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Rational CoViD-19 Discussion Thread: Science vs. Politics

Chloroquine....

https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32074550/full_citation

China has been using this...… wants it approved for use elsewhere. Another positive indicator for China and Xi in willingness to help out.

Here's a good link

https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...rus-covid19-drugs-malaria-research-treatments

Chloroquine has long been used as an antimalarial, and more recently in autoimmune diseases. It works as an antiviral, it is thought, by changing the pH within the cell where the virus is trying to replicate, preventing assembly of new virus.

Other antivirals are specific enzyme blockers that prevent specific steps in viral replication.

Choroquine, especially in long-term uses, has some problems in use. Dosage levels have been lowered in the view of reducing side effects which can be permanent, and long-delayed in showing up.

still better than dead,.
 
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@Red Here's a Google headliner site with some numbers....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just a bit of reasoning..... some "death" cases are people who died before any tests were done, but the remains on evaluation showed the diagnostic. Some "death" results may not even be based on an actual viral specific test, just a guess. We don't know how these numbers are checked or reported....

I suspect a lot of "cleared" results..... survivor data.... suffer from the same issues mathematically.

"confirmed" active cases may have the same "errors" as well.

10k deaths in 90k closed cases would figure 11% mortality, but no one..... not even the worst fearmongers I can find..... are saying THAT.

I see estimates of infective periods for carriers run out as long as 30d, and we just have not got good tests enough out there to get that measure.

But a 140k "active case" inventory is matched by a 7k "serious case figure". 5%, not 11%, on the "denominator" that is likely only 5% of the real denominator.... meaning over a million people exposed, mostly active spreaders right now.

So we've lost 10K, and have 7k in intensive care world-wide, as of today...… and probably 2 million unknowing/unknowable "carriers" out on the streets, infecting up to 3 people each within a few days' time.

The logic for restricted travel and social distance is that is how we can make these "carriers" dead-end infectives who transmit to no one. In 30 d they'll all be has-beens. mostly living "has-beens" who are no longer a danger, and no longer possible new cases.

Another just conversational observation here, is that the same guesses would mean that non-vulnerable antibody-competent stats only lag the disease by a month...., if no efforts to slow it down were made, and in that scenario we have only about 20k mortality in around 3M cases.....which would untreated, unmanagaed, result in a mortal rate of 0.15&

Of course, such an optimistic rate requires we don't overwhelm our health care infrastructure and careworkers like some initial outbreaks have done.....
 
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The Worldometer today, Saturday March 21st:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

300 k "active cases", 106k "closed cases", 13K dead, 94 k "recovered".

An interesting line is the incidence line on the far right, second from the right edge.... cases per M population. The worst is Iceland, with most of the European countries up there as well, and China only has 56/M reported, with the usual caveat "if you can believe the Chinese", which no one objects to as a racist slur because it is referring not to race but to the managed press, which is also true of ours because the same mentality has infected our own "free" press. I hear along "Conservative" talk shows continued references of the fearmonger class that we may not be getting the truth, and by God as my witness, its the Preppers and extreme skeptic right that are now doing the worst fearmongering.

Honestly, which is really the worst, a managerial Establishment trying to calm the Public, or their antithetical rabid critics who really have practically no ethics or facts or intelligence. OK, so bros, just so you know where I'm coming from, back to the Science.

What I see in the Worldometer stats is practically no exponential growth in the stats, anywhere. And no real serious outbreaks coming from the Tropics. We must thank the travel restrictions first of all for an apparent leveling of the curve in the areas which were not early centers of the outbreak.

And for @Wes Mantooth down under, where plausibly the viral season is just getting started, it has not gotten serious and appears to be stopping already.
 
