.
This is very likely the best rebounding frontcourt GS has ever faced.
Now this is where Cleveland differs from the 2015 Cavs, 2015 Grizzlies, and 2016 Thunder: the 3 point line. The Cavs this post season are averaging more 3s made per game than any team in playoff history. The thing that has served as the great equalizer for GS in the past against teams that could ugly up the game with slow pace and rebounding suddenly may not be the equalizer that it once was. What do they do against a team that can out-rebound them, slow the game down and keep up with them from 3?
It could be the perfect storm.
Then you factor in the fact that Green could miss multiple games if he ****s up, and the fact that Cleveland also averages a better TOV%...
Cleveland could actually pull this off.
What has been successful against GSW? Slow pace and beating them down low (specifically on the glass, because then it slows the game down even more). Memphis and Cleveland last year both held 2-1 series leads over GS, and it was largely because of this. OKC this year held a 3-1 lead, and I'm sure their ability to kill GS on the glass was a big reason why.
BUT... GS has always managed to come back in these cases. The 3 ball, over the course of a 7 game series, has been the great equalizer; even as they get destroyed on the glass, meaning they most likely have fewer possessions than the opposition, they manage to score more points per possession, which negates the fact that they get out-rebounded.
So how will Cleveland be able to get over the hump?
This is my thinking:
Out of the 16 teams to play in the playoffs this year, Cleveland ranks 14th in pace (they are the third slowest of all playoff teams).
Slow pace? Check.
IMO the best indicator of rebound ability is not RPG or RPP; it's simply TRB%. Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love are both averaging a TRB% of about 18% in the postseason, and to top it all off LeBron is averaging about 14%. To put that in perspective, Andre Drummond, the league's leading rebounder during the regular season (both in terms of RPG and TRB%), averaged a TRB% of 17% this postseason (his only series also just happened to be against Cleveland; they dropped his TRB% by 8 percentage points compared to his regular season numbers).
To put it further into perspective, Steven Adams averaged a TRB% of 17% this postseason and Serge Ibaka averaged 11%, with Durant averaging 10%. In other words, all three of Cleveland's front court players are averaging a better TRB% than OKC's.
Now let's look at the other team to have a series lead against GS at some point: the 2015 Grizzlies. During last year's postseason Gasol averaged a TRB% of 15% and Zach Randolph averaged 17%. Not as good as Cleveland, even before you factor in LeBron's rebounding.
Rebounding? Check.
This is very likely the best rebounding frontcourt GS has ever faced.
Now this is where Cleveland differs from the 2015 Cavs, 2015 Grizzlies, and 2016 Thunder: the 3 point line. The Cavs this post season are averaging more 3s made per game than any team in playoff history. The thing that has served as the great equalizer for GS in the past against teams that could ugly up the game with slow pace and rebounding suddenly may not be the equalizer that it once was. What do they do against a team that can out-rebound them, slow the game down and keep up with them from 3?
It could be the perfect storm.
Then you factor in the fact that Green could miss multiple games if he ****s up, and the fact that Cleveland also averages a better TOV%...
Cleveland could actually pull this off.
♪alt13
Well-Known Member
The Cavs aren't good enough at contesting shots, chasing teams off the 3 point line, and they don't have anyone that can't deny Curry the ball even for short stretches.(maybe James but the rest of their defense would fall apart if they put him in that role) You have to reduce GSW efg% to beat them because you can't match it otherwise. That's what OKC was able to do, they actually didn't beat them on the boards that much if at all in their wins. The Cavs won't be able to do it.
spycam1
Well-Known Member
Umm...
They can also throw Shumpert at him.
Also, Love contests more 3s than anyone on GS other than Green. And Tristan Thompson contests more 2s than anyone on GS other than Green.
I do think they need to step up their defense, but it's not as bad as you're making it sound.
Miggs
Well-Known Member
They can throw Della or Shumpert at him but then there offense badly suffers. That's their issue. Bench scoring is God awful and Love and Irving suck defensively. They need a couple more two way players.
Also those playoff rebounding numbers are inflated because Atlanta was the 2nd worst TR% team in the league this year and Toronto was missing Jonas for much of the series. I'm not saying they're not a good rebounding team. They are. Third best in the league this season in fact.
I just loathe Thompson tbh and that guy should not be sniffing starter minutes. It's Lebron's own fault for insisting they re-sign him.
Also those playoff rebounding numbers are inflated because Atlanta was the 2nd worst TR% team in the league this year and Toronto was missing Jonas for much of the series. I'm not saying they're not a good rebounding team. They are. Third best in the league this season in fact.
I just loathe Thompson tbh and that guy should not be sniffing starter minutes. It's Lebron's own fault for insisting they re-sign him.
carolinajazz
Well-Known Member
Agree, 100%!
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Honestly, I don't think the cavs have the athleticism or size to beat them.
What made OKC great was that they had the size to dominate inside and the athleticism and length to really take it to the Splash Bros and Green. If it wasn't for Klay's insane game of 11 3 pointers in game 6 and some untimely turnovers by OKC, we'd be watching a different final.
Honestly, OKC was closer this year to winning it all than our Jazz have ever been. Honestly, I can't help but feel bad for OKC. If Thompson "just" hits 9 3 pointers, OKC is probably in the finals right now. Incredible.
If they stay healthy all year long next year I can see them winning home court and winning it all. Unfortunately, health for Westbrook and Durant is always an issue...
What made OKC great was that they had the size to dominate inside and the athleticism and length to really take it to the Splash Bros and Green. If it wasn't for Klay's insane game of 11 3 pointers in game 6 and some untimely turnovers by OKC, we'd be watching a different final.
Honestly, OKC was closer this year to winning it all than our Jazz have ever been. Honestly, I can't help but feel bad for OKC. If Thompson "just" hits 9 3 pointers, OKC is probably in the finals right now. Incredible.
If they stay healthy all year long next year I can see them winning home court and winning it all. Unfortunately, health for Westbrook and Durant is always an issue...
Just one game
gregbroncs
Well-Known Member
This sounds great. But Cleveland did this against teams that don't get out of the 1st round in the west while GS did it against true championship contenders. I expect the series to be interesting. But I don't expect Cleveland to win 3 games. I think it will be over in 5.
Miggs
Well-Known Member
Honestly.
Ignacio
Active Member
It certainly has been.