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Tough Schedule: Myth? True? Both?

S

SLCHooper

Well-Known Member
Looking back at the pre-January Schedule, the Jazz lost 7 games they should have without question win.. The loss at Lakers was the game DM got hurt in (so they get a pass).
Mon, Oct 22
vsMemphis
L92-84

Wed, Oct 31
@Minnesota
L128-125
Fri, Nov 2
vsMemphis
L110-100
Wed, Nov 14
@Dallas
L118-68
Wed, Nov 21
vsSacramento
L119-110
Sun, Dec 2
@Miami
L102-100
Sat, Dec 15
vsOrlando *
L96-89
I am making this point to show that the Jazz should be tied for 1st in the West if they win those games (44-20). I understand teams are going to lose games they shouldn't lose (portland at home needs to be a win, etc)...but these 7 are INEXCUSABLE losses. These are losses to teams who are either lottery or outside of the top 6 in the East (basically lottery). I wouldn't hold this team to such a high standard if they haven't been the complete opposite after January. They have won the games you are supposed to win and only lost 1 they were supposed to win (NO on Monday). Aside from the atrocious performance in Dallas, this team was in striking distance of every game they lost that we weren't supposed to pre-January (including the Lakers game that DM got hurt in).

Tough Schedule a myth or true?
- If this team had another piece, the schedule would not have been too tough (imo) but for this team, yea it was too tough. The numbers don't lie, it was the toughest in the league pre-January but it still doesn't mean that with another piece this team couldn't win the 7 games they lost.

We can all discuss what needs to happen in the summer to bring this team closer to a championship (Durant to NYK is a start..haha) but I just found it interesting that with how Jekyll and Hyde this team has been, they aren't THAT far away from a Championship run.


IF THIS DOESN'T DESERVE ITS OWN THREAD, I UNDERSTAND...STILL A NEWB

(PLEASE DON'T RESIGN RUBIO).....ok, bye
 
do me a favor and check the other teams in front of the Jazz and list the games that they should have won but didn't. as you already pointed out, there are games that teams are supposed to win but don't.

having said that, it can be frustrating when the team doesn't come to play. it is very difficult to be 'on' all the time. this is where having one more 'guy' to carry the load could make the difference.
 
The schedule at the start of the year was tough. It's true.

Buuuuuttttt it's used as an excuse on this board far too often.

We have the talent and ability to be where Denver is in the standings. And we're not. Not only are we not, our play and record for most of the early part of the season was inexcusable regardless of schedule. I'm sure the Jazz coaches and players would agree with me. But for some reason many on this board cling to how tough the schedule was.
 
You understand that schedule difficulty is a cumulative issue, right? The problem with such a heinously difficult travel schedule is that the usual winnability factors in games like those listed above get negated.

In a sense, pointing out those games actually illustrates why the early schedule was such a problem. In the absence of brutal travel and lots of really tough tiring games sandwiching them, those games should have been mostly (or all) wins. However, even bad teams are still NBA teams, and when you're totally spent, you lose the advantage from the talent margin (it's really not as big as you might think).
 
Sixers lost to the bulls last night.

Day before that blazers lost to the grizzlies and thunder lost to the wolves. (Warriors also lost)

Day before that bucks lost to the suns

2 days before that the nuggets lost to pelicans

2 days before that the warriors lost to the magic


And on and on and on.

Good teams lose to bad ones on an almost nightly basis. Maybe the jazz were losing to bad teams more often than most good teams do early on. Maybe that was because the schedule was so tough. Maybe it was because DM wasn't right health wise.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Eh, rough take here. Dallas and Memphis were playing well to start the year, @MIN isn't a bad loss, SAC is good, and @MIA isn't that bad of a loss. I was pretty pissed when we lost to Orlando though, that was a really bad game. The team has played right about at expectations so far if they stay on the projected path.
 
There are more factors than how good a team is in strength of schedule.

Also some of those teams were playing very well at the time.

Also it wasnt just a hard schedule it was a very hard schedule. We had a harder month than any team in the NBA had in their entire season. It was a large factor and we have seen how that plays out for multiple seasons now. Its hard when the team plays a brutal schedule. Its hard to get momentum when you are losing, very tired and worn out, and playing lots of good teams.
 
According to W/L record, didnt the Jazz indeed have the toughest schedule to start the season?

All teams go through slumps. Just look at the teams GS has lost to of late. If teams won every game they were supposed to, the Warriors would win 80 every year.

There's no doubt Utah needs another top player. They've lost some head scratchers. They've also had unexpected wins. While other teams improved, Utah went sideways last summer. And some players who had career years aren't matching their prior success. So I think to even get back to 48 wins would show improvement.