Here is one of the most authoritative reports, done in Feb.,

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/...-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

What I see here is that nearing the first day of March, the total cases known/reported was in the 80k area. Todays stats would add up to about 400k. The incubation time frame is stated here to be about 5d (median) or 2-10d for almost all cases. I'm trying to infer an effective infective carrier efficiency.... if that stat is above 1 we will have increasing incidence over time, if it is above 2 is will take on a sort of exponential growth pattern. 3 would be wildly exponential. The 80k going to 400 k in four (median) incubation time frames would indicate a 1.5 stat for our spread rate, and would not yet reflect the internal US travel restriction effects, just measure in place in early March. 1.5 supports my statement above that we are not seeing "exponential" spread now.

We are not yet at a stage where the new "infectives" could be arguably declining in numbers.
 
My next task is to estimate the unknown/unknowing infectives or "spreaders" walking around on the streets exposing others and the numbers of people they are infecting. Since this population includes p3eople who are undiagnosed, and not appearing in our statistics, it must be deduced somehow.

rationally, we have two stats here we must deduce, for lack of actual counts or measurements. The number of unknown infectives, and their incidence of contact/infective events, their "efficiency" so to speak.

A few days ago I made the rather wild guess that we have maybe 2M unknown/unknowing infectives out and about world-wide. I think that is seriously over-estimated, maybe even "fearmonger" class inaccuracy/exaggeration. I want to do some better work here, in the next few posts.
 
A lockdown/shutdown/social distancing/stay-at-home/travel ban scenario will rationally be expected to stop a lot of "infectives" cold, and reduce dramatically the "efficiency" of spreaders still out and about as well. A very good shutdown, on a virus with a 5d incubation, can be expected to show it's effectiveness within 10d. And if the active spreading capacity lasts 30d---an unlikely long time--- a general shutdown of longer than 30d would be totally unjustified. If that infective time is 14 d, a shutdown of 21d would be unjustified. Over and done.
 
Here's a pretty good report directly relevant to the questions raised above:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses

These researchers found that for infected persons, a two-week quarantine after diagnosis is likely all that is needed, that infective spread after two weeks is unlikely.

Combine that with a 5d (2-10) incubation period, and you can expect a 21d travel ban/stay-at-home policy to virtually end the outbreak.
 
Other factors, however, must be considered. If the spread has vectors such as birds or rats, we really have a totally different public health problem.....Gotta end sanctuary cities and homeless camps.

Gotta do serious extermination programs in LA and SF to kill the rats..... that sort of thing.

Here's a report that states rats can be carriers..... supporting the China government ban on animal foods people are using....

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/11/rat-farmers-hit-by-covid-19-crisis

There are some studies on contact spread via animals that do not support the fear that animals will be a primary infective vector.

I guess the lesson here would be "keep your social distance from pigs, etc" or "don't eat raw rats". lol
 
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I would have expected our stats to be topping out about now, but apparently there are some real hot spots.

NYC..... garment industry..... convention....huge Italy traffic, with a Wuhan connections. Lots of Chinese workers imported to Italy by Chinese businessmen who bought out Italian garment businesses.... doing the manufacturing in Italy with cheap Chinese labor, "progressive slaves to globalist fascist-run cartels". Great "Made in Italy" label.

Refusal by CDC and government officials to encourage effective use of known prophylactic/curative agent chloroquine.

Yah, Trump has blathered hopefully about it, and Hannity has had some doctors on dong anecdotal information. NYC is perhaps the world's worst place to be right now. And that's about 20M US residents. With a government/health care establishment politically-correct, scientifically scrupulous, and medically pious, willing to just pile up the bodies in body bags...… rather than use medicine that works.

Nevada's governor has banned its use.

Gawd I hate socialists.
 
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So across about 15 days of social distancing/travel restrictions/economic shutdown, we have continued to exponentially (2.5 X) our case reports every 3 days. Only the last three days has declined exponential of just 2.. When that exponential becomes 1 we may be at the max.

However, the testing has accelerated, and may be the cause of the increase in reports.

