Smartphones to replace computers soon

[SaltyDawg]

You keep throwing "most people" around. How does that explain that millions upon millions of PC based games are sold each year and that many games, especially very complex games, are still developed for the PC before other systems.

You keep telling me that pc's are still selling. I will keep telling you that the smartphone market is growing much faster than the pc market. Laptop sales were lower than expected over the last 3 months, smartphone sales were much higher than expected over that same timeframe. For every game that is made for a pc, there are probably 100 made for a smartphone.

So there will still probably be hardcore gamers using a custom built pc. But the average gamer, the people who mostly play games on an xbox, playstation, wii, psp, ds, etc, will be just fine gaming on a smartphone.

Again, Windows Phones have Xbox Live right now. It's pretty new (only a couple months old) but it is there and growing in popularity every day. Sony is releasing a playstation phone (running on Android).

The market is obviously headed this way and if you can't see it now, you will soon.

 

[SaltyDawg]

Did you sign up for your free 25 gb? Did you then pay to expand that out or is 25 gb enough for you? In your "all phones are PC's utopia" you keep skirting around cost. "Oh yeah the phone will be basically free, $300 bucks max." does not jive with "The phone will completely replace all PCs and laptops." Where there is increased demand there is increased price. The same will apply to the phone as well as the storage medium. You think these storage companies exist out of the goodness of their hearts? Really?

You do realize the other options you gave are stand-alone items right? Flies in the face of your "nothing ever needed ever again thanks to cloud everything" platform. Fact is cloud memory will cost you in the end.

If you really think 1 TB is such a gigantic number you really have no clue what the average computer user has on their computer. I upgraded my dad's memory just from photos video and music. He is about as computer savvy as any other 74 year old. We upgraded him to 1 Tb so we didn't need to worry about it for a while. He started scanning his old slides and such and now we might need to upgrade again.

Your definition of "normal user" is specious. What about the millions who have a desktop and not a laptop at all. You forgot to add something to your definition. I fixed it above.

And you avoided the very crux of my post: I need multiple computers in my home and will not buy multiple phones that can be much more easily lost/damaged/stolen than a home PC can, especially with kids, also that I have to pay monthly fees for each one separately. Much cheaper monthly to pay for the phones I use as phones.

It is still not as simple as you make it out to be.

1: Yes, of course I have my free 25 GB. I have several hotmail accounts actually, each one includes that free 25GB.

2: No, 25 GB is not enough for me. I have several network drives on my home network that I can access remotely.

3: Of course I realize those were stand alone items. that was my point- you don't need a laptop just because you think you have to have a minimum of 1 TB on your portable computer.

4: I don't think 1 TB is gigantic. I talk to people all day, every day, that have far more than that (and I have way more than that, but I am not a typical user). But I do think it's ridiculous to think you have to carry 1 TB with you at all times. And I listed a few alternatives to carrying 1 TB around with you at all times. There are other alternatives too, but the ones I listed are the cheapest/easiest.

5: The millions of people who have a desktop and no laptop are no different. The hd dock for the Atrix, for example, costs $60. It connects to a desktop keyboard, mouse, and monitor (and/or a tv). So they could use it too. And I'm not saying the Atrix is going to make computers obsolete, I'm saying it's the first of many phones that will flood the market in the next few years that are designed to replace your computer. And in 4 years, most people will have those phones and will use them instead of their computers (and will stop buying computers).

6: So you don't want to get your kids a phone. That's fine. Most new tv's will be running some sort of OS within the next few years and you will be able to do all the stuff your little kids do on a computer today. You can buy a Google TV box right now but they haven't released the Market (app store) for it yet. Plus the boxes are pretty new so they are still expensive. Wait til they're $20 or so in a few years and have thousands of apps in the market.

7: You think technology gets more expensive as more people buy it? LOL, hillarious. Just look at the price of smartphones. I paid $650 for a Hitachi G1000 back in 2003. In March (and maybe even February) you will be able to get a Motorola Atrix for $150. And don't get me started on when a 50 inch plasma cost 20 grand. You're nuts if you think technology gets more expensive with demand. As more people want it, more people make it. Competition generates lower prices. Not to mention the whole "buying in bulk" resulting in cheaper prices.

I know that supply/demand influences prices. But in the tech fields there are way too many people trying to make what people want. So the more people want it, the more companies are trying to make it.

 

[Gameface]

I haven't owned a PC I didn't build myself since somewhere around '93. I typically build a new PC when I want to play a game that my old PC cannot be reasonably upgraded to run. I have never owned an Xbox or Playstation, mostly because the games I play do not translate well to consoles, imho.

But I write things on occasion, (RIP WordPerfect) and I cannot imagine writing anything of any length on a phone or tablet. That's not even to mention editing a large document, or doing any kind of layout work.

Will the PC market shrink and the smartphone market grow? Yeah, I think so. But just as the "paperless" office has never come to pass I think the "PC-less" office will also be hard to come by.

 

[SaltyDawg]

I haven't owned a PC I didn't build myself since somewhere around '93. I typically build a new PC when I want to play a game that my old PC cannot be reasonably upgraded to run. I have never owned an Xbox or Playstation, mostly because the games I play do not translate well to consoles, imho.

But I write things on occasion, (RIP WordPerfect) and I cannot imagine writing anything of any length on a phone or tablet. That's not even to mention editing a large document, or doing any kind of layout work.

Will the PC market shrink and the smartphone market grow? Yeah, I think so. But just as the "paperless" office has never come to pass I think the "PC-less" office will also be hard to come by.

