The Current Finacial Situation 9/25/10

[franklin]

You guys are idiots. Here's the real numbers, compiled from a number of sources and largely cribbed from my posts in the YB forum.

The luxury tax number for the upcoming season is $70.37 million according to Larry Coon.

Utah's current salary cap numbers (based upon the best info I can find)

Utah's current salary obligations:

AK: 17.823 million
Deron: 13.940 million
Jefferson: 13.0 million
Okur: 9.945 million
Millsap: 7.60 million
CJ Miles: 3.7 million
Bell: 3.0 million
Hayward: 2.356 million
Price: 1.381 million
Watson: 1.272 million (assuming veteran minimum contract)
Elson: $1.146 million
Gaines: .762 million (unguaranteed)
Jeffers: .762 million (unguaranteed)
Evans: .474 million (unguaranteed)
Thompson: .474 million (unguaranteed)

Total:

75.163 million guaranteed
77.635 million guaranteed + nonguaranteed

Add $1.088 million to each if you assume that Fesenko will be signed to his QO.

Utah's obligations post-trade:

Deron: 13.940 million
Jefferson: 13.0 million
Okur: 9.945 million
Diaw: 9.0 million
Millsap: 7.60 million
CJ Miles: 3.7 million
Bell: 3.0 million
Hayward: 2.356 million
Price: 1.381 million
Watson: 1.272 million (assuming veteran minimum contract)
Elson: $1.146 million
Ross: $1.0 million
Gaines: .762 million (unguaranteed)
Jeffers: .762 million (unguaranteed)
Evans: .474 million (unguaranteed)
Thompson: .474 million (unguaranteed)

Total:

$67.34 million guaranteed
69.812 million guaranteed + non-guaranteed

Again, add $1.088 million for Fesenko's QO.

Because the Jazz can hold 17 players huh.

Maybe you should check your math before acting like a hard *** and telling everyone you're a professional at this. Not only did you add in an extra million in all 4 caclulations, you didn't account for getting two players back for one. This changes the scenario enough to render your entire analysis useless.

Using your numbers put into a 21st century calculator:

Pre-trade
75.163 guaranteed + 2 x .474 = $76.111. This is the minimum the Jazz can pay this year with 13 players.

Post-trade
$67.34 guaranteed + .474 = $67.814. This is the minimum the Jazz can pay post-trade with 13 players.

($76.111-70.37)(2) + ($2 -$4 LT payout) = $13.482 - $15.482.

This is not a publicly traded company and doing books like it is makes no sense. The Jazz are most likely to make a move next year anyway, so subtracting Diaw's contract value next year from this years savings is a moot point at best.

The floor is $13.482 million saved.

Realistically, assuming the Jazz sign Fez in both the pre and post scenarios, this floor changes to:

Pre-trade
75.163 guaranteed + 2 + .474 = $77.637. 13 players.

Post-trade
$67.34 guaranteed + 2 = $69.34. 13 players.

($77.637-70.37)(2) + ($2 -$4 LT payout) = $16.534 - $18.534.

The floor is either $13.482 without Fez or it is $16.534 with Fez. Doesn't simple math ****ing suck?


****EDit************
I failed to include the difference between the LT threashold and minimum salaries. This bumps the floor up just over $2 million in both scenarios.

 

[franklin]

The Jazz are in a much better position to move contracts with Diaw's than with AK's contract. Put that into an actuarial table.

 

[franklin]

The Jazz are over any likely cap next year with or without Diaw or AK. They are in the same spot in needing to sign minimum wage guys next year whether they make this trade or not.
Diaw + the MLE = tradeable asset. AK + MLE = Not a good spot, and will likely waste that MLE.

 

[Shaggy]

Suited, or unsuited?

How dare you crack a joke while SKA is making a serious argument, have manners man. sheesh!

 

[NUMBERICA]

They are in the same spot in needing to sign minimum wage guys next year whether they make this trade or not.
Diaw + the MLE = tradeable asset. AK + MLE = Not a good spot, and will likely waste that MLE.

... What?

 

[Lion's Roar]

The Jazz are over any likely cap next year with or without Diaw or AK. They are in the same spot in needing to sign minimum wage guys next year whether they make this trade or not.
Diaw + the MLE = tradeable asset. AK + MLE = Not a good spot, and will likely waste that MLE.

Really? So let's see...

With Diaw:

8 players $68M in salary. 5 players to the min 13 and about $2.5M to spend on those 5 players to be bellow the $70.3M LT level for this year (used for simplification). That's about 500K per player.

With AK:

$58.8M for 7 players. 6 players to 13. about $11.5M to spend. Avg per player $1.9M. That leaves space for a couple of veterans and an actual draft pick.