Damn the CDC and the Worldometer sites all to happy to run up the toll without disclosing the number of tests or evaluations the positives are coming from. This is deliberate panic-provoking by the official sources.

As someone who has created hundreds of ELISA tests for specific antigens and antibodies, none of which took me more than about two days tops, It is absolutely inexcusable that our CDC did not have the materials on hand to produce muillions of the 45-min test strips within a few days, and out to doctors all over the country within about 10 d.

This is a deliberate political use of this crisis being run out to push socialism.

There is no excuse for this. Deliberate and deadly misuse of public office and government authority.

If we had listened to the information provided by good and decent and responsible front-line doctors in Wuhan, who put their careers and personal health on the line, and their lives in acceptable Chinese society all on the line to do so, we could have absolutely shut this down in early February.

So people, take care of yourselves. Nobody else will do that for you.

CoViD-19 has a very high rate of spread, a high "binding coefficient" but a fairly moderate replication rate. Soap is actually the best disinfectant. Hard to find bleach or uv lights already.

I was estimating before that as many as 95% of cases are mild, and that we already had maybe 2M positives in our 380M population. If that were true, we would have peaked already. Current estimates are running 80% "mild", with
maybe less than half of those on the books, and less than a million now actually experiencing their CoViD-19.
 
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babe said:
I would have expected our stats to be topping out about now, but apparently there are some real hot spots.

NYC..... garment industry..... convention....huge Italy traffic, with a Wuhan connections. Lots of Chinese workers imported to Italy by Chinese businessmen who bought out Italian garment businesses.... doing the manufacturing in Italy with cheap Chinese labor, "progressive slaves to globalist fascist-run cartels". Great "Made in Italy" label.

Refusal by CDC and government officials to encourage effective use of known prophylactic/curative agent chloroquine.

Yah, Trump has blathered hopefully about it, and Hannity has had some doctors on dong anecdotal information. NYC is perhaps the world's worst place to be right now. And that's about 20M US residents. With a government/health care establishment politically-correct, scientifically scrupulous, and medically pious, willing to just pile up the bodies in body bags...… rather than use medicine that works.

Nevada's governor has banned its use.

Gawd I hate socialists.
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My understanding of the Nevada governor’s ban was a ban for using it outpatient. Now assuming this is beneficial, this may be reasonable as now you have a much higher demand for it and with limited resources you need to preserve this for use in sicker cases, this the hospital. With the majority of people not needing hospitalization, it makes sense to divert that if there’s any acute shortage.
 
In a chronic illness board that I participate in, people who have been using chloroquine to treat lupus, rheumatoid arthritis and other illnesses are now not able to get it because of doctors hoarding it. A pharmacy actually thanked one person for her "sacrifice" (as if she had a choice).

Sent from my moto z3 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
JazzGal said:
In a chronic illness board that I participate in, people who have been using chloroquine to treat lupus, rheumatoid arthritis and other illnesses are now not able to get it because of doctors hoarding it. A pharmacy actually thanked one person for her "sacrifice" (as if she had a choice).

Sent from my moto z3 using JazzFanz mobile app
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I keep hearing this idea of physicians hoarding it but I’m uncertain what the basis of it is. I’m in a few different groups with many thousands of members and haven’t heard anyone actually doing it, but of course people probably wouldn’t admit to it. I’ve heard of a lot of people prescribing it, though, but I’d be very curious on the origin of this rumor.
 
So I found some data reported on the actual testing and incidence of CoViD-19 in a lot of countries...

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

I have heard that South Korea, using methods similar to China's, ran out the testing as first priority, literally going house to house with the test materials, with a strategy to emphasis detecting the virus in the total population, rather than waiting until people turn up, worried or sick, asking for tests. In South Korea, 95% of the tests showed negative, and apparently they found most of the carriers already because they focus first on neighborhoods or social groups were cases were showing up. And they did it quick, before very many people got it.

