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Starting PG?

I've posted this before, but just a reminder that our offense went from top 5 before we traded Conley to bottom 10 after we traded Conley. Obviously a lot more was going on besides the trade, but I think a fair way to assess this is two man lineups with Lauri:

Two Man Lineup Offensive Rating with Lauri -
Conley - 118.9 (952 min)
Sexton - 116.7 (759 min)
THT - 115.5 (567 min)
Dunn - 109.0 (170 min)

The Collins trade signals to me that we are trying to win next year. I think there is a good chance that the front office isn't comfortable trying to win with our current PG options.
 
fishonjazz said:
Some statistical comparisons fwiw

THT pp36: 19.1 (shooting splits of 41.9%, 28.6%, 75%)
Dunn pp36: 18.4 (shooting splits of 53.7%, 47.2%, 77.%)
Sexton pp36: 21.5 (shooting splits of 50.6%, 39.3%, 81.9%)

THT assists per 36: 6.7
Dunn assists per 36: 7.9
Sexton assists per 36: 4.3

THT rebounds per 36: 5.8
Dunn rebounds per 36: 6.3
Sexton rebounds per 36: 3.3

THT steals per 36: 1.1
Dunn steals per 36: 1.6
Sexton steals per 36: 0.8

THT turnovers per 36: 3.5
Dunn turnovers per 36: 2.2
Sexton turnovers per 36: 3.5

THT is 22 years old and is 6;4" and 234 pounds (makes 11 million if he opts in)
Dunn is 29 years old and 6'3" 205 pounds (makes 2.5 million)
Sexton is 24 years old and 6;1" 190 pounds (makes 19 million)

So Dunn was the most efficient of the group scoring wise (though he scored slightly less), Dunn had the most assist and way less turnovers (great ratio there), Dunn was the better rebounder, and Dunn had more steals (seemed like the best defender eye test wise too). Dunn is also the cheapest but also the oldest.
Its a tough decision on who to start.
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the real issue and it is an elephant in the room, is tht's shooting. his TS% was almost below the elfrid line which is unacceptable for any guy playing big minutes on any team that hopes to compete.
 
I would love to trade for one of the Magic Point Guards, Fultz, Suggs, Black. But beyond that I would just 100% go with Dunn and THT and make a midseason course correction or a g league scrub signing. What I learned is that you just don't force a PG solution. It's either a high end guard or bottom end guy trying to prove something.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I've posted this before, but just a reminder that our offense went from top 5 before we traded Conley to bottom 10 after we traded Conley. Obviously a lot more was going on besides the trade, but I think a fair way to assess this is two man lineups with Lauri:

Two Man Lineup Offensive Rating with Lauri -
Conley - 118.9 (952 min)
Sexton - 116.7 (759 min)
THT - 115.5 (567 min)
Dunn - 109.0 (170 min)

The Collins trade signals to me that we are trying to win next year. I think there is a good chance that the front office isn't comfortable trying to win with our current PG options.
Click to expand...

Yeah....there was a lot more going on besides Conley leaving, and there are also two sides of the ball. Total net rating with Lauri was higher with both Sexton and THT. This doesn't mean we are set at PG....but Conley wasn't a world beater last season.
 
KqWIN said:
Yeah....there was a lot more going on besides Conley leaving, and there are also two sides of the ball. Total net rating with Lauri was higher with both Sexton and THT. This doesn't mean we are set at PG....but Conley wasn't a world beater last season.
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I thought it was pretty visually obvious the difference of having a true point guard made. I think there are some stats that back that up, but it's true they are very messy based on trying to throw out tanking rosters.
 
KqWIN said:
Yeah....there was a lot more going on besides Conley leaving, and there are also two sides of the ball. Total net rating with Lauri was higher with both Sexton and THT. This doesn't mean we are set at PG....but Conley wasn't a world beater last season.
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Yep. Huge difference when playing with the likes of Simone, dok, tuscano Anderson, juzang, sumanic, and Jones.

I don't think Conley played much at all with any of those guys listed. Dunn and tht did though. Kinda unfair.
 
fishonjazz said:
Some statistical comparisons fwiw

THT pp36: 19.1 (shooting splits of 41.9%, 28.6%, 75%)
Dunn pp36: 18.4 (shooting splits of 53.7%, 47.2%, 77.%)
Sexton pp36: 21.5 (shooting splits of 50.6%, 39.3%, 81.9%)

THT assists per 36: 6.7
Dunn assists per 36: 7.9
Sexton assists per 36: 4.3

THT rebounds per 36: 5.8
Dunn rebounds per 36: 6.3
Sexton rebounds per 36: 3.3

THT steals per 36: 1.1
Dunn steals per 36: 1.6
Sexton steals per 36: 0.8

THT turnovers per 36: 3.5
Dunn turnovers per 36: 2.2
Sexton turnovers per 36: 3.5

