Stockton's assists record unbreakable. Steals nearly so.

[sirkickyass]

Hollinger had a column today about estimates of the likelihood various "all-time" records would be broken.

The (brief) method:

The method is outlined here and it's pretty long-winded, so if you don't want to read it all here's the Cliff Notes version: Establish the player's current rate of production in a given category, establish how many more the player needs in that category to break the record, and establish how long the player is likely to play. From those three inputs, we derive a percentage chance of the player breaking the record.

At the end of the article there's this nugget:

If you're a point guard, by the way, you're probably out of luck in the quest for career records. John Stockton's assists record is pretty much permanently out of reach, and his record for steals isn't much more likely to fall. Chris Paul is the only player with an established chance (4.4 percent) at the steals record, and knowing what we do about CP3's knees makes it seem unlikely he'll have the necessary longevity to break it.

It's official, John Hollinger is CarolinaJazz.

 

[JAZZFAN_2814]

There's likelihood. Then there's zero-sum.

Biggest problem I have with Hollinger is one oft-stated -- that is, stats versus on-court analysis, either through tape or from the sidelines -- and, more specifically, it applies to something like Stockon's records very simply: inability or disinterest in considering eras and rules that currently apply, or could apply.

When Hollinger, to my recollection, has analyzed MJ versus LeBron this has been a critical flaw in the analysis. In fact, the only time he really addressed the issue of what the NBA was relative to what it now is took place with the contrived media blowup over Jordan's "100 points" comment, and within that he both missed Jordan's (view)point (in halving the comment, as almost all the media did through a memorandum and monopolized frenzy of pushing the latest lie, itself a conflated defense of Stern's machinations, and a way to draw attention through the Jordan Brand) and strived to twist what words were actually quoted (from 100 points in a game, to 100 each and every game).

The issue, then, is that the basis for these numbers -- the nature of the game and how its tilted through certain talent-markers or variables -- could change any offseason. Hollinger's biggest flaw is that he isn't interested in these issues; but then, perhaps he isn't allowed to be (it's one thing for the NBA to change its rules to favor certain styles of play and players, but it's quite another to talk openly about it; which is why Scottie Pippen is no longer working for Disney).

All that said, Hollinger isn't just the best analyst ESPN has. He's the only one they have.

Marc Stein is a lousy version of Ahmad Rashad (he looks like he could sit comfortably on Dirk's lap, however). And Ric Bucher confused his career-field with that of Bob Sugar. Adande? Well, at least he isn't Bill Plaschke. The Sports Guy was a writer for Jimmy Kimmel, and his schtick (make an, often, sport-myopic or illiterate statement, bathe it in pop culture allegory as a hedge that obfuscates the lack of honesty or alacrity in that initial assertion, thus creating content as little more than window dressing for writing that is nothing more than a naked dummy; spit, rinse, repeat) is one of the best arguments against Kevin Smith-style postmodernism since...well, Kevin Smith.

 

[LogGrad98]

There's likelihood. Then there's zero-sum.

Biggest problem I have with Hollinger is one oft-stated -- that is, stats versus on-court analysis, either through tape or from the sidelines -- and, more specifically, it applies to something like Stockon's records very simply: inability or disinterest in considering eras and rules that currently apply, or could apply.

When Hollinger, to my recollection, has analyzed MJ versus LeBron this has been a critical flaw in the analysis. In fact, the only time he really addressed the issue of what the NBA was relative to what it now is took place with the contrived media blowup over Jordan's "100 points" comment, and within that he both missed Jordan's (view)point (in halving the comment, as almost all the media did through a memorandum and monopolized frenzy of pushing the latest lie, itself a conflated defense of Stern's machinations, and a way to draw attention through the Jordan Brand) and strived to twist what words were actually quoted (from 100 points in a game, to 100 each and every game).

The issue, then, is that the basis for these numbers -- the nature of the game and how its tilted through certain talent-markers or variables -- could change any offseason. Hollinger's biggest flaw is that he isn't interested in these issues; but then, perhaps he isn't allowed to be (it's one thing for the NBA to change its rules to favor certain styles of play and players, but it's quite another to talk openly about it; which is why Scottie Pippen is no longer working for Disney).

All that said, Hollinger isn't just the best analyst ESPN has. He's the only one they have.

Marc Stein is a lousy version of Ahmad Rashad (he looks like he could sit comfortably on Dirk's lap, however). And Ric Bucher confused his career-field with that of Bob Sugar. Adande? Well, at least he isn't Bill Plaschke. The Sports Guy was a writer for Jimmy Kimmel, and his schtick (make an, often, sport-myopic or illiterate statement, bathe it in pop culture allegory as a hedge that obfuscates the lack of honesty or alacrity in that initial assertion, thus creating content as little more than window dressing for writing that is nothing more than a naked dummy; spit, rinse, repeat) is one of the best arguments against Kevin Smith-style postmodernism since...well, Kevin Smith.

Wow, insightful and poignant. Straight to the heart of the matter. And TLDR.






Ok ok just kidding. I think you hit Hollinger pretty much spot on. But if we take him as just another faint star in the galaxy of NBA "analysts" he does have info that has some validity and at least sparks interesting debate.

 

[sirkickyass]

I'm old and I hate everything.

 

[JAZZFAN_2814]

Is that Bono?

So far as hating the "new", that's actually pretty inverse to my argument against ESPN: there's nothing new about these 40-somethings that construct articles as if they were writing team media guides. This "era" of ESPN's NBA coverage is frankly old, particularly when watching Marc Stein, the cocktail weeny, push Steve Nash agitprop.

That's cutting edge? Spot the irony. I think you've just underlined how old you must be to believe that.

When zeitgeist is nothing but a mix of celeb reporting and pop culture nostalgia, perhaps the past is more like the future.

Age as a measure of quality is its own sophistry. Or can be.

As a deducing measure and deciding point -- exegesis through linchpin -- it's telling how little the NBA and its media partners (one and the same) want to compare the NBA of the present to the past through these, supposedly, game-improving rules. As noted, that's what bothered them about Jordan's comment, which they then twisted into another celebrity-smear campaign to draw hits while obfuscating meaning.

Business as usual.

 

[LogGrad98]

Yeah.


As far as Stock's records go I have to agree with Hollinger. It is highly unlikely that another PG comes along that has the same or similar combination of skills, tenacity, competetiveness, drive, and longevity as Stock, and it would take a combination of those to reach that pinacle. Stock's assist record is pretty safe into the foreseeable future. His steals numbers may be more attainable, but even that would require a truly special player. Even Jordan would have taken some time to overtake the steals record from Stock.

It is pretty rare in sports to achieve something like that, and it is pretty cool it happened with our team. I loved watching it in the making.

 

[carolinajazz]

It's official, John Hollinger is CarolinaJazz.

....well, when you consider that in todays NBA passing was become mostly a lost "art"....theres virtually zero chance that anybody could break Stocks assist record. Plus, you'd have to consider the fact that the Stockton/Malone pick and roll in which John got most of his assists will never be duplicated either! Then when you consider that defense has also become a lost "art" his steals record is pretty much gold, too!