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Spidy on Royce

idiot said:
Players who don’t fit as a “wing” in either game or size with at least a chance of starting at PF this year:

Millsap
Z. Collins
AD
Looney (unlikely, but possible given GS’s dearth of wings)
Aldridge
Griffin
Giannis
Bagley/Bjelica
Porzingis
Zion
Horford
Siakam (wing or PF size?); Ibaka might even get a few starts depending on wing production/health
Everyone on the Knicks
Possibly (though not likely) someone on the Wolves: Vonleh, Bell, for example
Markkanen
Love
J. Collins
JJJ
Saric

Plus plenty of other more “true” PFs will be used at the PF off the bench.

So I think reports of PF’s demise are a bit premature.

How many of the above do we want Royce guarding? I guess that’s a different question.
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I want him guarding millsap, looney and saric and maybe love, zion, the knicks guys, and the wolves guys.

You make a good point


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idiot said:
Hope you end up being right. But the big difference (that doesn't really touch on the issue of the position played) is that Jae was willing and able to put up shots while Royce is extremely reluctant. Maybe it won't matter much with Conley and Bogdanovic on the court, but Royce won't be guarded as much as Jae was on the perimeter until he proves with some volume that he'll burn a team that leaves him open.
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Another good post but like jingled said, he wont need to jack up shots like crowder did (this was bad btw as his efficiency was horrible but i get that someone had to shoot. Thats not a problem anymore) and his decision making on offense is quick and smart. He might not be a ball user (usage) or a shot taker, but he is a ball mover and shot maker.


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If Royce plays 24 minutes, his rate from last year would have him at 1.0 3-pter made per game. I don't think teams are worried too much about him at that rate.

When I was looking at shot quality data, Royce's pattern really stood out. He very rarely took anything but wide open shots (closest defender 6+ feet). When he wasn't wide open (even with defender at 4-6 feet) his percentage made dropped off a cliff, much more than almost anyone else on the team. I appreciate where he's come in his career, but for him to be a real threat as a stretch 4, this ability to put up and hit not-totally-wide-open shots has to improve.
 
btw, I think (following Andy Larsen) that Royce's reluctance to shoot is an argument for starting him rather than for having him off the bench. If Ingles is off the bench, he's reluctant, Exum is (semi-) reluctant, Davis is reluctant, you wouldn't want Mudiay with a green light. It's probably better to have Green as a primary bench scorer.
 
fishonjazz said:
I want him guarding millsap, looney and saric and maybe love, zion, the knicks guys, and the wolves guys.

You make a good point


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Click to expand...

I'd be most nervous about him guarding: the two Collins, Aldridge, Griffin, AD, Horford, Zion, Giannis, Bagley, Porzingis, (maybe) Markkanen, Love, JJJ, and (maybe) Siakam. But that's based on incomplete knowledge. We won't really know how he does until he's given a shot at guarding big 4s.
 
fishonjazz said:
Another good post but like jingled said, he wont need to jack up shots like crowder did (this was bad btw as his efficiency was horrible but i get that someone had to shoot. Thats not a problem anymore) and his decision making on offense is quick and smart. He might not be a ball user (usage) or a shot taker, but he is a ball mover and shot maker.


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Click to expand...
That last sentence rips. Nice work.
 
idiot said:
If Royce plays 24 minutes, his rate from last year would have him at 1.0 3-pter made per game. I don't think teams are worried too much about him at that rate.

When I was looking at shot quality data, Royce's pattern really stood out. He very rarely took anything but wide open shots (closest defender 6+ feet). When he wasn't wide open (even with defender at 4-6 feet) his percentage made dropped off a cliff, much more than almost anyone else on the team. I appreciate where he's come in his career, but for him to be a real threat as a stretch 4, this ability to put up and hit not-totally-wide-open shots has to improve.
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Not too worried about that. If anything he will get more totally-wide-open looks this year than last year. Jae can hit some real highly contested tough looks sometimes. But his overall efficiency is hurt by him constantly missing those wide open easy looks. We don't need Royce to be hitting ridiculous shots like Jae did for us last year. All we need is for him to be consistent on his wide open shots. If the defenders want to guard him on the 3s, that'd only work to our favor as it opens up driving lanes for DM and Conley.
 
idiot said:
If Royce plays 24 minutes, his rate from last year would have him at 1.0 3-pter made per game. I don't think teams are worried too much about him at that rate.

When I was looking at shot quality data, Royce's pattern really stood out. He very rarely took anything but wide open shots (closest defender 6+ feet). When he wasn't wide open (even with defender at 4-6 feet) his percentage made dropped off a cliff, much more than almost anyone else on the team. I appreciate where he's come in his career, but for him to be a real threat as a stretch 4, this ability to put up and hit not-totally-wide-open shots has to improve.
Click to expand...

Good point on this. That said, the most common lineups for Royce usually included Mitchell at PG, so it usually allowed/forced the defender to slag off to help on Donovan or switch on a screen. What you said is very true if we're going to use him to replace Jae (very likely). That said, we have more bombers on the team now than last year. Something will have to give, and Royce will probably benefit.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advan...son&TeamID=1610612762&CF=GROUP_NAME*R*O'Neale
 
In one of the first games I saw of Royce he came down the court like a freight train and without breaking stride slammed a dunk Vinsanity-style. That's when I thought this guy might be different.
 
NUMBERICA said:
He would be the 4. I think that's very much in the realm of possibility. I think starting 4 is going to be fluid, but it could well be that Royce is the default.

Ingles would come off the bench.
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I been beating this drum too. Royce as our power wing four makes so much sense... as a starter or off the bench.
 
Spida always doing the right thing. Good dude
Screenshot_20190813-184023__01.jpeg

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