It's really another wasted season for Rudy. And if I were Donovan, I'd be pissed at Lindsey. He needs help. All Dennis gave him was Niang and Allen. One more summer of the status quo and I'd encourage Mitchell to ask for a trade.
 
Jack Strop said:
According to W/L record, didnt the Jazz indeed have the toughest schedule to start the season?
Click to expand...

iirc it was the toughest stretch of a schedule in the history of the NBA in any season ever.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
None of those teams were out of the playoff hunt when we played them. The Grizz were in 1st for a bit. I don't really think any of those are bad losses. If we go lose to Phoenix down the stretch, then that would be a bad loss.
 
Jack Strop said:
According to W/L record, didnt the Jazz indeed have the toughest schedule to start the season?

All teams go through slumps. Just look at the teams GS has lost to of late. If teams won every game they were supposed to, the Warriors would win 80 every year.

There's no doubt Utah needs another top player. They've lost some head scratchers. They've also had unexpected wins. While other teams improved, Utah went sideways last summer. And some players who had career years aren't matching their prior success. So I think to even get back to 48 wins would show improvement.

It's really another wasted season for Rudy. And if I were Donovan, I'd be pissed at Lindsey. He needs help. All Dennis gave him was Niang and Allen. One more summer of the status quo and I'd encourage Mitchell to ask for a trade.
Click to expand...
Donovan will have started his career leading his team to back to back playoff trips, potentially getting out of the first round each time. There aren't many young players who can say that. The idea that he should ask for a trade after two seasons is maybe the dumbest take I've seen on this website, which is saying quite a lot.
 
OP's point is moot. The Jazz followed the predictions of various models, like 538, which take into account the schedule. This thread might have made sense a couple of months ago, before the tough schedule hypothesis was confirmed (Jazz record evened up, as models said it would).
 
Alfalfa said:
OP's point is moot. The Jazz followed the predictions of various models, like 538, which take into account the schedule. This thread might have made sense a couple of months ago, before the tough schedule hypothesis was confirmed (Jazz record evened up, as models said it would).
Click to expand...

538 projected the Jazz to have 54 wins. The Jazz aren't winning 54 unless they go 17-1 which isn't likely. So this is looking incorrect. It hasn't evened up.
 
SCS said:
538 projected the Jazz to have 54 wins. The Jazz aren't winning 54 unless they go 17-1 which isn't likely. So this is looking incorrect. It hasn't evened up.
Click to expand...

538 was wrong (and it probably was on the very high end for pre-season projections in terms of Jazz wins).

In a general sense, Jazz have underperformed a bit this season, compared to many expectations. But the difference (in my view) is not large and not worth getting much worked up about. Donovan has not taken the expected overall leap. Rubio has not been his best self often. The Jazz overall have not shot as well from 3, etc. Sometimes it's worth just acknowledging that progress isn't always linear and as expected.

In any event, with essentially the same team, the Jazz have a good shot to have a better record than a year ago. I'll take that.
 
Seems to me that the 538 predictions were off for a bunch of top western conference teams, including us, the Rockets, the Warriors and the Thunder. This I think has less to do with these teams underperforming and more to do with the non playoff western conference teams being much better than anticipated.
 
Jazz should finish with 52 wins or so, which isn't a huge deviation from what 538 predicted.

I agree with idiot's comments. Except the last paragraph is what really bothers me. "...with essentially the same team, the Jazz have a good shot to have a better record than a year ago. I'll take that."

Donovan took a couple of months to break out last season. Gobert was hurt. Lindsey FAILED to build on the momentum of last April at all. While the rest of the West got better, Dennis played on his fiddle. Simply unacceptable to add Allen and Niang in place of Stockton and Jerebko.
 
Jack Strop said:
Jazz should finish with 52 wins or so, which isn't a huge deviation from what 538 predicted.

I agree with idiot's comments. Except the last paragraph is what really bothers me. "...with essentially the same team, the Jazz have a good shot to have a better record than a year ago. I'll take that."

Donovan took a couple of months to break out last season. Gobert was hurt. Lindsey FAILED to build on the momentum of last April at all. While the rest of the West got better, Dennis played on his fiddle. Simply unacceptable to add Allen and Niang in place of Stockton and Jerebko.
Click to expand...
Allen has more upside than Stockton but I'll grant Niang is a step down from Jerebko. Korver is a much more useful player than Burks was, interesting you left him out. Doesn't fit your frankly tired narrative though I guess.
 
The hardest schedule in the history of sports strikes again. I mean how are we supposed to beat a 26-40 Grizzlies team? They're superhuman. Damn near unbeatable. It's okay though cuz the schedule is going to ease up here and everything will even out.
 
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