The games are an issue if you only play games that an Xbox can't run. But as for docs and things like that, the smartphone in the first post connects to a dock that has a full pc keyboard, monitor, and mouse. It also has a laptop dock that gives it a laptop keyboard, monitor, and touch pad. It is only the first. They will all do that in the near future.

I know that we will not have a totally PC less office. There will probably always be a server. But instead of everyone in the office having a desktop, and a lot of them also having a laptop, everyone will have a smartphone instead, and they will all share the same computer (server).

 

[Gameface]

The games are an issue if you only play games that an Xbox can't run. But as for docs and things like that, the smartphone in the first post connects to a dock that has a full pc keyboard, monitor, and mouse. It also has a laptop dock that gives it a laptop keyboard, monitor, and touch pad. It is only the first. They will all do that in the near future.

I don't know that we will have a totally PC less office. There will probably always be a server. But instead of everyone in the office having a desktop, and a lot of them also having a laptop, everyone will have a smartphone instead, and they will all share the same computer (server).

In a big way I hope you're right. If you are then I can probably retire from the place I'm working now. We make flash memory, which is doing great right now in large part because of the smartphone and tablet market.

 

[LogGrad98]

1: Yes, of course I have my free 25 GB. I have several hotmail accounts actually, each one includes that free 25GB.

2: No, 25 GB is not enough for me. I have several network drives on my home network that I can access remotely.

3: Of course I realize those were stand alone items. that was my point- you don't need a laptop just because you think you have to have a minimum of 1 TB on your portable computer.

4: I don't think 1 TB is gigantic. I talk to people all day, every day, that have far more than that (and I have way more than that, but I am not a typical user). But I do think it's ridiculous to think you have to carry 1 TB with you at all times. And I listed a few alternatives to carrying 1 TB around with you at all times. There are other alternatives too, but the ones I listed are the cheapest/easiest.

5: The millions of people who have a desktop and no laptop are no different. The hd dock for the Atrix, for example, costs $60. It connects to a desktop keyboard, mouse, and monitor (and/or a tv). So they could use it too. And I'm not saying the Atrix is going to make computers obsolete, I'm saying it's the first of many phones that will flood the market in the next few years that are designed to replace your computer. And in 4 years, most people will have those phones and will use them instead of their computers (and will stop buying computers).

6: So you don't want to get your kids a phone. That's fine. Most new tv's will be running some sort of OS within the next few years and you will be able to do all the stuff your little kids do on a computer today. You can buy a Google TV box right now but they haven't released the Market (app store) for it yet. Plus the boxes are pretty new so they are still expensive. Wait til they're $20 or so in a few years and have thousands of apps in the market.

7: You think technology gets more expensive as more people buy it? LOL, hillarious. Just look at the price of smartphones. I paid $650 for a Hitachi G1000 back in 2003. In March (and maybe even February) you will be able to get a Motorola Atrix for $150. And don't get me started on when a 50 inch plasma cost 20 grand. You're nuts if you think technology gets more expensive with demand. As more people want it, more people make it. Competition generates lower prices. Not to mention the whole "buying in bulk" resulting in cheaper prices.

I know that supply/demand influences prices. But in the tech fields there are way too many people trying to make what people want. So the more people want it, the more companies are trying to make it.

Why do you have a home network?

You really don't know anyone that carries close to 1 TB on a laptop or other device? Really. And you talk to people about this all day every day.

I did a quick survey around the office before I came home today and found that 500 gb up to 1 TB is about the norm that most of them have on their laptop or PC. Most of them wanted to be able to carry that much around with them on their iPod or iPad or other devices. We are not a high-tech company, I work in distribution. This desire for storage size is only going to go up. If not that would be serious paradigm breaking since the cost of storage and storage limitations have been the single strongest limiting factor on computer and software development. You still have not addressed the monthly fees for cloud storage beyond the anemic 25gb other than to say you would use your home network. For most people if they have to set up that kind of home network, they would buy a pc.

Has your cell phone bill gone up or down over the past 5 years? Did it go up with added data plans or down?

Hardware prices go down with time, services typically do not. Also you forget the product life-cycle. In the early part of a products life-cycle you typically find fewer suppliers and higher prices. The prices drop off as more suppliers enter the market place and as the technology improves and due to economies of scale. At product maturity you usually get the lowest prices and most competitors that the market can bear. You are addressing this as if we will enter this new product at the maturity phase of its life-cycle. You are also ignoring barriers to entry into the marketplace, which are high for tech products typically which limits how many players there are in the market over time. The cost of newer phones, even with a new contract, have been higher year over year for the past 5 years. Look at the Motorola Razr which was top-seller in what 2005? I got mine with a new contract for $99.99 and thought it was pretty high at the time. It has not gotten better. Check this out:

While both AT&T and Verizon sell the iPhone 4 for $199 or $299 depending on storage capacity, both cellular providers sell them for different off-contract prices. This important difference can be seen on the bottom of Apple’s iPhone purchase page and on Verizon’s frequently asked questions about the iPhone 4 page. AT&T allows customers to purchase the 16 GB iPhone 4 for $599 sans the contract and charges $699 for the contract-free 32 GB model. On the other hand, Verizon charges $649 and $749 for the two models, respectively.

Why would they sell such a great tech product at $100 more than the best tech phone from 5 years ago? That is 100% inflation. If they now have a phone that so completely eclipses the iPhone and HTCs and Blackberrys you really think they will sell for LESS than those other phones?

