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The West Conundrum

As long as Lebron and AD have relative health the Lakers should be better this year. Say 60+ games out of both. They did a great job filling in the roster… sadly.

Dallas should be really good unless Kyrie brings matches and a gas can… which honestly is like a 50/50 proposition. They made some solid moves.

Suns will be really good unless 2 of Book, KD, Beal struggle to stay healthy.

Grizz I can see going either way. If Ja actually gets back after 25 games I can see them being solid but they are betting a lot on development of their young guys.

Nuggs will keep on plugging along.

Kings will end up having a down year… likely slightly worse than last year… will end up in the play in.

Everyone is jumping on OKC bandwagon… and I get it but I can also see them struggling if SGA gets hurt.

Clips are the one I can see really falling off. Kawhi is broken… PG is constantly hurt… and both guys want extensions. The other vets are done buying in… I just think that’s the one that might be over… getting Harden may push them 5 wins if they get a rip off deal.

SA, Houston, Portland are going to be tank city… maybe SA surprises.

GS, Minny, NOP are all teams I could see at 35 or close to 50 wins depending on health.

As currently constructed I think our win range is like 34-44 wins depending on how the roster gels and how healthy we are. It’s not a place I love but don’t see the obvious way up at the moment. Need one of the young guys to have a Kessler pop or make a big trade. I’d guess the young player popping is what ends up happening. We need to clear some pt for that to happen. This likely becomes the frustrating treadmill year before the bigger jump up. We likey give up a late lotto pick but that’s okay. The obligation being taken care of would be good.
 
nateboz said:
Lakers and Clippers will struggle. They both are relying on injury prone vets that are just getting older.
Spurs still have a terrible roster.
Houston has an expensive Medocre backcourt, with young guys who already play losing hero ball.
OKC should be much better, but their roster still isn't great.
Dallas has a poorly built team. Luka will probably ask for a trade sooner than later.
Denver will be solid.
Portland will be the worst team in the west.
Sacramento should be good, they usually suck so who knows.
Minnesota will miss the playoffs and probably look to either blow it up or trade Towns or Rudy to tweak the roster.
Phoenix should be solid. Booker, Beal and Durrant are going to cook when they're healthy.
Jazz will be significantly better. Every position should be better and deeper. Kessler will develop a little offense. Collins probably won't be the player he was 3 years ago, but he will be much better than Gay. The 3 rookies will be interesting. 1 will fade, and 1 will get 15 minutes, and 1 will end up being a huge piece. My guess is Hendricks will end up as best.
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I no see Hendricks so no I have opinion but Keyonte 25 minutes maybe more. He be very good. To be better than any now Jazz guards. All-Star future.
 
I think how good we are this year will have a lot to do with how good John Collins shoots the ball. If he is back to shooting high 30s from 3 and defenses have to respect him then our spacing should be good. That will allow guys like THT, Sexton, George to get where they want to.

If he's shooting like he did for the first half of last year then we could have spacing problems. Our best stretch of the season last year also coincided with KOs hot streak. I think it will be important for our team to get good shooting out of the 4.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I think how good we are this year will have a lot to do with how good John Collins shoots the ball. If he is back to shooting high 30s from 3 and defenses have to respect him then our spacing should be good. That will allow guys like THT, Sexton, George to get where they want to.

If he's shooting like he did for the first half of last year then we could have spacing problems. Our best stretch of the season last year also coincided with KOs hot streak. I think it will be important for our team to get good shooting out of the 4.
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If Kessler comes back from Team USA with more confidence, he could average a double-double and be a major floor-raiser. His combination of size, mobility, energy and great hands is a lot to contend with.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If Kessler comes back from Team USA with more confidence, he could average a double-double and be a major floor-raiser. His combination of size, mobility, energy and great hands is a lot to contend with.
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That would be great. I think we should at least prepare ourselves for a sophomore slump though.
 
We have one of the best coaches in the league and even if we have three rookies and 0 all-nba talent aside Lauri making it 2024... I think Vegas and the casuals will be surprised again. We are creating something new and we hit at least that 40 wins mark this season... It is true we lost some names last season butt even with the constant changes this roster was in games. We also have now more defense with Dunn and Collins. We are golden. i could care less what others do. Will Hard is the next big thing with ateam filled with rag-tag mentality and two elite bigs+ the most underappreciated guard in league - hail Kris Dunn!
 
Returning to this subject as now the offseason moves are largely done and Vegas O/U lines are in for teams like the Blazers as well.

