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The Debates

I'm calling it now. The general election is close in popular vote but Romney takes the E-College by a landslide.

I doubt that.

Curent polling has it basically tied in FL, VA and CO. Romney is ahead in N.C. and MO. Obmama is ahead in IA, NV and OH. Polls have those 3 moving towards Romney as well. Current polls show both Michigan and Pennsylvania within the margin of error. If Romney wins all those states that brings a victory by a 323-215.

Romney is not going to win all of those states. He was a legit chance of winning the election but he won't win by a landslide.
 
I doubt that.

Curent polling has it basically tied in FL, VA and CO. Romney is ahead in N.C. and MO. Obmama is ahead in IA, NV and OH. Polls have those 3 moving towards Romney as well. Current polls show both Michigan and Pennsylvania within the margin of error. If Romney wins all those states that brings a victory by a 323-215.

Romney is not going to win all of those states. He was a legit chance of winning the election but he won't win by a landslide.

Granted, this is one source but it regarded as one of the more fair an accurate.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...dministration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Barring any major gaffes during the upcoming debates, and if Romney performs at least as well, I don't see why he wouldn't continue down this path unless Obama decrees by executive order that pot is now legal... then Mitt is hosed.
 
Bizarre mixed bag numbers:

09chart_silver-blog480.jpg
 
Barring any major gaffes during the upcoming debates, and if Romney performs at least as well, I don't see why he wouldn't continue down this path unless Obama decrees by executive order that pot is now legal... then Mitt is hosed.

Do you think there are any diminishing returns problems with expecting a uniform trend line from here until Nov. 6th?
 
Do you think there are any diminishing returns problems with expecting a uniform trend line from here until Nov. 6th?

The polls have been very fluid and I admit that to continue uniformly in favor of Mitt is unrealistic. Even with Mitt's gains he's only leading by a percentage point or two at most. That certainly falls within the margin of error.
 
Granted, this is one source but it regarded as one of the more fair an accurate.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...dministration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll



Barring any major gaffes during the upcoming debates, and if Romney performs at least as well, I don't see why he wouldn't continue down this path unless Obama decrees by executive order that pot is now legal... then Mitt is hosed.

My figures came from RealClearPolitics Scat. They use Rasmussen as one of their sources for polling data.
 
Romney is going to crush Obama on Chinese trade and show Michigan why he's the best guy for detroit. At the same time, he gets to explain how Obama bailed out Detroit while turning his back on their union brothers in Delaware, Wisconsin, & Pennsylvania. Picking winners is great if you are one of them. The coal industry in Pennsylvania & Virginias aren't on the winners list.

Mitt gets to offer industry the only thing govt. can that doesn't cost a thing--a little freedom & protection from Chinese parasitism. "My policies will result in billions of new tax dollars for these states. You folks get to decide how to best spend it."
 
I think the debate changed this game more than normal.

Romney won by the largest margin ever recorded in a presidential debate. It dramatically changed the way people see Romney and Obama. If that continues (the current view people have of the candidates) in the next two debates (and the VP debate to a lesser extent) than Romney wins this. If not than Obama wins.
 
Romney is going to crush Obama on Chinese trade and show Michigan why he's the best guy for detroit. At the same time, he gets to explain how Obama bailed out Detroit while turning his back on their union brothers in Delaware, Wisconsin, & Pennsylvania. Picking winners is great if you are one of them. The coal industry in Pennsylvania & Virginias aren't on the winners list.

Mitt gets to offer industry the only thing govt. can that doesn't cost a thing--a little freedom & protection from Chinese parasitism. "My policies will result in billions of new tax dollars for these states. You folks get to decide how to best spend it."

Damn, I liked reading this. Will try to rep.
 
The quote was hypothetical. Sorry if I was misleading.

Been reading Ohio papers today and commenters are going for Obamas jugular over coal. Union leadership saying they won't support the democrat for the first time ever. Members saying they'll pull the Romney lever. Romney needs to promise strict safety controls for miners & propose some new power plant scheme to lock up these states. Another hypothetical line: One thing I learned in business is stronger demand translates into higher labor wages. My opponent seems to think he'll get you a raise by destroying your industry and strapping you medical benefits with his Cadillac tax.
 
The quote was hypothetical. Sorry if I was misleading.

Been reading Ohio papers today and commenters are going for Obamas jugular over coal. Union leadership saying they won't support the democrat for the first time ever. Members saying they'll pull the Romney lever. Romney needs to promise strict safety controls for miners & propose some new power plant scheme to lock up these states. Another hypothetical line: One thing I learned in business is stronger demand translates into higher labor wages. My opponent seems to think he'll get you a raise by destroying your industry and strapping you medical benefits with his Cadillac tax.

What I want to know is why you do not work for political campaigns as a speech writer/debate guy?
 
I'm guessing because he's only good for the 2-3 hours a day that he's sober.

Seeing as the campaigns exist for "moments", I think a couple hours a day of giving scripted moments will keep them in healthy supply.
 
The S&S Flatery Express! Truth is these campaigns are twenty years ahead of us all. It would be fun to play Karl Rove for a day though.
 
How about as people we demand that these debates are fact checked, on air, at the same time, each one of these *** clowns makes a claim. Every debate between any two potential, or already poloticians, is filled with both calling each other a liar.

Well.... why dont we just find out as it goes along? Its important enough to know the truth right? Who cares how long it would take. Im also tired of people just dismissing this as politics as usual. You get what you deserve when you think like that. And you are also hurting everyone else.

Im sick and tired of these politicians lying through their teeth every time they speak. And you should be to.
 
Some of the statements that are made are too complicated to call a lie. I'm being serious.
You can twist data, projections, and cause/effect however you please. There's almost always more than one answer.
 
How about as people we demand that these debates are fact checked, on air, at the same time, each one of these *** clowns makes a claim. Every debate between any two potential, or already poloticians, is filled with both calling each other a liar.

Well.... why dont we just find out as it goes along? Its important enough to know the truth right? Who cares how long it would take. Im also tired of people just dismissing this as politics as usual. You get what you deserve when you think like that. And you are also hurting everyone else.

Im sick and tired of these politicians lying through their teeth every time they speak. And you should be to.

Great idea in theory. Extrememly impractical in practice. That would do away with debates entirely. It would make them way to lengthy and cumbersome.

One a related note:

https://realclearpolitics.com/

Romney has pulled ahead in the national average (+.7), Colorado (+.5), Florida (+.7).

He is strengthining his lead in N.C. (now +3.0) and is narrowing the Obama leads in Ohio ( -.7), Pennsylvania (-6.0), Virginia (-.3), Iowa (-3.2) and Nevada (-3.5).

These are all small leads or deficits and within the margin of error but some of them are the first time Romney has lead such as in Colorado. Romney clearly has the momentum. This has to be a clear warning to Obama that this election is slipping away from him.

The last 10 days have been horrendous for Obama.
 
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