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The real lottery standings

NUMBERICA said:
Mike Brown is terrible. His history with the Cavs organization alone illustrates how clueless they are. They fired him apparently just because (or because they thought it would make Lebron happy) and had no backup plan (Byron ****ing Scott???????????), then they re-hire him just because (or because they thought that his tour of failure would somehow be more appealing to a more knowledgeable Lebron). That's saying nothing of their ****ing bizarre high draft picks of the last few years.
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I was wondering wtf was going on in Cleveland too. I thought I was just missing something with the Mike Brown rehire and how that was going to lure Lebron back.

They keep talking over there like they have a chance to get Lebron back. I dont think there is a chance in hell he goes back
 
Hack said:
We dont look so great with all our lottery talent either
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Probly just being hack, but we have two late lottery picks (Hayward is good, Burks not so much) one high lottery pick (Kanter who looks good) and I'm guessing your including Favors who we traded for, and he also looks good.

No comparison to the Cavs who have turned 2 #1 overall picks, a #4 pick, and a #5 pick into, Irving and nothing else of note.


£¥£
 
The Jazz fans say: Hold on a minute there, we are much worse than the expert is saying!! We are outraged that you think the Jazz might be some better than the very worst team. I don't know about you but this just hurts my head. Never had to deal with no damn tanks before.
 
Grandpa Jazz said:
The Jazz fans say: Hold on a minute there, we are much worse than the expert is saying!! We are outraged that you think the Jazz might be some better than the very worst team. I don't know about you but this just hurts my head. Never had to deal with no damn tanks before.
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Hahahaha.

Grandpa dishin out the truth.


£¥£
 
bordelais7 said:
Surprisingly, it does take into account margin of defeat. If you go by pure wins/losses, Sagarin says that the Jazz are by far the worst team. But consider the scores, and they do better. Probably because of some of their early on close games against good teams, and their strength-of-schedule (2nd).
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What if you took the cumulative deficits at the end of each quarter? We all know there are games that finish with a 10 point difference but the games can differ wildly in competitiveness. Sometimes it is close until almost the end and then one team pulls ahead. In other games it is over at half time, the winning team coasts and it winds up looking like a competitive game.

By this method, I think it likely the Jazz would look seriously woeful. They have been way behind early and often. Hard to believe there average deficit is only 11.5.
 
silesian said:
Current record is a weak predictor of draft rank, since it ignores the quality of those wins (opponent strength, road versus home).

Sagarin takes this into account and here is the lottery ranking (worst teams first)

1 Charlotte Bobcats
2 Philadelphia 76ers
3 Sacramento Kings
4 Orlando Magic
5 Phoenix Suns
6 Cleveland Cavaliers
7 Utah Jazz
8 Milwaukee Bucks
9 Boston Celtics
10 Detroit Pistons
11 Washington Wizards
12 Toronto Raptors
13 New Orleans Pelicans
14 Los Angeles Lakers

Compare this to current standings:

1 Utah
2 Washington
3 Milwaukee
4 Sacramento
5 Brooklyn
6 Detroit
7 New York
8 Boston
9 Cleveland
10 Denver
11 New Orleans
12 LA Lakers
13 Memphis
14 Phoenix

Based on Sagarin, expect Utah, Washington, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Detroit, NY, Denver and Memphis to get worse picks than indicated by current standings

Expect Phoenix, Philly, Orlando, Toronto to get better picks than indicated by current standings.

For Jazz fans: don't count your Jabari Parker's before they hatch. (hope I'm wrong, don't kill the messenger please)
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Fortunately, the lottery uses W-L record and not this other stupid ranking.
 
I'm cheered by this news. The Jazz are actually playing better than their record indicates. we probably have some wins on the horizon. How is this a bad thing? I am not a fan of the notion of trying for the worst record.
 
"Stupid" rankings -- or some other stupidiity?

cowhide said:
Fortunately, the lottery uses W-L record and not this other stupid ranking.
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Yep, that is pretty obvious.

Based on responses from other posters, I think others understood the point that Sagarin rankings could be a better predictor or lottery order than the current standings, because current standings do not take into account schedule strength.

For example, do you think the Sixers and Suns will make the playoffs? Do you think the Grizzlies will miss the playoffs?
 
One Brow said:
I'm cheered by this news. The Jazz are actually playing better than their record indicates. we probably have some wins on the horizon. How is this a bad thing? I am not a fan of the notion of trying for the worst record.
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I want the players to play their butts off. Win/loss record is irrelevant to me this year. if we finish 2-80 and they played their butts of then that works for me. if the jazz finish 41-41 and played their butts off I am ok with that as well.
 
One Brow said:
I'm cheered by this news. The Jazz are actually playing better than their record indicates. we probably have some wins on the horizon. How is this a bad thing? I am not a fan of the notion of trying for the worst record.
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I felt this way until the team got off to the start they did. At this point I'd really prefer to get a supposed superstar draft pick then to pick up a handful of feel good wins.

Plus I'm a little vindictive and with Hayward leaving 4yr/40m on the table I either wanted him to show he was worth more or fall on his face. So far he hasn't shown he's worth more, imo, and is in the process of falling on his face. I've wanted to love this guy for the last several years but honestly he hasn't proven jack **** and I'll laugh if a team decides to overpay to steal him away from us.
 
silesian said:
Yep, that is pretty obvious.

Based on responses from other posters, I think others understood the point that Sagarin rankings could be a better predictor or lottery order than the current standings, because current standings do not take into account schedule strength.

For example, do you think the Sixers and Suns will make the playoffs? Do you think the Grizzlies will miss the playoffs?
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Well if they win more games than other teams then Yes? If the Grizzlies don't win more games than no they won't make the playoffs. The West is tough there are going to be a couple of very good teams who are sitting home even if they have a good record. Of course my brain tells me that it is most likely the Sixers and the Suns will not make the playoffs and the Grizzlies will but nothing is certain in life.

It will be interesting to see what the final rankings are? Heck if the Jazz finish with the seventh worse record then I will bow to the wisdom Saragin report. Right now I'll just go with the W-L record since that is what really counts.
 
Wow, those NYC teams are really stinking the joint up, huh? I hadn't looked at any standings this year until I read this topic but I just assumed they were both playing decent ball. Wasn't expecting to see 3-8 from both of them. Turrrrrrrible.
 
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