The Lauri Thread

[Handlogten's Heros]

Lauri is playing like he wants Flagg on the team.

In all serious. The back stuff scares me after Favors. It almost all feels too similar.

I'm happy for the current state of the tank, but concerned that this could be a long term thing.

I'm no doctor but I am just not terribly concerned by his performance. He is a guy who gets a lot of assisted baskets and we have so little in the way of setup men. He's had some moments of progress. I see the lift being a little less. If he bulked up he can slim down and take some of that weight off.

I just think he legit should take like 3-4 weeks off. I wouldn't travel either. Travel is a lot of sitting and not sleeping in your own bed. Really make sure the back is fully right. This isn't even a tank thing but why push him (or more likely why let him push himself) if he isn't fully right.

 

[KqWIN]

- His numbers are down this year, are we worried? He doesn't seem to be moving as well this year.

I'm personally not too worried about his performance. The biggest difference is that he cannot finish at the rim this year. That could be related to the back injury, but he was also finishing terribly before the injury. It's so much of an outlier I don't believe it to be true. One unfortunate takeaway, however, is that any hopes of him taking another leap don't seem great. He's the player he was before, which is still very good.

With Lauri we always need to think about his perception around the league. I think he has built enough of a reputation over the previous two seasons that one bad year won't shake it...but this still has some effect on the trade value. As he signed the contract, I got some grief saying that there is a non-zero chance it becomes a regrettable one. While I still think that contract is in good standing, it's probably not as good as it was before. Just making up numbers, but if we thought Lauri was worth 5 picks, he could be worth like 4 now. The longer this struggle continues the more we should worry about him losing value and that contract possibly turning into a negative. Many of the "bad" contracts were seen as good contracts when they were signed.


- How long is he willing to play for a non playoff team?

Only Lauri can answer this, but he seems happy. I know he was unhappy when the FO lied to him about tanking but that doesn't seem to an issue as tanking was more transparent this time.

- How soon are we able to build a playoff team that can eventually compete for a title with Lauri?

If things go extremely well, I see three jumps necessary to get to contention. One to get to play in level, one to get to where you're a consistent playoff team, one to make the leap to contender status. Progress is obviously not linear....but doing so in 3 years would be an extremely good scenario. Each jump gets more difficult than the previous one.

- Does Lauri fit in with our timeline/how has our timeline shifted with the Hendricks injury and Cody being so far behind?

I think Lauri has a ton of years of good basketball left....but the likelihood that we a contender while he's on his current deal and/or still in his prime are low and dropping by the day. The fact that Kessler is the only sure thing amongst young players has slowed us down quite a bit.

- What is Lauri's trade value? How does that change in the off season?

I still think the Bridges trade value is still a good reference point. On one hand, I think his value should have increased now that he's locked in, but on the other hand his play has dropped. I'm just going to call that a wash and say that we should expect similar level of offers as last summer.

- How does the 2026 draft impact the decision to trade Lauri?

If we are very confident in our draft pick I think it becomes more reasonable to do some sort of quick rebuild/chase the playoffs. I think this could be DA's preferred route as he has tried and failed in the past, but probably not practical.

- How does our pick owed to OKC with top 8 protection impact our decision to trade Lauri?

If the stars aren't aligning, we are going to tank next year. I think that is true with or without the protected pick, but it makes tanking even more likely.

Bottom Line: Should we look to trade Lauri this coming off season?

It's not a "we have to trade him", but yes.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I'm no doctor but I am just not terribly concerned by his performance. He is a guy who gets a lot of assisted baskets and we have so little in the way of setup men. He's had some moments of progress. I see the lift being a little less. If he bulked up he can slim down and take some of that weight off.

I just think he legit should take like 3-4 weeks off. I wouldn't travel either. Travel is a lot of sitting and not sleeping in your own bed. Really make sure the back is fully right. This isn't even a tank thing but why push him (or more likely why let him push himself) if he isn't fully right.

Yeah, I have no idea. I just hear that with back stuff sometimes it never goes away, like he could rest and it feels better, but will flair up again at some point no matter what.

Like I said, I have Favors on the mind. My memory is that he just slept on a bad mattress and then a few years later we owe a pick to OKC to get off his contract.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I have no idea. I just hear that with back stuff sometimes it never goes away, like he could rest and it feels better, but will flair up again at some point no matter what.

Like I said, I have Favors on the mind. My memory is that he just slept on a bad mattress and then a few years later we owe a pick to OKC to get off his contract.

Yeah I get that. Its a scary area to have issues with. I've had some issues with back spasms off and on. I am sure there are some things he can do to help remedy/prevent the issues. If there is something in there with the disc or some other damage I'd be pretty concerned as those seem like managed conditions.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

The major question mark that will inform how this goes is how much rope Ryan Smith allows Ainge and Will Hardy to have if we don't get a top two pick.

His ownership has been a catastrophe that saw him blow up a #1 seed to trade away two Hall of Famers in their 20s with long term contracts for three years of intentional losing with so far zero high level prospects in return.

At some point Ainge has to find a star in the draft or I can't see how he survives this. Will Hardy has to eventually get his team to play hard or I don't see how he survives this.

If we end up getting like the 4th pick and Lauri has no trade value next offseason, I could see Ainge panic trading the pick to try to be a play-in team.

Ainge passed the point of Lauri's peak value (deadline 2024) with the idea that he could put stars around Lauri and it... It's getting much harder to see how that happens or how he survives if he keeps being wrong.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Lauri already has more games this year with less than 15pts than he did all of last year. He already has 7 games with less than 15pts this year and only 6 all of last year.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Lauri already has more games this year with less than 15pts than he did all of last year. He already has 7 games with less than 15pts this year and only 6 all of last year.

that's kinda crazy.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The major question mark that will inform how this goes is how much rope Ryan Smith allows Ainge and Will Hardy to have if we don't get a top two pick.

