The Ultimate Best Elite World-Class Jazz Off-Season Guide

[Ron Mexico]

Two ACLs in the same knee before the age of 22 is almost a non-issue to you? K

Yes, athletes recover from that just fine at that age.

I'll training a college soccer girl who just came off her 2nd ACL surgery on the same knee and she is a much better athlete at 21 than she was before at 19. Maybe she would be better of without injuries but she also probably would not have trained properly or worked as hard if not.

I'm sure 7+ years down the road it will be a bigger negative effect but not at this stage. Acls are not that big of deal anymore.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Looking at lineup data on Basketball reference this AM... Rudy has such a huge effect... as does Hood (in the wrong way). He was so bad and ruined like every lineup he was in. Not sure Jabari is as bad as Hood was on defense this year but the data is just damning. We were lucky to get rid of the guy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes, athletes recover from that just fine at that age.

I'll training a college soccer girl who just came off her 2nd ACL surgery on the same knee and she is a much better athlete at 21 than she was before at 19. Maybe she would be better of without injuries but she also probably would not have trained properly or worked as hard if not.

I'm sure 7+ years down the road it will be a bigger negative effect but not at this stage. Acls are not that big of deal anymore.

That's great... I just am not sure he is made for the rigors of the NBA. Carries too much weight imo... he's explosive, but not always fluid.

I also think he gets more than Cy proposed... the number Cy gave for Jerami Grant is laughable... he gets twice that imo.

When evaluating Jabari I would do it assuming he gets 4/80 all fully guaranteed. Too many desperate teams still have space and will absolutely talk themselves into him.

 

[Ron Mexico]

That's great... I just am not sure he is made for the rigors of the NBA. Carries too much weight imo... he's explosive, but not always fluid.

I also think he gets more than Cy proposed... the number Cy gave for Jerami Grant is laughable... he gets twice that imo.

When evaluating Jabari I would do it assuming he gets 4/80 all fully guaranteed. Too many desperate teams still have space and will absolutely talk themselves into him.

I agree that he probably goes for more. There are enough teams that are crap with space willing to take a big risk. That's why I think Exum gets a decent offer as well. But for Jabari 20 million and under is a no brainer for me. There are some risks with him so i am not sure how much higher I would go.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

That's great... I just am not sure he is made for the rigors of the NBA. Carries too much weight imo... he's explosive, but not always fluid.

I also think he gets more than Cy proposed... the number Cy gave for Jerami Grant is laughable... he gets twice that imo.

When evaluating Jabari I would do it assuming he gets 4/80 all fully guaranteed. Too many desperate teams still have space and will absolutely talk themselves into him.

So you think Grant gets the full MLE? Because I did slightly more than the full MLE when I did mine. I could probably give him the full MLE and it wouldnt change much. I think I split the MLE between him and Toliver while giving Curry the bi-annual.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I agree that he probably goes for more. There are enough teams that are crap with space willing to take a big risk. That's why I think Exum gets a decent offer as well. But for Jabari 20 million and under is a no brainer for me. There are some risks with him so i am not sure how much higher I would go.

I think if we are proactive on Dante we can retain him at a reasonable price... though there will surely be Jazzfanz who go crazy at what he gets.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I agree that he probably goes for more. There are enough teams that are crap with space willing to take a big risk. That's why I think Exum gets a decent offer as well. But for Jabari 20 million and under is a no brainer for me. There are some risks with him so i am not sure how much higher I would go.

The most Exum is getting is the MLE. The deal I did for him isnt too far off the MLE, so he wouldnt get much more and the deal I'm giving him let's him bet on himself a bit in that he can opt out of his final year if he succeeds.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So you think Grant gets the full MLE? Because I did slightly more than the full MLE when I did mine. I could probably give him the full MLE and it wouldnt change much. I think I split the MLE between him and Toliver while giving Curry the bi-annual.

I think he gets close to it. I think you gave him half the MLE... if he'd take that I'd give him all 4 years no options. I think he gets close to full MLE. I think we might be able to get him for salary that starts at full MLE and declines by the maximum allowed instead of increases. I think he provides a lot of value as a guy that can play with Gobert, as a small ball 5, and can provide switching and rim protection. He has a better chance of being a good 3 point shooter than Favs, but I would not plan on it.

So I think it takes 4/30-32ish... still young and is improving.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think he gets close to it. I think you gave him half the MLE... if he'd take that I'd give him all 4 years no options. I think he gets close to full MLE. I think we might be able to get him for salary that starts at full MLE and declines by the maximum allowed instead of increases. I think he provides a lot of value as a guy that can play with Gobert, as a small ball 5, and can provide switching and rim protection. He has a better chance of being a good 3 point shooter than Favs, but I would not plan on it.

So I think it takes 4/30-32ish... still young and is improving.

Yeah, I mistyped. I meant to say slightly more than half the MLE.

The only team I can really see paying him over the MLE are the Thunder, which might happen.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The most Exum is getting is the MLE. The deal I did for him isnt too far off the MLE, so he wouldnt get much more and the deal I'm giving him let's him bet on himself a bit in that he can opt out of his final year if he succeeds.