So far, in the US, about 85% of the tests are showing negative..... showing also that we are deeper into the course than South Korea was. When the disease is fully expended, we'll have healthy survivors who will show antibodies present via ELISA tests, but no virus present per the PCR test.

Most of our tests being done are PCR tests. I think South Korea and China used ELISA tests for the antigen. The best way to detect people who need care and quarantine. Rather than do mass public health crude methods like we are using, we should by now have done the ELISA antigen test on every American. You can, if you have the test strips, literally test kids or workers entering a school of workplace.

Absolutely inexcusable we are not already doing this.

But still, the stat here is encouraging. With only 80% or so showing positive on a direct viral test at this stage, after almost two weeks of shutdown, it is hard to argue that 60% will get it before the transmission rate goes to zero. That would be 200M, maybe 3M deaths we don't start using our known effective medicines and get some vaccines out.

All bets are off for NYC though. Even if they did vote for their government, they didn't deserve to be subjected to all that stupidity.
 
JazzGal said:
https://khn.org/news/why-hoarding-of-hydroxychloroquine-needs-to-stop/

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Thank you for this link.

I have heard of Israel sending us two lots of the pharmaceutical product made in their country by their major producer....6 Million doses, and then 4M more, and of Trump sending some to NYC. I have also heard of other producers ramping up to produce it.

I think it took about six seconds for all our stores and warehouses to go bare, and I believe a lot of people are using whatever they can. I have heard of ICU doctors using all they can get for CoViD-19 patients.

People in ARDS probably can't be efficiently helped at that stage. It's best use is before it gets that bad....

Fine to be all hoity-toity about established methods of testing and all that, but I'm not one to think that outrates saving human lives right now.
 
infection said:
I keep hearing this idea of physicians hoarding it but I’m uncertain what the basis of it is. I’m in a few different groups with many thousands of members and haven’t heard anyone actually doing it, but of course people probably wouldn’t admit to it. I’ve heard of a lot of people prescribing it, though, but I’d be very curious on the origin of this rumor.
Click to expand...

If I had a stash, mum would be the word unless I had someone in front of me it could help.
 
I think I wobbled on that "rational" part of this thread..... lol

I'll be back in a few days with some time and some information that does measure up.
 
infection said:
My understanding of the Nevada governor’s ban was a ban for using it outpatient. Now assuming this is beneficial, this may be reasonable as now you have a much higher demand for it and with limited resources you need to preserve this for use in sicker cases, this the hospital. With the majority of people not needing hospitalization, it makes sense to divert that if there’s any acute shortage.
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This is standard, educated, professional thinking. Establishment.

Of course it is pretty good thinking, and something I don't actually care to argue with. It would amend my criticism of the governor if he were thinking like that.

I think in political wonk thinking, the idea of letting little people get their hands on medicine and treat themselves is just horrid. I think at that level, the term "off-label" is used, to demean the product as possibly fake or unguaranteed in purity or something.

But, yah, I'm a critic of the AMA and the Big Pharma folks too in most discussions, except I do want the stuff they do and make, and I want the information it takes to use it right. I might just be a teeny bit squeamish about folks making up their own shingles and hanging them out on their front porch and passing themselves as a "Dr. Google Franchise/Retailer, though.

There is pretty much a black market for stuff on the webz, where you can buy almost any medicine you'd ever need to treat your fish tank or whatever. I'd have to do some paperwork in my business to get stuff for research and show how I used it. But I could also make a batch of almost anything...… except I found out years ago chemicals don't really like me, so I'm happy to just buy it from someone with a bigger operation and some lawyers, enough lawyers to demonstrate they care not to mess up too much. One or two sorta hungry lawyers hanging around trying to tell them to be careful.....

News was that somebody got some fishtank disinfectant with a name like chloroquine on the label, and killed themselves with it.

I'd have to be a really huge Darwinian to think that's OK as a "The Way Things Are" sort of established survival test society.
 
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