See the development costs of these products have to be recouped. Development costs go up so does the price for the phone. Wonder why most new high-tech phones are about this same price? The extra cost is passed on to you from the cell company in the form of "fees" and charges for premium services. Look at your bill for some nebulous charge like "service charge" or "standard fees" and you will see it is around 15%. These fees were either non-existant a few years ago or closer to 5%. Believe me this new smart phone will cost you. Not all costs have a perfect little trail to a receipt.

You don't have kids do you, or kids old enough to use technology? If you did you wouldn't so lightly skim over the impact to the entire family. I have the internet on my TV now, admittedly limited, but no one likes to use it. It is no fun typing on your lap for one thing. For another, the TV gets used to, imagine this, watch tv. My kids show a strong preference for using the computers in the computer room with desks.

I cannot imagine anyone spending much more than an hour or so seriously computing in any way shape or form on your tv, unless of course you put a desk in there. Then the tv will probably be out of position for best viewing, so it would make sense to get a smaller tv and put it on the desk. At this point the interface box would need to be on the desk too. Also you would probably want a place to play DVDs or burn DVDs and CDs and such. You could add that in as well, and it would be nice to have it all in the same package as the receiver box. Then you would have a nice PC replacement in the form of a smaller tv on a desk with a keyboard and mouse and an interface to use DVDs or play games or something similar and to burn discs.

Wow does that ever sound familiar.

 

[SaltyDawg]

Why do you have a home network?

You really don't know anyone that carries close to 1 TB on a laptop or other device? Really. And you talk to people about this all day every day.

I did a quick survey around the office before I came home today and found that 500 gb up to 1 TB is about the norm that most of them have on their laptop or PC. Most of them wanted to be able to carry that much around with them on their iPod or iPad or other devices. We are not a high-tech company, I work in distribution. This desire for storage size is only going to go up. If not that would be serious paradigm breaking since the cost of storage and storage limitations have been the single strongest limiting factor on computer and software development. You still have not addressed the monthly fees for cloud storage beyond the anemic 25gb other than to say you would use your home network. For most people if they have to set up that kind of home network, they would buy a pc.

Has your cell phone bill gone up or down over the past 5 years? Did it go up with added data plans or down?

Hardware prices go down with time, services typically do not. Also you forget the product life-cycle. In the early part of a products life-cycle you typically find fewer suppliers and higher prices. The prices drop off as more suppliers enter the market place and as the technology improves and due to economies of scale. At product maturity you usually get the lowest prices and most competitors that the market can bear. You are addressing this as if we will enter this new product at the maturity phase of its life-cycle. You are also ignoring barriers to entry into the marketplace, which are high for tech products typically which limits how many players there are in the market over time. The cost of newer phones, even with a new contract, have been higher year over year for the past 5 years. Look at the Motorola Razr which was top-seller in what 2005? I got mine with a new contract for $99.99 and thought it was pretty high at the time. It has not gotten better. Check this out:



Why would they sell such a great tech product at $100 more than the best tech phone from 5 years ago? That is 100% inflation. If they now have a phone that so completely eclipses the iPhone and HTCs and Blackberrys you really think they will sell for LESS than those other phones?

See the development costs of these products have to be recouped. Development costs go up so does the price for the phone. Wonder why most new high-tech phones are about this same price? The extra cost is passed on to you from the cell company in the form of "fees" and charges for premium services. Look at your bill for some nebulous charge like "service charge" or "standard fees" and you will see it is around 15%. These fees were either non-existant a few years ago or closer to 5%. Believe me this new smart phone will cost you. Not all costs have a perfect little trail to a receipt.

You don't have kids do you, or kids old enough to use technology? If you did you wouldn't so lightly skim over the impact to the entire family. I have the internet on my TV now, admittedly limited, but no one likes to use it. It is no fun typing on your lap for one thing. For another, the TV gets used to, imagine this, watch tv. My kids show a strong preference for using the computers in the computer room with desks.

I cannot imagine anyone spending much more than an hour or so seriously computing in any way shape or form on your tv, unless of course you put a desk in there. Then the tv will probably be out of position for best viewing, so it would make sense to get a smaller tv and put it on the desk. At this point the interface box would need to be on the desk too. Also you would probably want a place to play DVDs or burn DVDs and CDs and such. You could add that in as well, and it would be nice to have it all in the same package as the receiver box. Then you would have a nice PC replacement in the form of a smaller tv on a desk with a keyboard and mouse and an interface to use DVDs or play games or something similar and to burn discs.

Wow does that ever sound familiar.

1: I know plenty of people that have well over 1 TB of storage. I know very few people (if anyone at all, actually) that feels they have to carry that much storage space with them. But then again, I do work in a high tech environment, and everyone I work with is already well aware that there are much better options. There is an app that lets you play music on your phone that you are streaming from your house. And setting up a network storage at home consists of buying one of those drives (or enclosures) that I linked to earlier, and connecting it to your home WiFi (or ethernet). It's not complicated. If you can watch Netflix on your tv, you can set up a network storage.

2: On a per person basis, my mobile phone plan is considerably cheaper today than it was 5 years ago. But I have my kids on my family plan now, and I didn't have that 5 years ago. So my overall plan is more today than it was 5 years ago, but per person it is actually cheaper. I had a data plan 5 years ago, so having a data plan is nothing new to me. I remember when "a penny per second" was the cheapest cell phone plan around though, and it is certainly a lot cheaper now.