His ownership has been a catastrophe that saw him blow up a #1 seed to trade away two Hall of Famers in their 20s with long term contracts for three years of intentional losing with so far zero high level prospects in return.

At some point Ainge has to find a star in the draft or I can't see how he survives this. Will Hardy has to eventually get his team to play hard or I don't see how he survives this.

If we end up getting like the 4th pick and Lauri has no trade value next offseason, I could see Ainge panic trading the pick to try to be a play-in team.

Ainge passed the point of Lauri's peak value (deadline 2024) with the idea that he could put stars around Lauri and it... It's getting much harder to see how that happens or how he survives if he keeps being wrong.

I get the impression that Ryan Smith trusts Ainge explicitly. It feels more likely that Ainge decides to give up on the team than Ryan gives up on Ainge. At least that's the impression that I have.

 

[homeytennis]

I get the impression that Ryan Smith trusts Ainge explicitly. It feels more likely that Ainge decides to give up on the team than Ryan gives up on Ainge. At least that's the impression that I have.

Some of it might be what is Ryan Smith's business plan? If the Jazz are still selling tickets Smith might care about the team
s W-L record.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

I get the impression that Ryan Smith trusts Ainge explicitly. It feels more likely that Ainge decides to give up on the team than Ryan gives up on Ainge. At least that's the impression that I have.

I mean, but how many years can Ainge just strike out and fail at his explicit goals while putting together a team intentionally trying to lose games before that trust is shaken?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I mean, but how many years can Ainge just strike out and fail at his explicit goals while putting together a team intentionally trying to lose games before that trust is shaken?

Yeah. Also – at what point does the Utah media start asking these questions? It's been crickets so far.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Yeah I get that. Its a scary area to have issues with. I've had some issues with back spasms off and on. I am sure there are some things he can do to help remedy/prevent the issues.

Whatever it is, you never like to see a 7 footer rub their lower back in games, suddenly turn into an under the rim player and need "management". Not at 27 years of age.

 

[KqWIN]

I mean, but how many years can Ainge just strike out and fail at his explicit goals while putting together a team intentionally trying to lose games before that trust is shaken?

I try not to take anything said at press conferences too seriously, but it actually upset me that he is so smug + loud and proud about his failed plans. Like even if he's lying, why should we celebrate him failing? If the plan was what was reported, it would have been catastrophic if he had succeeded.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Here's another Lauri related question, at least in my opinion. Should we continue to target super young guys with our later picks this year or should we target guys who might theoretically be more ready to contribute right away?

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Here's another Lauri related question, at least in my opinion. Should we continue to target super young guys with our later picks this year or should we target guys who might theoretically be more ready to contribute right away?

There's no one in the top 10 that is ready right now. All of them are projects.

I think Flagg and Harper are great prospects, but they're very raw and years away.

Oh, later picks, misread.

Ehhhh, those picks are going to get traded, we already have 7 players on rookie contracts.

 

[outerspacefan]

The major question mark that will inform how this goes is how much rope Ryan Smith allows Ainge and Will Hardy to have if we don't get a top two pick.

His ownership has been a catastrophe that saw him blow up a #1 seed to trade away two Hall of Famers in their 20s with long term contracts for three years of intentional losing with so far zero high level prospects in return.

At some point Ainge has to find a star in the draft or I can't see how he survives this. Will Hardy has to eventually get his team to play hard or I don't see how he survives this.

If we end up getting like the 4th pick and Lauri has no trade value next offseason, I could see Ainge panic trading the pick to try to be a play-in team.

Ainge passed the point of Lauri's peak value (deadline 2024) with the idea that he could put stars around Lauri and it... It's getting much harder to see how that happens or how he survives if he keeps being wrong.

Hard to argue with any of this at this point.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Ehhhh, those picks are going to get traded, we already have 7 players on rookie contracts.

Possibly, but for what?

Which brings up another good Lauri question though. How does keeping or trading Lauri this summer impact our likelihood of keeping all of our picks?

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Possibly, but for what?

Which brings up another good Lauri question though. How does keeping or trading Lauri this summer impact our likelihood of keeping all of our picks?

This is a good question.

Ainge and the Jazz said over and over again before the last two drafts that they didn't want to draft three rookies only to... draft three rookies.

But they just literally can't do that again this year.

So I would guess these late firsts get traded for like multiple mid seconds in future years.

 

[Tanktastic]

Possibly, but for what?

Well, the Cavs picks currently looks almost like early 2nds, so nothing of consequence.

The pick hauls immediately after trades always look fantastic, but some turn into garbage and it's quite rare to actually get the super value.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Umm, we're talking about a guy who insisted on playing injured for a team that was desperately trying to lose to improve its draft positioning over the final stretch of a season.

Yeah... I don't think so.

In fact, you could almost say that Lauri is known for playing hard and destroying his body even when it doesn't necessarily make much sense. Employee of the Month syndrome. I'm pretty sure he has the most miles on his legs out of all true NBA 7 footers who've played as long as him.

I don't need Lauri to play reckless around the rim or posterize people, but he's just not moving at all like a guy who has a healthy lower back. He's very stiff, upright, robotic and groundbound – and that's how you play when you're trying to protect your back and avoid unpredictable movements. It's not necessarily an injury per se, but nagging long-term wear and tear that's bothering him more and more.

IMO he's carrying too much weight too.

Sadly I have to agree with this guy. This was always my mentality back in the day when I played sports. Some only have one speed.