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The off-season strategies (Jazz have limited options)

Joncolton

Joncolton

Well-Known Member
To recap. We have a team that has YET again won 61% of our games and taken a first round exit. Last year the Jazz won 61% of their games and made a first round exit. The year prior (Donovan Mitchell's rookie season) we won 59% of our games and made a 2nd round exit.

The Lakes by comparison, won 73% of their games this season.
Likewise the Raptors last season won 73% of their regular season games.
The GSW meantime won 70% of their regular season games in 2018 when they won the title (with Kevin Durant).

The bottom line is clear - if the Jazz wish to take the NEXT step, and they may have 2 or 3 more steps to take. Regardless, the next step is to become a 70+ win team.
How can they get there? They seem to have a very solid 5 player rotation (Conley-Mitchell-Ingles-Bogdanovic-Gobert) and terrific 6th man (if Jordan Clarkson returns).
And they would seemingly be capable of winning 61% of their games next season, and making the playoffs again perhaps even going to the 2nd round next season!

How do they get better? Internally?

Donovan Mitchell will continue to get better, but how much better can he get? Judging by this playoff shooters info graphic - I'd have to say not much.
Joe Ingles will be the same or worse.
Bogdanovic might get a tad better over the next 1-2 seasons before his eventual decline to age.
Gobert could be better, but judging by his trajectory thus far, I'd bet on more of the same from him (which is still a great thing).
I expect Conley will do the same next season as he did this season - disappoint. He was supposed to be our legit 2nd option at creating his own shot. The guy who could make something happen when Donovan Mitchell is being swarmed and triple teamed. He played better as the season went on, but in game 7, the guy we moved so many assets for and were hoping could take on some of the load went 2-13 from the floor.

The Jazz might run it back with Conley and some extra pieces that have been discussed (draftee, Baynes, etc.) but those pieces (outside of hitting a Donovan Mitchell sized homerun in the draft) are not going to move the needle. The Jazz may need to take a Toronto sized gamble on a player who wins but has a bad rep or seems disgruntled (Kwahi or a Jimmy Butler type), who could move the needle for this franchise. I don't know that there is a specific type of opportunity out there with someone who is disgruntled with their current franchise (maybe Bradley Beal? maybe Chris Paul? Blake Griffin? Jrue Holiday? Frank Ntilikina? Buddy Hield? ) the point being the Jazz are going to have to take a big risk if they want to become one of the 70+ teams in the league.

Are they ready to do it?





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I feel like the ability for this core group to Gel isn't discussed here. I expect that they will improve as a group and how we play together more than individually. That should boost our wins meaningfully.

Does it get us to 70+? Not without a deeper bench and some key contributors on that bench that push starters.
 
we have to look beyond this next season. getting rid of our 30yr+ players in exchange for young players would be the ideal strategy. We ain't winning the title next season. I doubt we even make it to the playoffs with splash brother coming back for GSW and young teams like PHO and MIN keeps getting better as we get worse. our timeline with Rudy is seemingly over. We have to work out a new timeline around DM now. Conley/Ingles/Bojan will be nothing more than just borderline NBA players on their way to retirement by 2022 as DM enters his prime. Let Rudy go next summer and rebuild a team around DM could also be a real option.
 
Jazz need to improve their bench. Not just a little but a lot. If they could up grade either their SF/PF starting position and vastly improve their bench. I think they can take the next step. Remember the Jazz were without their second best scorer in the playoffs. The jazz need to get more athletic and have some scoring off the bench and better defenders. Players like Bradley and Niang are regular season players but were exposed in the playoffs with their lack of athleticism. Jazz need more athletic big man who can rebound and make a shot when needed. In the Denver series the Jazz got killed on the offensive boards and their lack of size was exposed for any one to see. I am hoping that the Jazz can retain Clarkson, move Ingles and Royce to the bench and not have to play either Bradley or Niang except for mop up minutes.
 
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Great points Jom, I have one small difference though - Given Donovan's performance in these playoffs I'd say the time is RIGHT NOW.
 