3: Services absolutely go down over time. I have unlimited 3G and 4G data, streaming tv, unlimited minutes to any cellphone, unlimited nights and weekends starting at 7:00, free navigation, and more minutes than I could ever use to landlines- and I am paying less per person now than I was 5 years ago before anyone had 3G. Like I said, I remember when "a penny a second" (no free nights and weekends, mobile to mobile, etc) was dirt cheap for a cell phone plan.

4: If you think the RAZR was the best tech phone 5 years ago, you're crazy. The RAZR was a basic flip phone. They give phones like that away for free nowadays when you sign a contract. FYI, I spent over $600 for this phone back in 2004:
https://pdadb.net/index.php?m=specs&id=703&c=sprint_ppc-6600_htc_harrier
I got this phone for like $450 or $500 on contract about 5 years ago (first 3G phone):
https://pdadb.net/index.php?m=specs&id=409&c=sprint_ppc-6700_htc_apache
The RAZR was not even close to the best tech phone. Comparing it with the price of an iPhone is not even close to a fair comparison.

5: You want to know why smartphones are so cheap these days when you buy them on contract? Because they make such a killing on the apps, music, and everything else you buy. The Evo, which is technologically superior to the iPhone 4 that you listed, was $450 full retail (no contract) directly from Sprint on the day it launched.That is a lot cheaper than the $650 I used to drop (on contract prices!) for smartphones. The first iPhone was like $500 on contract 3 years ago. The prices have gone down, and it isn't because they are jacking up service costs. It's because they (Apple, Google, MS, etc) are making money off the OS, apps, ads, music downloads, etc, and they are giving the carriers a piece of that pie.

6: Trust me, I am well aware of the costs of cellphones for a family. Yes I have kids, and they have smartphones too. And they have had smartphones for several years now. They started out managing their own minutes on prepaid, and after a couple years of that I went ahead and put them on my family plan. I know the cost and I think it's worth it. And despite what you think, it's not any more expensive than it was 5 years ago. You get a whole lot more today than you got back then, and the cost is less. It's probably more expensive if you didn't have a smartphone with a data plan back then. But for people like me, who did have a smartphone and a data plan back then, it includes way more than we had back then and the cost is lower today.

7: Yeah, internet on tv is clunky right now because it's brand new, and there isn't anything for out yet. You can bet in a couple years all the kinks will have long been worked out. There will be all the same apps you can get on a smartphone. And there will be all kinds of keyboards, mouse, webcams, and every other accessory you can imagine. Right now is the ground floor. It's no surprise your kids prefer an actual computer. An actual computer is a lot better right now. But that won't be the case forever.

8: You're way, way off on the direction google tv (or any computerized tv) is heading. The interface box will be right next to the tv, or even built in (they are already like this). The keyboard and mouse and all that will be wireless (they already are) and you can use them wherever you want. The place you burn DVD's and such will be your Blu Ray player. And that is if you even care about burning disks anymore with the industry headed towards flash memory and cloud storage.

I know you are going out of your way to make an argument here, but look at it like this..
You just bought a phone for $150. For another $150 it can double as your laptop computer. Are you going to buy it? (and throw out your skepticism that it can replace your laptop, because it absolutely will be able to, so for the sake of argument lets say you agree at the time you buy it that it can replace your laptop). If you thought it could replace your laptop, would you buy it? Of course you would. And you may not think it will replace your laptop right now, but I guarantee you will change your tune before 4 years is up.

 

[LogGrad98]

I could go at each of those point for point, for example I used the Razr because it was the most popular phone at the time, like the iPhone is today. Also the costs for a cell account have been shown to have gone up drastically for the average amercain cell user over the past 5 years. (5 years ago my cell phone cost me $35 per month, now over $160). Not to mention the fact that, sure internet TV may take off, but it does not change the fact that it is still no fun to type on your lap and I get fights at my house if the TV is not available to watch TV. And if your kids all have phones like yours then I wish I made the money you do. That is by no means a standard cost for the typical family. You also acknowledged the very thing that makes your opinion an inherently biased one: you work in high-tech. So you expect everyone to view it the way you do. You are anything but the typical user. I do not know anyone who has bought smartphones for every single member of the family. You are in a unique group and hardly qualify as "typical". As far as skepticism this is not the first time that something was touted as the greatest things since pre-wrapped american cheese, and it won't be the last. Skepticism exists where nothing has been proven. You claiming it can does not equate to it will.

That said, I am actually being somewhat trollish because you are so much fun to get going. I absolutely think smartphone technology (although that moniker won't stick for long imho) is the wave of the future. I own an Evo and yes I do know that you can stop the tapatalk commercial if you want to, or change the sig or whatever. =) It cannot be denied what is being packed into those things. There is no doubt in my mind that in time they will be capable of replacing computers the way we know them now, but more likely will be a shift in how computers are used and where they are used. I think we will see ubiquitousness of computers before everything-in-one paradigms. As in, computers in cars do more, and vending machines, and in subways and in your desk at work and in the desk at school, etc. and simply become pervasive.

The thing that I get a real kick out of is the 4 year time frame. If you seriously believe we are on the verge of a renaissance of the likes we have never seen before in all of technology to the point where in 4 short years a product that has been part of the world consciousness for over 30 years, with sales well into the double digit millions, representing a well over $100 billion industry world-wide, and projected double digit percentage growth year over year for the next 10 years, will suddenly be a dinosaur and simply disappear from households around the world, then I say you are nuts. Even the cotton gin and the steam engine did not take over that fast and they were far more than a step change, which realistically is all this is right now.

