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Some stats about the NBA draft (depressing)

green

green

Well-Known Member
From 1995-2009 (I didn't include 2010 and later because they really hurt the stats), here is the chance you get an All-Star with your pick:

#1: 67%
#2: 33%
#3: 60%
#4: 33%
#5: 33%
#6: 27%
#7: 20%
#8: 0%
#9: 47%
#10: 33%

So, you want the #1 pick, then the #3, then the #9. Makes me wonder if the #2 pick usually tries too hard.

Now, I firmly believe that it isn't the slot you pick in, but how smart you are. Here are the % of players available at each range that will be an All-Star at some point:

#1: 19% (33% of #1 picks are never All-Stars or All-NBA players)
#2-5: 17%
#6-10: 11%
#10+: 7% (out of 5 second round picks that were picked as All-Stars, three were Jazzmen, Millsap, Okur, Boozer)

Finally, the goal is to win a title, right? Here is the chance you have at picking a future NBA Finals MVP:

#1: 20%
#2: 0%
#3: 7% (Billups)
#4: 0%
#5: 7% (Wade, BUT, you could say it was Shaq, not Wade that allowed the Heat to be in the finals)
#6: 0%
#7: 0%
#8: 0%
#9: 7% (Pierce, but he also had two other HOF'ers and an All-Star PG)
#10: 7% (Dirk)

So, if you want to win a title, you had better either have the #1 pick when Shaq, Duncan or LeBron is available.

That's why this year is so important to get the #1 pick. There might be a Shaq, Duncan or LeBron available.

If we go back to 1990, you needed Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan, Shaq, Billups, Pierce, Lebrun or Kobe to win a title. Yikes. If you throw out the two outliers, you only had a shot if you had one of 6 players. Over a 23 year period.

Look at those picks:

Jordan (#3, Hakeem went #1)
Hakeem (#1 pick)
Duncan (#1 pick)
Shaq (#1 pick)
LeBron (#1 pick)
Kobe (#13 pick, BUT he was the first HS player taken, and that scared off a lot of people. If that draft were held today, Kobe would go #1, Iverson #2).

So, without the #1 pick, you really have no shot at a title.

That's why this year was so important. Rght now, there are only three teams that have a shot at winning a title: Miami, OKC, San Antonio. And putting OKC on that list is debatable (they might have given up their spot when stupidly traded Harden). And please, don't start talking to me about Indiana. Puhhhleease.

One team will join that list after this draft. Maybe two. The crazy thing is, after this year, it looks like 2017 is the next chance someone will have to join that list.

This year was key. And we blew it. All so we could "play hard" and "have integrity". Too bad. The good news for those fans is that we will back to a 5-7 seed every year and a second round loss. Hopefully the NBA gods shine down on us in the lottery or in 2017.
 
That being said, after seeing the list of needing Shaq, Duncan or LeBron to win a title, is Embiid the only player in this draft that gives you a shot at a title? Makes me think so. Could imagine this team:

Burke
Hayward/Burks
whoever
Favors/Kanter
Embiid/Gobert

Yikes. That might be the recipe. We really need Favors to take the year off. And Burke as much as possible as well.
 
Oh how I miss the days when I could root for wins. All this rooting for losses has really destroyed the game, this forum, and my psyche. I just pray we get the price we need so we can go back to normal after this year. I really hope we don't get stuck like this

Sent from the JazzFanz app
 
I don't like stats like these. There's nothing special about the picks, except for the top picks where you get to choose out of all the players.
 
Doublea said:
I don't like stats like these. There's nothing special about the picks, except for the top picks where you get to choose out of all the players.
Click to expand...

And without a #1 pick and luck, you have no shot at a title.
 
jope said:
Oh how I miss the days when I could root for wins. All this rooting for losses has really destroyed the game, this forum, and my psyche. I just pray we get the price we need so we can go back to normal after this year. I really hope we don't get stuck like this

Sent from the JazzFanz app
Click to expand...

Dont worry, we will be back to rooting for wins next year..... only like 20 games to go.
Until then, smoke pot daily to get you through the tough times
 
It's about being smart. Figuring out who the best players are and doing everything you can to draft them. I think NBA teams worry too much about positional needs. Stars are special. Pick them and let your coach sort out the lineup.

This is also why you should move heaven and Earth to go get a star any way available. Draft, trade or free agency. Always be the team offering the most. And go after every one out there - even if there's no chance they choose to play in Utah. Lebron? Yep. Carmello? Damn strait. Be loud and obnoxious about wanting to land a star. Even if it's Dwight Howard. At some point, a Stockton and/or Malone will come and stay.
 
LunaticWolf said:
Been saying this for a long time. And even then, the #1 pick isn't a guaranteed championship either. This is why tanking is just stupid.
Click to expand...

So what do you suggest the jazz should do right now?

You agree that you need a #1 pick (superstar) to win a title..... but you dont want to do whats necessary to give you the best shot at that superstar?
 
green said:
That being said, after seeing the list of needing Shaq, Duncan or LeBron to win a title, is Embiid the only player in this draft that gives you a shot at a title? Makes me think so. Could imagine this team:

Burke
Hayward/Burks
whoever
Favors/Kanter
Embiid/Gobert

Yikes. That might be the recipe. We really need Favors to take the year off. And Burke as much as possible as well.
Click to expand...


Is Whoever a foreign player?
 
green said:
From 1995-2009 (I didn't include 2010 and later because they really hurt the stats), here is the chance you get an All-Star with your pick...
Click to expand...
There is no point in comparing the drafts of the mid-90s with the drafts of the late 2000s: in the 90s most of the players entered the draft as 22-year-olds who played 4 years in college and were well known. Later the teams started swinging wildly at the raw 18/19 year olds, producing such high pick gems as Darko, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, and Marvin Williams.

It is very much hit-or-miss these days.
 
Draft is a crap shoot at best. And despite the joy folks get on trashing our FO, our drafting overall has been fine - not the best but a long way from the worst.
 
fishonjazz said:
Dont worry, we will be back to rooting for wins next year..... only like 20 games to go.
Until then, smoke pot daily to get you through the tough times
Click to expand...

1939878_10151934117721814_825320287_n.jpg
 
Um, anyone going on about the 1, 3 and 9 pick needs to check their comprehension skills.

Holy cow.

Lol. Amazing what some people look for. Frustrating.


" Originally Posted by green

Now, I firmly believe that it isn't the slot you pick in, but how smart you are."
 
green said:
Um, anyone going on about the 1, 3 and 9 pick needs to check their comprehension skills.

Holy cow.

Lol. Amazing what some people look for. Frustrating.


" Originally Posted by green

Now, I firmly believe that it isn't the slot you pick in, but how smart you are."
Click to expand...

Then why post, "looks like we need to get either the #1, #3, or #9 picks."
 
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