THT is 22 years old and is 6;4" and 234 pounds (makes 11 million if he opts in)
Dunn is 29 years old and 6'3" 205 pounds (makes 2.5 million)
Sexton is 24 years old and 6;1" 190 pounds (makes 19 million)

So Dunn was the most efficient of the group scoring wise (though he scored slightly less), Dunn had the most assist and way less turnovers (great ratio there), Dunn was the better rebounder, and Dunn had more steals (seemed like the best defender eye test wise too). Dunn is also the cheapest but also the oldest.
Its a tough decision on who to start.
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Mike Conley per 36: 13 points (worst), 9 assists (best), 3 rebounds (worst), 2.1 turnovers (best), 1.2 steals (second best), shooting splits of 41%, 36%, 81% (3rd best).
Of course his contract was by far the worst and so was his age.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I thought it was pretty visually obvious the difference of having a true point guard made. I think there are some stats that back that up, but it's true they are very messy based on trying to throw out tanking rosters.
Click to expand...

The numbers aren't really in Conley's favor. Numbers get messy because the roster was messy, but it's hard to find a significant reason to believe that Conley was the guy keeping everything together. For example, the three mainstays in our "normal" starting lineup were Lauri, KO, and Clarkson. Here's the net rating for Conely vs Sexton/THT in those lineups:

Conley: +1.85 (464 minutes)
Sexton OR THT: +11.7 (379 minutes)

Sample sizes are small, but it's hard to make the argument that Conley was so important when the starting group was almost 10 points better per100 with Sexton or THT.
 
KqWIN said:
The numbers aren't really in Conley's favor. Numbers get messy because the roster was messy, but it's hard to find a significant reason to believe that Conley was the guy keeping everything together. For example, the three mainstays in our "normal" starting lineup were Lauri, KO, and Clarkson. Here's the net rating for Conely vs Sexton/THT in those lineups:

Conley: +1.85 (464 minutes)
Sexton OR THT: +11.7 (379 minutes)

Sample sizes are small, but it's hard to make the argument that Conley was so important when the starting group was almost 10 points better per100 with Sexton or THT.
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You are missing the point of what I was originally posting about. My point isn't about was Conley or Sexton or THT better. My point was about whether or not we should pursue a point guard in free agency. I believe our offense was much better with a better facilitator. I could see the front office agreeing and feeling the need to find one before the season starts.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
You are missing the point of what I was originally posting about. My point isn't about was Conley or Sexton or THT better. My point was about whether or not we should pursue a point guard in free agency. I believe our offense was much better with a better facilitator. I could see the front office agreeing and feeling the need to find one before the season starts.
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Sounds good
But not sure Jazz should spend 25-30 million per yr for one
 
whatthe said:
I would love to trade for one of the Magic Point Guards, Fultz, Suggs, Black. But beyond that I would just 100% go with Dunn and THT and make a midseason course correction or a g league scrub signing. What I learned is that you just don't force a PG solution. It's either a high end guard or bottom end guy trying to prove something.
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Fultz is probably the easiest to get. Lottery protected First and filler would probably do it. Olynyk maybe?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
You are missing the point of what I was originally posting about. My point isn't about was Conley or Sexton or THT better. My point was about whether or not we should pursue a point guard in free agency. I believe our offense was much better with a better facilitator. I could see the front office agreeing and feeling the need to find one before the season starts.
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I mean, I also said this does not mean we do not need a PG. But your post I replied specifically noted the differences before and after Conley and attributed those changes to him. So that was what I was responding to. The starters offense was significantly better with one of Sexton/THT than with Conley. As a team they were about 10 points better with Sexton or THT. If you only look at offense they were about 8 points better.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Tony made it seem like Dunn might not even be on the team to start the year.
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Which is weird cuz dude was awesome last year and is on a damn minimum deal. I think with all the forward depth we have Simone and Luka are the ones that might have some worries.
 
KqWIN said:
I mean, I also said this does not mean we do not need a PG. But your post I replied specifically noted the differences before and after Conley and attributed those changes to him. So that was what I was responding to. The starters offense was significantly better with one of Sexton/THT than with Conley. As a team they were about 10 points better with Sexton or THT. If you only look at offense they were about 8 points better.
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I'm just curious what lineup data you are referring to as the "starters offense", what players are you referring to as the starter's lineup and how many minutes does that represent with everyone?
 
KqWIN said:
Listed in the original reply.
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Ah, I see it now, thanks.

I think that's a fair way to look at the lineup data, although I have some nitpicky reasons why I think it's a little misleading, but don't think it's worth continuing the discussion.
 
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