I think computer manufacturers are not that naive. I do not think Dell will turn into nothing but a cell phone company, nor do I believe they will simply be gone in 4 years - billion dollar company down the tubes in 4 years? Seriously doubt it. I think they will figure out how to compete by giving Americans a choice, something Americans (and others around the world) have shown throughout the brief history of our country that they truly want. A choice. There are so many factions of computer users that you cannot simply group them into "average user" groups that easily. There is no doubt that things are a'changing, but this change is not happening in a vaccuum. As you type that computers will disappear within 4 years there are hundreds of software companies writing software for those computers 4 years from now that should be gone. Untold thousands of jobs hang on the PC being a viable product for years to come. It is beyond bold to predict that PCs will only be seen in museums in as little as 4 years. Bold to the point of insanity. And it betrays a serious lack of knowledge of market forces and ingenuity, as well as market segmentation.

The reason my parents got a computer is not because we had one or to keep up with the Jones's or whatever. It is because my mom started using one at work. I changed from WordPerfect very unwillingly because I used Word at work. We changed from CorelDRAW to Illustrator because my kids use it at school. There is a point of familiarity that the "average computer user" has shown an affinity for. Those kinds of forces at work in the market will not simply go away, and other manufacturers will play off those forces as well.

If you are really that convinced that in 4 years no PCs will be available on the shelves of WalMarts and Best Buys everywhere, let's put some money on it. And how convinced are you? Want to give some odds, say 10 to 1. I bet $50 bucks that computers will still be just as viable and used as they are today, you bet $500 that computers will be gone from the american psyche completely and totally, with everyone running around with smartphones and docking stations. Deal?

 

[SaltyDawg]

I could go at each of those point for point, for example I used the Razr because it was the most popular phone at the time, like the iPhone is today. Also the costs for a cell account have been shown to have gone up drastically for the average amercain cell user over the past 5 years. (5 years ago my cell phone cost me $35 per month, now over $160). Not to mention the fact that, sure internet TV may take off, but it does not change the fact that it is still no fun to type on your lap and I get fights at my house if the TV is not available to watch TV. And if your kids all have phones like yours then I wish I made the money you do. That is by no means a standard cost for the typical family. You also acknowledged the very thing that makes your opinion an inherently biased one: you work in high-tech. So you expect everyone to view it the way you do. You are anything but the typical user. I do not know anyone who has bought smartphones for every single member of the family. You are in a unique group and hardly qualify as "typical". As far as skepticism this is not the first time that something was touted as the greatest things since pre-wrapped american cheese, and it won't be the last. Skepticism exists where nothing has been proven. You claiming it can does not equate to it will.

That said, I am actually being somewhat trollish because you are so much fun to get going. I absolutely think smartphone technology (although that moniker won't stick for long imho) is the wave of the future. I own an Evo and yes I do know that you can stop the tapatalk commercial if you want to, or change the sig or whatever. =) It cannot be denied what is being packed into those things. There is no doubt in my mind that in time they will be capable of replacing computers the way we know them now, but more likely will be a shift in how computers are used and where they are used. I think we will see ubiquitousness of computers before everything-in-one paradigms. As in, computers in cars do more, and vending machines, and in subways and in your desk at work and in the desk at school, etc. and simply become pervasive.

The thing that I get a real kick out of is the 4 year time frame. If you seriously believe we are on the verge of a renaissance of the likes we have never seen before in all of technology to the point where in 4 short years a product that has been part of the world consciousness for over 30 years, with sales well into the double digit millions, representing a well over $100 billion industry world-wide, and projected double digit percentage growth year over year for the next 10 years, will suddenly be a dinosaur and simply disappear from households around the world, then I say you are nuts. Even the cotton gin and the steam engine did not take over that fast and they were far more than a step change, which realistically is all this is right now.

I think computer manufacturers are not that naive. I do not think Dell will turn into nothing but a cell phone company, nor do I believe they will simply be gone in 4 years - billion dollar company down the tubes in 4 years? Seriously doubt it. I think they will figure out how to compete by giving Americans a choice, something Americans (and others around the world) have shown throughout the brief history of our country that they truly want. A choice. There are so many factions of computer users that you cannot simply group them into "average user" groups that easily. There is no doubt that things are a'changing, but this change is not happening in a vaccuum. As you type that computers will disappear within 4 years there are hundreds of software companies writing software for those computers 4 years from now that should be gone. Untold thousands of jobs hang on the PC being a viable product for years to come. It is beyond bold to predict that PCs will only be seen in museums in as little as 4 years. Bold to the point of insanity. And it betrays a serious lack of knowledge of market forces and ingenuity, as well as market segmentation.

The reason my parents got a computer is not because we had one or to keep up with the Jones's or whatever. It is because my mom started using one at work. I changed from WordPerfect very unwillingly because I used Word at work. We changed from CorelDRAW to Illustrator because my kids use it at school. There is a point of familiarity that the "average computer user" has shown an affinity for. Those kinds of forces at work in the market will not simply go away, and other manufacturers will play off those forces as well.

If you are really that convinced that in 4 years no PCs will be available on the shelves of WalMarts and Best Buys everywhere, let's put some money on it. And how convinced are you? Want to give some odds, say 10 to 1. I bet $50 bucks that computers will still be just as viable and used as they are today, you bet $500 that computers will be gone from the american psyche completely and totally, with everyone running around with smartphones and docking stations. Deal?