 

[Lion's Roar]

The Jazz are in a much better position to move contracts with Diaw's than with AK's contract. Put that into an actuarial table.

That's debatabele at best. That contract next year with the new CBA can be pure poison. What if a har cap is set? Smart GM's will hold off on taking money garanteed for next year.

 

[BabyPeterzz]

But I thought the Millers had committed to spending and paying the tax this season? I could have sworn that's what people said. Surely they didn't wake up yesterday and realize "oh my god, we're paying the luxury tax, cut costs immediately!"

What a difference a month makes:

https://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/jazz/50024290-87/million-jazz-miller-tax.html.csp





So does this mean that Greg doesn't think we're going to be very competitive? I'm sure that he led off all season ticket holder advertisements with that information.

Listen poopbutt, paying the LT is probably going to happen regardless of whether we trade AK or not. But the current LT hit is just ridiculous.

YOU are the one that's drunk.

 

[InGameStrategy]

Because the Jazz can hold 17 players huh.

Maybe you should check your math before acting like a hard *** and telling everyone you're a professional at this. Not only did you add in an extra million in all 4 caclulations, you didn't account for getting two players back for one. This changes the scenario enough to render your entire analysis useless.

Using your numbers put into a 21st century calculator:

Pre-trade
75.163 guaranteed + 2 x .474 = $76.111. This is the minimum the Jazz can pay this year with 13 players.

Post-trade
$67.34 guaranteed + .474 = $67.814. This is the minimum the Jazz can pay post-trade with 13 players.

($76.111-70.37)(2) + ($2 -$4 LT payout) = $13.482 - $15.482.

This is not a publicly traded company and doing books like it is makes no sense. The Jazz are most likely to make a move next year anyway, so subtracting Diaw's contract value next year from this years savings is a moot point at best.

The floor is $13.482 million saved.

Realistically, assuming the Jazz sign Fez in both the pre and post scenarios, this floor changes to:

Pre-trade
75.163 guaranteed + 2 + .474 = $77.637. 13 players.

Post-trade
$67.34 guaranteed + 2 = $69.34. 13 players.

($77.637-70.37)(2) + ($2 -$4 LT payout) = $16.534 - $18.534.

The floor is either $13.482 without Fez or it is $16.534 with Fez. Doesn't simple math ****ing suck?


****EDit************
I failed to include the difference between the LT threashold and minimum salaries. This bumps the floor up just over $2 million in both scenarios.

Yes, math does "****ing suck," because a $9 million salary next year isn't conveniently booted or mooted away as you suggest.

And what "move" do you suggest that the Jazz would make with the second year of Diaw's deal--a shimmy-shimmy? The macarena? If they traded it away, chances are that they would get near the same dollar amount in return, especially given that Diaw isn't a marquee player. ("Marquee" is French, btw. So is "Diaw")

Or are you suggesting that the Jazz would make a move if Diaw wasn't here? If it means dipping into LT territory, they'd likely avoid it, and they definitely wouldn't spend upwards of eight figures on a backup big, although they did for Memo, who should be a backup. So the second year of Diaw's deal can't just be handwaved away. Add back a minimum contract if you want--or an MLE deal at most--because it is arguable that Diaw would fill a required roster spot for next year.

So, using your numbers, with Fes, the floor is $16.5 - $9 million = $7.5 million.

Do you wanna apply a discounted cash flow model to it, too :roll:?

Silly debate in any case, because a floor of five million or six million is plenty for a small-market and/or only semi-contending team to pull the trigger.

Any funny money up to 18 or 20 is only Greg gravy.

 

[ekimebirt]

I don't think Diaw is so much the issue, more so that the LT needs to be addressed this year, and AK is most likely the solution.

Because LT is calculated on an annual basis and there are many variables. If the Jazz can save/earn between 15 and 20 mill this year, that is guaranteed $. Then next year they can make necessary adjustments based on the circumstance at the time. Woest case they save approx 10 mill in the procsss. Memo will be expiring, Diaw would be expiring etc etc. There are constantly moves and you have to evaluate short term and long term and make a balance. I would say that Diaw is equal to or better than AK when AK is struggling and about 75 to 80% of AK when AK is good. For the amount of savings that seems worth while to me.

 

[NUMBERICA]

There are a lot of posts to sort through, so I'll just state again that Diaw is not even close to AK in pure production or how their teams perform with them on the floor. Diaw's +/- have NEVER been good and his PER has consistently been 5 points below AK's. Both of those stats isolated have their flaws, but combined, you really can't beat them and they CLEARLY show that AK is just in a different tier in how he contributes to winning.