It looks even more likely that we have some completely fraudlent teams out here In the West.

Vegas O/U lines atm for West and difference to last years actual win totals in brackets:
Nuggets 52.5 (-0.5)
Sun 52.5 (+7.5)
Warriors 48.5 (+4.5)
Lakers 47.5 (+4.5)
Clippers 46.5 (+2.5)
Grizzlies 45.5 (-5.5)
Wolves 45.5 (+3.5)
Kings 44.5 (-3.5)
Mavs 44.5 (+6.5)
Thunder 44.5 (+4.5)
Pels 44.5 (+2.5)

Thats the top 11. Then there is a ridiculous gap of 9 wins between 11 and 12 with bottom 4 being:
Jazz 35.5 (-1.5)
Rockets 31.5 (+9.5)
Spurs 29.5 (+7.5)
Blazers 28.5 (-4.5)

So all in all, they are giving west +37.5 wins more than they combined for last year. Grizzlies, Kings and Blazers are expected to be clearly worse, Nuggets and Jazz are expected to remain about the same while all other 10 teams are expected to improve.

This is not what will happen. My guess is the frauds are Mavs, OKC, Clippers and Pels, while Jazz will greatly exceed the expected wins.
 
Jazz should win more than 35. I expect 38-42 range. Minny too could be a good surprised. Watch the 2 games agaisnt Dallas and they seems to have a gret bench this year.
 
I don't know where any of those teams will end up but one can say the West is packed with good teams and it is going to be a dogfight to get out of the West. I am excited about this season to see how the Jazz put the pieces together and to see how and if they can compete for a playoff spot.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
A conversation usually involves responding to what the person said, not repeating exactly what I said.
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Actually it's more formulating an answer to something they said instead of simply reformulating their statements.
 
HermanG said:
Can all these things be simultaneously true?
  • Spurs improve their record after adding Wemby
  • Rockets improve after adding FVV+Brooks+Amen+Cam
  • Jazz improve after adding Collins, Keyonte, Hendricks and Sensabaugh (and also by not tanking the rest of the way next season)
  • OKC improve after adding Chet and Wallace
  • Lakers improve after all their applauded offseason moves
  • Suns improve after adding Beal (plus Durant wasnt there full year)
  • Nuggets stay as class of the conference
Thats 7 of the 15 teams in the West who are very realistically expected to improve or hold their record. The only one we really expect to fall right now are Blazers, but they already finished bottom 3 in the West last year so its not like they can "make much room" for those on the rise.

Even if you dismiss 1 or 2 from that list being true it still raises this question:
Where does that leave the other teams... Grizzlies, Kings, Clippers, Warriors, Wolves, Pels and Mavs?

All those teams have expectations attached to them, and apart from maybe Grizzlies and Kings the rest of them have some major future concerns going forward if they fall to make way for the teams on the rise. So the question is:
Who or what gives in?
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Interesting to go back to this summer of 2023 thread and review what actually happened between those two seasons in the West.
  • Spurs improve their record after adding Wemby
    • FALSE. They ended up with the exact same 22-60 record as the year before
  • Rockets improve after adding FVV+Brooks+Amen+Cam
    • TRUE, by a large margin. They went from 22 to 41 wins
  • Jazz improve after adding Collins, Keyonte, Hendricks and Sensabaugh (and also by not tanking the rest of the way next season)
    • FALSE as we did repeat the end of season tank against what I expected
  • OKC improve after adding Chet and Wallace
    • TRUE by a large margin (from 40 to 57 wins)
  • Lakers improve after all their applauded offseason moves
    • TRUE, as they went from 43 to 47 wins
  • Suns improve after adding Beal (plus Durant wasnt there full year)
    • TRUE, as they went from 45 to 49 wins
  • Nuggets stay as class of the conference
    • TRUE, as they improved from 53 to 57 wins and finished tied for best
Here are the West win total changes between 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons
Rockets +19 wins
Thunder +17 wins
Wolves +14 wins
Mavs +12 wins
Clippers +7 wins
Pelicans +7 wins
Nuggets +4 wins
Suns +4 wins
Lakers +4 wins
Warriors +2 wins
Spurs +- 0 wins
Kings -2 wins
Jazz -6 wins
Blazers -12 wins
Grizzlies -24 wins

So Grizzlies, Blazers, Jazz and Kings donated 44 wins to the pool, while the East teams gave 49 wins more to West teams in 2023-24 than the season before. Interesting to see what happens this upcoming season.
 
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