1: So you used a RAZR simply because it was the most popular phone? You mean you didn't use it based on the actual phone, but based on everyone else using it? And you're here debating this subject with someone that was a smartphone expect long before the RAZR?

2: I work in high tech, yes. And over the years of me working in high tech, one thing I've learned is the general public catches up, but high tech keeps moving. 5 years ago there was no iPhone. People thought I was crazy carrying around a huge brick for a phone. Now everyone has a smartphone. I bet 5 years ago you never envisioned yourself paying hundreds of dollars for a huge brick of a phone, and then paying $160 per month to use it. I saw it coming. Just like i told everyone when they asked why I had a huge brick phone and the high cell phone bill- you will too someday. And BTW, your mobile plan may cost you more today than it did back then (you're getting ripped off if you're paying $160 per month for a single Evo) but people that had smartphone plans back then are paying less today. 5 years ago Verizon's smartphone data plan was $45 per month. If you went from a RAZR to an Evo, yeah, your plan probably went up. If you went from a Touch pro 2 to an Evo, your plan probably didn't go up.

3: On the time frame- you can't be serious when you say it has never happened before. It happens all the time in the tech industries. The black and white TV was dead shortly after the color hit the market. The cassette tape was dead shortly after the CD hit the market. The DVD was dead shortly after the Blu-Ray hit the market. The 12 foot dish in your neighbor's backyard was dead shortly after Directv hit the market. And I know what you're thinking, "But that didn't happen in 4 years." Well smartphones have been on the market and gaining traction for a lot longer than 4 years too. This is the way of life in any tech industry. To say it has never happened is completely false. In fact, it has happened with pretty much every tech product ever made. The few that it hasn't happened to, will have it happen to them someday when a better product is made.

4: you're right, the computer manufacturers aren't naive. Dell isn't going anywhere. If you haven't noticed, Dell has been making smartphones. HP bought Palm after several HP smartphones failed on the market. Sony has been making smartphones. Acer has been making smartphones. Toshiba has been making smartphones. Apple has been making smartphones. I don't expect the big computer manufacturers to disappear. I expect them to adapt. And they have already been making smartphones, so they obviously get it.

5: I understand that at work you use some things and you need to be able to work on it at home. And you better believe Microsoft, Google, and Apple all understand this too. The things you run at work will absolutely be able to be run on a smartphone. If not natively then by "remoting in" or even in a Citrix environment (as they did in the video in the first post) and running it right off of your work computer. And the beauty of that is several users can all do it at the same time. So your entire office could all share one computer (Citrix server). You don't think corporation will want to look at that potential cost savings the first time they upgrade their computers (after this is possible, which it isn't today)? I can tell you one thing, if I was the IT manager at your job, and my bonus was based on profits/cost savings/etc, then when it came time to upgrade the office computers, i would absolutely be looking at this. We're talking about saving hundreds of thousands of dollars, and actually increasing productivity in the process.

6: It's totally normal for kids to have smartphones these days. Didn't you just say something about a teenage girl breaking her iPhone? And now you're saying it's not normal? I have news for you- most of my kids' friends all have smartphones too. Not only that, but most of my kids' friends had smartphones 3 years ago. heck when T-Mobile was selling the sidekick, it was almost only kids who used it, and that was one of the hottest selling phones at the time. And that was what, 5 years ago? You're way behind the times if you think it's abnormal for a teenager (which my kids are) to have a smartphone. In fact, I would say it's abnormal for them to not have a smartphone.

7: You keep talking about this scenario where there is literally not 1 single computer for sale. I never said that. But if you want to bet, I will absolutely bet you that in 4 years, all the search engines, ad companies, and whoever else tracks it, will all be reporting that smartphone web traffic greatly surpasses computer web traffic. And I will bet you that all the apps you (and any other average, typical, user) run will be available on smartphones. And most average users will use their smartphone more often than their computer, and will not be buying computers going forward.

8: The people making programs for computers right now are making those programs for use on today's computers. Nobody is making programs for computers n 4 years. How do I know this? Because nobody knows what they need to program for 4 years out. Windows 8 will be totally different. Microsoft has not released any tools to program for it yet. I can assure you, any programmers out there who are making programs that they plan to sell 4 years from now, are doing it on a smartphone platform. people might be programming a game for an xbox, or programming something that a company plans to use internally. But anyone making a program that they plan to sell in 4 years (which is probably nobody, by the way) would certainly not be making it for Windows 8, because the tools don't exist yet. And they wouldn't be doing it for Windows 7, because we already know Windows 7 will be outdated by then. Think about 4 years ago. XP was the most current OS, and an iPhone didn't even exist yet. You really think programmers are making stuff that takes 4 years to hit the market?

Again, lets put a little common sense to this. You don't think a smartphone will ever be able to do what a computer does. For the sake of argument, lets say you're wrong. Lets say that in 2 years, every smartphone on the market is faster and more capable than any computer on the market today. And they all have docks that let them have keyboards, mouse, monitor, laptop docks, etc. If you already own one of those (which by your own cited expert predictions most every average cell phone owner will have a smartphone) would you still buy and use a computer?

Your problem is you keep comparing the smartphones of today against computers of today. The world is changing. Cloud computing is absolutely taking over. Whether you like it or not, admit it or not, it doesn't matter. Cloud computing is still taking over. And that levels the playing field as far as storage between a desktop and a smartphone.

 

[LogGrad98]

I realized I needed to edit my post above. I meant I used the Razr as an example, comparing "most popular phone" then to "most popular phone" today.