Diaw is hardly half the player AK is and his contract going into the next year is an absolute killer and very, very likely pushes the Jazz back over some sort of penalizing threshold. If Diaw was an actual, legit player at a position of need or his deal was expiring, then the situation changes completely. What's been proposed is moving salary whose net savings is less than the Maynor/Hapring deal for a player that doesn't even crack the rotation on a healthy team. Not a wise move considering the high likelihood that it costs the teams games and the goodwill of fans (with brains).

If the next CBA moves to a hard cap, there will likely be something like an Allan Houston Provision* and in that situation, the Jazz would likely buyout Diaw at full-price just to get rid of his cap figure, which would be a pure $9 loss in order to get the cap situation to where it would be if they hadn't traded AK. If there was a hard cap, it also increases the chances the Jazz will be able to retain AK at a ridiculously cheap price in contrast to losing $9 million or more for a player that's simply not needed.

The bottom line is this is nowhere near a home-run and could end up being an across the board net negative.

*I'm kind of talking out of my *** on this detail as I can't jump around sites and check since I'm on a dinosaur smart phone.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Because LT is calculated on an annual basis and there are many variables. If the Jazz can save/earn between 15 and 20 mill this year, that is guaranteed $. Then next year they can make necessary adjustments based on the circumstance at the time. Woest case they save approx 10 mill in the procsss. Memo will be expiring, Diaw would be expiring etc etc. There are constantly moves and you have to evaluate short term and long term and make a balance. I would say that Diaw is equal to or better than AK when AK is struggling and about 75 to 80% of AK when AK is good. For the amount of savings that seems worth while to me.

Even if Diaw is 80% the player AK is, which is laughable, he plays a position of no need of - PF. Knowing that, its basically a salary dump, except the Jazz get a 9 million dollar present this year and next! With Diaw handicapping us next year, we probably miss the playoffs 2 straight years resulting in Deron bolting after 2012. That is a nightmare scenario and hardly worth saving $16 million. Trading AK = rebuilding. Might as well trade Deron right now when we can get still alot of good prospects for him.

 

[BabyPeterzz]

Ok, so we don't trade for Diaw. Do we gamble and hope we get a better deal come the deadline, when we're desperate to get closer to the LT threshold? I have a feeling Jazz fans are going to kick themselves we didn't get this done. At least with this dump we're getting someone serviceable (I know, even that's a stretch).

We could trade CJ and Price, that would get us closer, and make us worse. We could trade Millsap too! Memo's worthless this year, he's not going anywhere.

Or keep the current team and cripple the franchise. What's it going to be folks?

 

[NUMBERICA]

That's a bit of a stretch, but AK is an important player even if it's not clear how exactly.

 

[Sneakers]

I'm really enjoying having someone that put in the work and having an intellect superior to mine say what's been bouncing around my head about this whole thing.

But... I still have absolutely no understanding why we're not supposed to count Diaw's salary for next year. I haven't heard an argument for it that can't also be used for going to a place like Check City. AKA stupid as ****.

Don't be so dense. Because we're talking about this year. What if he's traded before next season's salary kicks in? Who is to say that otherwise we wouldn't sign someone to that much (like resigning AK) once AK's contract expires? Its not relevant to the discussion of this year's savings. I don't know why you're acting like that is the hardest thing to get. I know you're still not going to get it even after this, but I just felt the need to say something to you.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Thanks. Tomorrow does not exist. Sound.

 

[Lion's Roar]

It's not that Numberica. You can't consider future salary cause the Jazz maymake a trade and move Diaw. Then the trade is Ak for zilch which makes even more sense....right??? WRONG ppl. WRONG.

 

[sirkickyass]

Actually Elson, Watson and Ross would only count for $854.389 each because the NBA veterans that sign for the minimum only count as two year veterans against the cap and the NBA reimburses the team for that amount or for the difference between that number and thei actual salary (can't remember wich).

The Jazz could sign Diaw, Ross, Fesenko (QO), Elson, Watson, Ryan Thompson and Jeremy Evans and still be some 800K bellow the LT for this year with the max 15 players under contract. Salary numbers from Shamsports.

That's a good point. While that gives us more breathing room post-trade for the pay-out it actually ensures that we save another approx. $3 million less than Locke is advertising because it reduces the amount that we're presently over the tax.

One more reason that number is fantasy accounting.

 

[TheSilencer1313]

Did you recently awake from a 6 year coma?

And your point is??

 

[TheSilencer1313]

The whole point is......
If the Jazz unload AK's contract after they've already paid out for 85 percent of it, just to save some money for one year.
They are pulling the typical Miller non-commitment to trying to win a championship.
The usual other teams get better, while we get weaker in wussy Diaw.