UtahJazz32 said:
We have no options because dumbass DL and his hard on for the has been Conley F DL
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I'm not sure if that's true. We might not have Bogdanovic without the Conley trade (presumably based off his statements) but furthermore, I'd wager Mike Conley can fetch more on the trade market than Favors and Grayson Allen could have, or even Jae Crowder (and he'd only be tradeable assuming the Jazz had signed him to an extension this year).
 
Joncolton said:
Great points Jom, I have one small difference though - Given Donovan's performance in these playoffs I'd say the time is RIGHT NOW.
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we have players that are otherwise end of bench options on other teams currently playing major rotation minutes. DM needs a historical 36ppg performance that is very unlikely to be repeated but it's still not enough to push us past the first round against a Denver team that's missing two of their best players. To challenge for the title, DM isn't the problem, but what we have around him is.
 
Joncolton said:
I'm not sure if that's true. We might not have Bogdanovic without the Conley trade (presumably based off his statements) but furthermore, I'd wager Mike Conley can fetch more on the trade market than Favors and Grayson Allen could have, or even Jae Crowder (and he'd only be tradeable assuming the Jazz had signed him to an extension this year).
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i have no problem if we don't get to sign Bojan. He's a stud but doesn't quite fit DM's timeline either. He's on a yr-by-yr increasing contract so his highest paying year will also happen to be his 34-yr-old season. And we all know how good most 34-yr-old players are in this league. I genuinely won't be surprised that he becomes nearly unplayable by then and we'd have to give away assets to dump his contract.

He's a good scorer but more of a sixth man microwave material due to his lack of contribution on all other aspects of the game. And we have JC who's already filling such role. He's a forward but doesn't play much like one. He can't rebound nor defend. He has a 111 ortg vs 113 drtg. The fact that fans see him as our third best player further proves the fact that we ain't winning anything with this current squad.

www.basketball-reference.com

Bojan Bogdanović Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Bojan Bogdanović. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, shoots, school and more on Basketball-Reference.com
www.basketball-reference.com www.basketball-reference.com
 
I feel like the Jazz are one player away from being a 70+ win team, and it doesn't have to be AD, Lebron or Steph.

Imagine if they had signed Jimmy Butler instead of Mike Conley (obviously their only window was when he was with Minnesotta - and they SHOULD have traded Gordon Hayward for him - but I digress).

Gobert - Bogdanovic - Butler - O'Neale - Donovan

That would have taken care of our defensive problems, rebounding issues, toughness and offense. I'm not saying that we should go try and trade for JB, I'm just saying the next big move they make - they need to get it exactly right.
 
Joncolton said:
I feel like the Jazz are one player away from being a 70+ win team, and it doesn't have to be AD, Lebron or Steph.

Imagine if they had signed Jimmy Butler instead of Mike Conley (obviously their only window was when he was with Minnesotta - and they SHOULD have traded Gordon Hayward for him - but I digress).

Gobert - Bogdanovic - Butler - O'Neale - Donovan

That would have taken care of our defensive problems, rebounding issues, toughness and offense. I'm not saying that we should go try and trade for JB, I'm just saying the next big move they make - they need to get it exactly right.
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Not even JB. A guy like Josh Richardson or even Shake Milton would help out a ton. We need 3D players that are 6'6 and more who can simply make DM the smallest guy on the floor. Have him focus 100% on offense and let his teammates take care of the rest.
 
jom2003 said:
Not even JB. A guy like Josh Richardson or even Shake Milton would help out a ton. We need 3D players that are 6'6 and more who can simply make DM the smallest guy on the floor. Have him focus 100% on offense and let his teammates take care of the rest.
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Good points. I wonder what the Jazz front office thinks about Jrue Holiday. Rumor is the Pels don't think they need him. Dell Demps drafted him so that could facilitate things.
 
Good thread @Joncolton

I think our offseason takes one of two directions:

Same Path which is likely - we try to keep Clarkson, we try to trade Ed Davis, maybe move around in the draft, and we try to get the best possible player with the MLE all while staying under the luxury. If we knock it out of the park with the MLE signing (and no, that's not Favors), maybe we get some of that Toronto fortune and contend because everything aligns perfectly in our favor. This isn't going to happen, but that's the pipedream our FO might be thinking.