And wow are you dogged in not letting your opinion falter or change in the tiniest little bit. DVD dead? Tell that to my DVD collection that I add to every year. I have a Blu-ray player and still cannot find every movie on Blu-ray. DVD players are still outselling Blu-ray and the industry is trying to push more Blu-ray by selling ONLY machines that have Blu-ray capability. Frankly there will be a market for regular DVDs for quite a while, at least until the price difference comes down enough that people choose Blu-ray over DVD.

The cassette took over a decade to go away. First CD players introduced in 1979 or thereabout. Cassettes were still being sold well into the 90's. In the mid-90's my wife bought a music program for my kids that was not available yet on CD. You have your timelines messed up. Or you define "shortly" to fit your argument.

And this new smartphone is new tech, even from current smartphones. It builds off previous platform but so did Blu-ray really. It will take more than 4 years for that new tech to overtake a market as strong as the PC. It will take closer to the decade you specified for other tech.

You conveniently ignore the point of hardware familiarity being one thing that drives computer sales and you focus on the software. And you haven't priced computers through an IT department and simply the cost of cellular plans for an organization have you? Economies of scale are far greater for hardware and broadband internet than they are for cell plans. That is not even taking the phone itself into account, just the service. And cell plans are not magically going to drop in price. But broadband costs are coming down in order to compete with cellular.

And you miss the point again. You said it yourself in the title of the thread and anytime in some way we show any data or professional projections that computers will still be selling strong you go at it like a starving lion after a wounded animal. Then you back off and say "I didn't mean replace".

For being in high-tech you show a lack of understanding about software development. Windows 8 went into development shortly after Windows 7...in 2004-5 timeframe. Microsoft started this practice really after the fiasco of Win 98 and the service pack releases. They had always developed ahead obviously simply due to the time or takes to develop software, but at that point they started developing the future platform before the next platform was released. COD Black Ops has been in development for 3 years before release. Adobe CS5 was in development before the release of CS4 3 years ago. You do realize that software development takes time. You better believe software companies are trying to identify trends and are now developing ideas and ground-work for software and platforms at least 5 years from now, including both PC and phone platforms.

And here is proof you are just defending your position rather than listening and possibly accepting that other ideas have merit:

You don't think a smartphone will ever be able to do what a computer does.

Here is what I said in my previous post:

I absolutely think smartphone technology (although that moniker won't stick for long imho) is the wave of the future. I own an Evo and yes I do know that you can stop the tapatalk commercial if you want to, or change the sig or whatever. =) It cannot be denied what is being packed into those things. There is no doubt in my mind that in time they will be capable of replacing computers the way we know them now

And this:

The thing that I get a real kick out of is the 4 year time frame.

That is the crux of it. I never really considered my Evo taking over my computer until we started this thread. My biggest beef is the timeframe that you doggedly stick to without wavering in the least. I already expressed I am very impressed with where the tech is heading.

You undermine your entire argument by not being able to budge in the least. We present market forecasts by companies that do that for a living, you basically say they are up in the night. Anything else presented is simply wiped away with a "it will only happen the way I think it will" regardless of source. It is hard to argue with fact vs opinion when the person with the opinion cannot acknowledge the facts in the slightest.

 

[VINYLONE]

So I just got back from the smartphone store here in LA. I no longer need to drive to work. My Android teleports me there. Success!

 

[LogGrad98]

So I just got back from the smartphone store here in LA. I no longer need to drive to work. My Android teleports me there. Success!

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to VINYLONE again.

 

[VINYLONE]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to VINYLONE again.

Try using your smartphone to leave the rep...Android bypasses all reputation restrictions.

 

[TroutBum]

Try using your smartphone to leave the rep...Android bypasses all reputation restrictions.

Holy piss, he's right.

 

[unluckyseventeen]

I wonder when LG is going to give up. Not because he's wrong by any stretch, but because I'm sure he could find better things to do with his time.

 

[LogGrad98]

I wonder when LG is going to give up. Not because he's wrong by any stretch, but because I'm sure he could find better things to do with his time.

Read the last paragraph of my last big post. That is the answer.

 

[moevillini]

Try using your smartphone to leave the rep...Android bypasses all reputation restrictions.

I can't figure out how to give rep at all with this tapatalk program.

I can't give infractions either ;-)


Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk

 

[SaltyDawg]

I realized I needed to edit my post above. I meant I used the Razr as an example, comparing "most popular phone" then to "most popular phone" today.

And wow are you dogged in not letting your opinion falter or change in the tiniest little bit. DVD dead? Tell that to my DVD collection that I add to every year. I have a Blu-ray player and still cannot find every movie on Blu-ray. DVD players are still outselling Blu-ray and the industry is trying to push more Blu-ray by selling ONLY machines that have Blu-ray capability. Frankly there will be a market for regular DVDs for quite a while, at least until the price difference comes down enough that people choose Blu-ray over DVD.

The cassette took over a decade to go away. First CD players introduced in 1979 or thereabout. Cassettes were still being sold well into the 90's. In the mid-90's my wife bought a music program for my kids that was not available yet on CD. You have your timelines messed up. Or you define "shortly" to fit your argument.

And this new smartphone is new tech, even from current smartphones. It builds off previous platform but so did Blu-ray really. It will take more than 4 years for that new tech to overtake a market as strong as the PC. It will take closer to the decade you specified for other tech.

