The Millsap dilemma

[zman1527]

I flipped the pancake before responding.

I'm not about to underrate Sap's remarkable ability to grow. I also can't overlook 17.3 and 7.6, and all the games Sap won. Anyone who wants to trade a Sap because Jazz are heavy at the spot aren't looking at 17 points per game. Those #'s are no a stroll in Central Park or a Saturday in Charlie's factory. That's real production and it won't be easily replaced--definitely not by one guy alone. How many 17 ppg players were dealt during last season? You don't give these guys away for a reason.

No matter which way I turn him I just don't see Sap as a consistent problem causer right out of the gate. He's a hell of a sixth man and that's where I want to see him.

Sixth man, absolutely. Only that is not what Ty and Sap are talking about. So the debate continues: do the Jazz do the smart and obvious thing or do they try to make that square peg they like so much fit into the round hole that they have?

To me, he needs to be the 6th man, end of story. If that causes a morale problem for him, trade him for a SF.

 

[GVC]

Advantages
Rebounding. = or favor Jefferson.
post offense. Jefferson
mid range game. Millsap
Post defense. Jefferson
Help defense. =
Defensive rotation. Millsap

Is this a joke?

Face up game (incl. off the dribble): Millsap
Team offense: Millsap (in a landslide)
Passing: Millsap (in a landslide)
Transition O: Millsap (in a landslide)
Transition D: Millsap (in a landslide)
Competitiveness: Millsap
Physicality: Millsap

And I'm not ready to concede that Big Al is better in the post, since he has absolutely no desire or ability to 1) draw contact or 2) make good passes (the kind that lead to better scoring opportunities). I would think the Jazz get more points per possession (perhaps this data is available at Synergy Sports) giving the ball to Sap in the post than they do giving the ball to Big Al in the post.

Beyond that, since Big Al is clueless in the PnR and from the high post, the effectiveness of the other frontcourt player is going to be nullified when Big Al's fat *** is on the court.

The Jazz are much better off with Millsap playing the 3 than Big Al playing at all, and I'm not against moving Paul Millsap, but find it hard to believe we could find a good enough deal to pull the trigger. Since Big Al is a net negative most of the time he's on the court, if he has any positive trade value, you have to pull the trigger on a trade.

Of course, if he magically changes who he is after 8 years in the league, I'll be here cheering him on, just like I did with Hayward this season (despite being absolutely furious the Jazz drafted him).

 

[Jazz4ever]

Have to jump in here - Millsap's a guy who can use a size advantage to his advantage on the boards, but not in the low-post. I can provide numerous examples, but recently I've seen Sap fail to score on both Gerald Wallace and Wilson Chandler - primarily on the right block. His best move is jab-step then shoot the step-back jumper, which for him is actually more effective against a bigger and slower PF than a SF with the quickness and athleticism to get up and challenge the shot.

IMO he's a PF who can play SF effectively in select matchups - but not the majority of them.

That's interesting because eFG% on inside shots:
Millsap: 68%
Jefferson: 63%

Millsap seems to do quite well scoring in the low post. He attained those numbers vs power forwards so pretty sure he can do it against smaller players, despite your sample size of 2 or 3.

 

[NUMBERICA]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to GVC again."

 

[gregbroncs]

Is this a joke?

Face up game (incl. off the dribble): Millsap
Team offense: Millsap (in a landslide)
Passing: Millsap (in a landslide)
Transition O: Millsap (in a landslide)
Transition D: Millsap (in a landslide)
Competitiveness: Millsap
Physicality: Millsap

And I'm not ready to concede that Big Al is better in the post, since he has absolutely no desire or ability to 1) draw contact or 2) make good passes (the kind that lead to better scoring opportunities). I would think the Jazz get more points per possession (perhaps this data is available at Synergy Sports) giving the ball to Sap in the post than they do giving the ball to Big Al in the post.

Beyond that, since Big Al is clueless in the PnR and from the high post, the effectiveness of the other frontcourt player is going to be nullified when Big Al's fat *** is on the court.

The Jazz are much better off with Millsap playing the 3 than Big Al playing at all, and I'm not against moving Paul Millsap, but find it hard to believe we could find a good enough deal to pull the trigger. Since Big Al is a net negative most of the time he's on the court, if he has any positive trade value, you have to pull the trigger on a trade.

Of course, if he magically changes who he is after 8 years in the league, I'll be here cheering him on, just like I did with Hayward this season (despite being absolutely furious the Jazz drafted him).

I'll concede most of those. And if this was a discussion about a position where those were more significant factors the story would be different.

Face up game. Not as big of factor for PF/C as post game.
Team offense. I don't believe Millsap is any better. You can not run the offense through him on a night to night basis.
Passing. Millsap is a little better only because Jefferson is absolutely pathetic at it.
Transition O: Okay
Transition D: What did Millsap do all year in this category? I don't buy that he's any better.
Competitiveness. I don't buy it.
Physicality: He creates more contact. He also fouls a ton. And is completely over matched against larger PF's.

 

[gregbroncs]

That's interesting because eFG% on inside shots:
Millsap: 68%
Jefferson: 63%

Millsap seems to do quite well scoring in the low post. He attained those numbers vs power forwards so pretty sure he can do it against smaller players, despite your sample size of 2 or 3.

Yes but big al does it against Center's.

 

[GVC]

Yes but big al does it against Center's.

Does what? I don't think you're grasping just how inefficient Big Al is.

 

[DutchJazzer]

I guess I'm not of the opinion that just because he makes twice as much means he needs to be twice as good. He's better, that's enough for me. I don't believe Millsap can be a starter at any position on a team that is a serious contender.

so ur saying boston
rondo, allan pierce millsap garnet lineup aint a contender?
or parker (whoever) ginobli, millsap duncan aint a contender?
or Bibby, wade, Lepunk, millsap, Dampier aint a contender?
or replacing boozer on bulls
or putting sap on orlando?


eat crow

 

[gregbroncs]

so ur saying boston
rondo, allan pierce millsap garnet lineup aint a contender?
or parker (whoever) ginobli, millsap duncan aint a contender?
or Bibby, wade, Lepunk, millsap, Dampier aint a contender?
or replacing boozer on bulls
or putting sap on orlando?


eat crow

Okay if you put any player next to 3 All star quality players they can win. This is not who the Jazz are. So I am wrong in your situation. However replace Millsap with Jefferson in any of those lineups and that team is just as good if not better.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

Okay if you put any player next to 3 All star quality players they can win. This is not who the Jazz are. So I am wrong in your situation. However replace Millsap with Jefferson in any of those lineups and that team is just as good if not better.

You think Jefferson on Orlando makes them better than if they had Millsap?

 

[gregbroncs]

You think Jefferson on Orlando makes them better than if they had Millsap?

Maybe. Jefferson and Howard on the team for offense may be a disaster. Defensively they would be outstanding. With Jefferson defending the post player and Howard for help defense that could be a dominant defensive team. With Millsap they would be better offensively but defensively they would be short.

 

[SojoDave]

I love Sap, but...his trade value may be at an all time high because he is coming off a year as a starter who averaged 17 and 8. If we packaged Sap with one of our first round picks, we may be able to bring in some good value. With three rookies, two lottery picks this year, and two first round picks next year, we have to make some deals or our roster will be too young. As far as Memo is concerned, I think he will make every effort to come back so it will be interesting to see how Ty handles his minutes.