I think a 3/24ish is fair... make the final years options and give a little more this year. I'm not sure he'd want a lot of extra years... likely think he will make much more. I think he knows this is likely his best place to develop, but who knows... I'd bet we keep him... 85% sure.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I mistyped. I meant to say slightly more than half the MLE.

The only team I can really see paying him over the MLE are the Thunder, which might happen.

He's unrestricted, so I'd may a strong offer and front load it slightly early in FA period when PG is still in limbo. They are in tax hell if PG comes back (he might still... that 5th year and bigger raises may be a factor). Start it at 8.4 then 8.1, 7.9, 7.7... not many teams will use MLE... he should take it and I really like the fit. IF he developed his jumper he'd be amazing for us. If not I think he'd give us a lot of what Favs does at a better LT price.

 

[Ron Mexico]

I would offer Exum a 2 year 20 million with a team option for 2 more years. I think that is allowed.

I could be wrong but I think a team offers him 4 40ish deal. I think the Jazz would match that but it would be better to have a little more control. Even if it's a 4 year 30 to 35 year deal we have to match I would rather pay a little more for a team option just in case.

When healthy Exum has been an elite defender who can create for himself. That is worth paying for. If he can get a solid open set 3 point shot down here will be gold.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I would offer Exum a 2 year 20 million with a team option for 2 more years. I think that is allowed.

I could be wrong but I think a team offers him 4 40ish deal. I think the Jazz would match that but it would be better to have a little more control. Even if it's a 4 year 30 to 35 year deal we have to match I would rather pay a little more for a team option just in case.

When healthy Exum has been an elite defender who can create for himself. That is worth paying for. If he can get a solid open set 3 point shot down here will be gold.

I don't think you can do 2 years on the option. I'd do a 3/30 with the final year 1M guaranteed... offers flexibility if he needs to be waived and stretched.

 

[LogGrad98]

Instant fail on #2 alone. Didn't even read the rest. Unless someone tells me you use Parker as a trade piece later or something. He is not worth the risk. His D is non-existent, he is injury prone, and he is very inconsistent on offense. That is a hard no.

 

[r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t]

... as does Hood (in the wrong way). He was so bad and ruined like every lineup he was in. Not sure Jabari is as bad as Hood was on defense this year but the data is just damning. ...

do you mean the data on Hood or Parker (or both) is damning? give us some data on Parker. i really don't know about his defense and i'd like to know more. but data, not just opinions.

 

[LogGrad98]

I'm surprised this isnt being more well received. It addresses every concern the team has (scoring, shooting, defense against top teams). I do get the Jabari apprehension with his health, but you have to take a shot at some point and betting on free agency in 2019 seems like a bigger risk than Jabari's health.

Or you stand pat. Try to re-sign Favs at a reasonable contract, try to retain Exum, see what the draft brings, and explore some trades, but I think it would be better to make minimal moves this off-season and wait for next when we can play games with cap space.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

do you mean the data on Hood or Parker (or both) is damning? give us some data on Parker. i really don't know about his defense and i'd like to know more. but data, not just opinions.

Parker - He's bottom 5 in DRPM for his position every year.

I was looking at Jazz lineup data... almost every two man group with Rudy is extremely positive... Hood is the opposite... wasn't good with anyone. His DRPM was much worse than Parker's this year, but I just think unless a guy can get close to average it will hurt your defense no matter how damn good Gobert is.

 

[LogGrad98]

do you mean the data on Hood or Parker (or both) is damning? give us some data on Parker. i really don't know about his defense and i'd like to know more. but data, not just opinions.

BY YEAR GP MIN OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG AST% AST/TO AST RATIO OREB% DREB% REB% TO RATIO EFG% TS% USG% PACE PIE
2017-18 31 24.0 106.0 109.5 -3.5 12.9 1.31 12.8 6.2 16.4 11.2 9.8 52.9 55.0 23.3 100.67 11.1

Don't know how to put this in a table, but the bolded numbers are his ORTG, DRTG and NRTG.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

One intriguing thought I've had is getting decent players with small cap holds (malcolm Brogdnon, Spencer Dinwiddie) and acquiring them now. Get the good player on the small cap hold allows us to get more space then re-sign them. Gives us more "space" by ordering how we do it.

Spencer was really good then fell off a cliff. As a bench combo guard I like him alot... so what if BKN wants max space to get Jabari? We can send all our unguaranteeds for Demarre Carroll and Dinwiddie. If he's good he gives us some insurance if Rubio gets a huge offer and walks.

Milwaukee has no expiring deals to speak of... so it'd have to be Henson or Dellavadova and Brogdnon... I'm not helping them clear space. I do wonder if you offered a lotto protected 2019 1st if that gets you Malcolm. Shine seems to be off there, but I like him still.

 

[LogGrad98]

Parker is also -2.91 on ESPNs real plus/minus rating, #444 in the league. Only 3 players for the Bucks have lower +/- rating. If you think +/- has any value.