You conveniently ignore the point of hardware familiarity being one thing that drives computer sales and you focus on the software. And you haven't priced computers through an IT department and simply the cost of cellular plans for an organization have you? Economies of scale are far greater for hardware and broadband internet than they are for cell plans. That is not even taking the phone itself into account, just the service. And cell plans are not magically going to drop in price. But broadband costs are coming down in order to compete with cellular.

And you miss the point again. You said it yourself in the title of the thread and anytime in some way we show any data or professional projections that computers will still be selling strong you go at it like a starving lion after a wounded animal. Then you back off and say "I didn't mean replace".

For being in high-tech you show a lack of understanding about software development. Windows 8 went into development shortly after Windows 7...in 2004-5 timeframe. Microsoft started this practice really after the fiasco of Win 98 and the service pack releases. They had always developed ahead obviously simply due to the time or takes to develop software, but at that point they started developing the future platform before the next platform was released. COD Black Ops has been in development for 3 years before release. Adobe CS5 was in development before the release of CS4 3 years ago. You do realize that software development takes time. You better believe software companies are trying to identify trends and are now developing ideas and ground-work for software and platforms at least 5 years from now, including both PC and phone platforms.

And here is proof you are just defending your position rather than listening and possibly accepting that other ideas have merit:



Here is what I said in my previous post:



And this:



That is the crux of it. I never really considered my Evo taking over my computer until we started this thread. My biggest beef is the timeframe that you doggedly stick to without wavering in the least. I already expressed I am very impressed with where the tech is heading.

You undermine your entire argument by not being able to budge in the least. We present market forecasts by companies that do that for a living, you basically say they are up in the night. Anything else presented is simply wiped away with a "it will only happen the way I think it will" regardless of source. It is hard to argue with fact vs opinion when the person with the opinion cannot acknowledge the facts in the slightest.

1: I knew you were going to go to the "it took longer than 4 years" card. I already explained it, but I'll say it again: smartphones have been on the market a lot longer than 4 years, and gaining traction every year. The first smartphone was actually made by IBM in 1992. You think the atrix is new tech? LOL! it's not new. The only thing new about it is it is the first phone being marketed as one that can replace a desktop. There have been docks for years. Maybe not as nice as those docks, but docks are not new. The Palm Treo 180 had a dock back in 2002.

2: Yes, I have priced computers for an IT department. That used to be my job at one time. You obviously haven't if you are debating the cost benefit here. Again, $360 for you and me to go buy an atrix with the laptop dock and the HD (desktop) dock. If we're getting it for that, you can bet the IT departments are getting it for around $200-$250 for the total package. yes, they will have a monthly cell phone bill. Chances are they already have a monthly cell phone bill for a lot of the people in the office anyway. And that monthly cell phone bill will be significantly cheaper than what you or I would pay. Think about how much cheaper a 4 line family plan is when compared to an individual plan. Now imagine if that was a 200 line plan. It will be significantly cheaper than an individual plan.

3: Windows 8 is in development, yes. There are no development tools available for it yet. You can't develop a program for Windows 8 yet because there are no development tools. Period. You have no idea what you're talking about if you are seriously trying to tell me that people are making programs right now that won't be released until Windows 8. It's not possible to code for Windows 8 right now. And with it running on ARM architecture it will be totally different than any Windows that has ever been released. The closest thing to it is the current Windows Phone platform, which is still totally different but closer than any previous version of Windows.

4: I budge when I am presented with a reason to budge. Clearly, I don't think you know what you're talking about. I know for sure unlucky doesn't- he said he's never even owned a cell phone so how the heck is he supposed to predict where the industry is headed? And KEK doesn't either, he's demonstrated that in this thread, and also never even claimed to know. Citing market forecasts that were already proven wrong by the past 3 months of computer sales (lower than expected, while smartphone sales were higher than expected and Google had their most profitable quarter ever) is not helping your case. If a good reason is given for me to alter my opinion, then I'll alter my opinion. But a bunch of people who have no idea just telling me they think I'm wrong, well that is not going to change my opinion one bit. I hear 10-20 people talking about how this is imminent every single day for every one of you guys that are posting about me being wrong. And I'm talking people that are actually educated on this subject and not just trolling, pulling it out of their rear, never even owned a cell phone, etc.

You can disagree with me all you want. We'll see who was right in the end. If I was going to run and hide from this prediction then I would not have started this thread. You may or may not know, but this thread is a "bump" from the old board when I made this same prediction.

 

[SaltyDawg]

https://www.engadget.com/2011/02/08/idc-says-100-9m-smartphones-sold-in-fourth-quarter-pcs-outsold/

IDC says 100.9M smartphones sold in fourth quarter, PCs outsold for first time

In case you had any lingering doubt that the smartphone is the new personal computer, just take a glance at IDC's new global smartphone sales numbers for the fourth quarter of 2010 where we learn that some 100.9 million units were pushed in the three-month period -- up a whopping 87.9 percent year over year. That figure compares to 92.1 million PCs sold during the same quarter, which, though a record for the PC industry, was left in the dust of the smartphone's stratospheric rise. This marks the very first quarter in history that smartphones have outsold traditional computers -- and considering the trajectories that both industries are in, we'd be surprised if they ever flip-flopped again. If anything, IDC and other analysis firms might need to readjust the nomenclature in their reports in a few years if (or when) convergence platforms like the Atrix 4G with its Laptop Dock start to gain traction. Of course, to Bill Gates and others, this technological cross-pollination comes as no surprise -- and really, who can argue with a handheld that's packing PC power?

Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Man, you're a ****ing embarrassment.