Change Course which is unlikely - maybe we trade Rudy because we can't come to terms on a long term extension. Maybe we trade Conley because money is an issue due to COVID or we realize he's not as essential due to Don's emergence. Maybe we realize that the current roster is on the cusp of being extremely old and we need to trade some while they have any value at all.

If we went in a different direction, there are many options. Overall, I think the Lakers, Clippers and Warriors represent the west contenders. Denver is also better equipped for the present and future. We can't surpass the Lakers, Clippers or Warriors without amazing fortune. I think we need change unless we know without a doubt we can compete in the next two years without needing perfect luck. It concerns me that Don is our only great piece under the age of 28. Every relevant playoff team this year has leaned on young talent to win games. The Lakers maybe not as much as Denver, Boston, Miami and others, but they have two absolute super stars. We don't. We need more good youth.
 
Joncolton said:
I'm not sure if that's true. We might not have Bogdanovic without the Conley trade (presumably based off his statements) but furthermore, I'd wager Mike Conley can fetch more on the trade market than Favors and Grayson Allen could have, or even Jae Crowder (and he'd only be tradeable assuming the Jazz had signed him to an extension this year).
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The Bojan Conley connection is a myth
 
UtahJazz32 said:
The Bojan Conley connection is a myth
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There were experts that called the Bojan deal a pretty big overpay. We offered the most money and were a solid location.
 
We don't have a ton of options... at least options we will consider. If we could find that rangey PF that can space the floor and is a difference maker defensively then you move Royce or Bojan to the bench and I think we are in the running. In FA and trade those guys are rare and command a premium unless you find an absolute diamond in the rough.

We really need to hit a solid double or HR with a pick in this draft. Or we need Brantley/Oni/Morgan to be the absolute ceiling of the players some think they can... and we need them to get there fast.

The guys we get with the MLE or in some re-arrange the deck chairs type trades will likely not make a monumental difference. They will help but we likely still run into an issue when facing the best in the West.

So my opinion is unless we really hit on a pick or young player... we likely are just a slightly different/better version of the team we saw this year. A very good team but not quite enough to make it to the finals.
 
Joncolton said:
I feel like the Jazz are one player away from being a 70+ win team, and it doesn't have to be AD, Lebron or Steph.

Imagine if they had signed Jimmy Butler instead of Mike Conley (obviously their only window was when he was with Minnesotta - and they SHOULD have traded Gordon Hayward for him - but I digress).

Gobert - Bogdanovic - Butler - O'Neale - Donovan

That would have taken care of our defensive problems, rebounding issues, toughness and offense. I'm not saying that we should go try and trade for JB, I'm just saying the next big move they make - they need to get it exactly right.
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This is what the Jazz need to get to the next level -- a dynamic, 2-way, triple-threat wing to play between Donovan and Rudy. It could have been Gordon Hayward, but yeah, a Jimmy Butler would work.
 
If the Jazz wanted to roll the dice, they could move Gobert in a deal that brings back James Wiseman plus a dynamic wing. This would set the timeline back two years, but it would give the Jazz another solid rim roller/ rim protector, plus open up cap space. The idea is that a quality FA would want to team up with Donovan and Wiseman in a year or two.
 
Catchall said:
If the Jazz wanted to roll the dice, they could move Gobert in a deal that brings back James Wiseman plus a dynamic wing. This would set the timeline back two years, but it would give the Jazz another solid rim roller/ rim protector, plus open up cap space. The idea is that a quality FA would want to team up with Donovan and Wiseman in a year or two.
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We have a better chance of winning a title with this line of thinking than what we currently have.

Hypothetically, we could trade Rudy for Wiseman and Wiggins then trade Conley for Horford, Thybulle and picks. We stock up on young talent and picks around Don, Wiseman, Thybulle, Joe, Royce and even Bojan. It's not super exciting to fight for the playoffs, but I bet we could make the playoffs. In a few years, we become a power without having to worry about Steph Curry, LeBron James, James Harden, Kawhi, etc.
 
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