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Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

Gun to your head, would you rather...

Have Donovan Mitchell at $110 million or whatever it is for 3 sexy years of volume shooting and improved defense only to watch him leave?

RJ Barrett and whatever he does well enough at $120 million across 4 years?

Or Lauri Markaanen locked up for 3 years for $51 million?

Stay thirsty my friends...
 
Bodhi said:
Nah, look at advanced stats, unless advanced stats don’t prove your point, in which case use the eye test.

Use the one that proves your point and discount the other.


Or parts of each.


Under no circumstances, change your mind. Show no weakness.
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To be more precise, here is the full progression flow of confirmation bias:
1) Form an opinion based on eye ball test or gut feeling
2) Find a stat or stats to support your opinion (CONFIRMED)
3) If #2 fails, find an advance stat or stats to support your opinion (remember all lineup variations!!!) (CONFIRMED)
4) If #2 and #3 fail, find an "expert" that supports your opinion (CONFIRMED)
5) If #2-#4 fail, seriously, find any random dude from the internet who supports your opinion (CONFIRMED)
6) If #2-#5 fail, you should really trust your gut anyways (CONFIRMED)

Veteran posters can skip phases 2-5.
 
The confirmation bias I most often see on the board is in game threads when posters only look for the good for player's they like and only look for the bad for player's they dislike. In reality all players do a mix of good or bad in every game, but for the player they like they focus on the 40% of the shots they make vs the player they dislike they focus on the 60% of the shots that they miss (as an example).

As far as statistics, I think it's important to differentiate between black box statistics like RAPTOR, LEBRON, etc. and statistics based on known calculations. If the statistics are based on known calculations, it should be possible to understand the context in which they support/refute an argument for or against an opinion about a player. Whether a person likes or dislikes a player is obviously subjective, but there are so many ways to objectively evaluate players with stats based on known calculations, that we don't need to cry confirmation bias every time statistics are used.
 
Bodhi said:
They don’t have time to develop him in the consistent 20 mins a night he’s getting in his first 2 years.

Buried on the bench. Except for those 20 mins each game….
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He only got 5 cuz the coach benched his *** tonight. He’s not good.
 
HermanG said:
To be more precise, here is the full progression flow of confirmation bias:
1) Form an opinion based on eye ball test or gut feeling
2) Find a stat or stats to support your opinion (CONFIRMED)
3) If #2 fails, find an advance stat or stats to support your opinion (remember all lineup variations!!!) (CONFIRMED)
4) If #2 and #3 fail, find an "expert" that supports your opinion (CONFIRMED)
5) If #2-#4 fail, seriously, find any random dude from the internet who supports your opinion (CONFIRMED)
6) If #2-#5 fail, you should really trust your gut anyways (CONFIRMED)

Veteran posters can skip phases 2-5.
Click to expand...

Bold of you to assume that I need to use my eyes or gut to have a strong opinion about something that I know absolutely nothing about.
 
Jonathan Haidt's book "The Righteous Mind" does a good job explaining and analyzing our biases based on recent research in social psychology. Who knows, maybe he will write a follow up book about fan biases called "The Righteous Fan."
 
The bulls looked like a team ready to be broken up last night… wonder if they are the team that blows it up.
 
Bodhi said:
Nah, look at advanced stats, unless advanced stats don’t prove your point, in which case use the eye test.

Use the one that proves your point and discount the other.


Or parts of each.


Under no circumstances, change your mind. Show no weakness.
Click to expand...
Not sure what gives you the impression that I ever refuted Bones being a bad defender. I just called him better than Sexton with more length and potential to become better on that end (and yes, the advanced stats, eye test, and anthrometric data all back this up). The idea that I'm super invested in a guy like Bones because I'm open to trading JV for him (a guy who on his own is worth second rounders) is wild

The Nuggets are a team that needs more defense and Malone is pretty infamous for not developing players well. It's a good buy low situation on a player with talent. Him getting pulled after 5 minutes because he did a THT tornado shot (yes I watched too) doesn't change anything. He's a young dude frustrated that is having trouble finding where he fits and probably mentally struggling with trade rumors

You can also say the same thing about the strongly anti Bones post. He has several strong indicators (advanced stats, contract, highlight games, and skill set) that some are also ignoring.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Not sure what gives you the impression that I ever refuted Bones being a bad defender. I just called him better than Sexton with more length and potential to become better on that end (and yes, the advanced stats, eye test, and anthrometric data all back this up). The idea that I'm super invested in a guy like Bones because I'm open to trading JV for him (a guy who on his own is worth second rounders) is wild

The Nuggets are a team that needs more defense and Malone is pretty infamous for not developing players well. It's a good buy low situation on a player with talent. Him getting pulled after 5 minutes because he did a THT tornado shot (yes I watched too) doesn't change anything. He's a young dude frustrated that is having trouble finding where he fits and probably mentally struggling with trade rumors

You can also say the same thing about the strongly anti Bones post. He has several strong indicators (advanced stats, contract, highlight games, and skill set) that some are also ignoring.
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That’s an elaborate reply to a post that didn’t once mention Bones Hyland, his defense, JV, 2nd round picks, value, advanced stats, contracts etc.
 
Bodhi said:
That’s an elaborate reply to a post that didn’t once mention Bones Hyland, his defense, JV, 2nd round picks, value, advanced stats, contracts etc.
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It's not just responding to you specifically but everyone. I feel like a lot of people like to misconstrue/straw man stances so they are easier to argue against.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Not sure what gives you the impression that I ever refuted Bones being a bad defender. I just called him better than Sexton with more length and potential to become better on that end
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I’m sick of this he has potential crap!! Defense transitions from college to pros quite nice. It’s one of those things if you have it you have it. Players rarely improve if you come in a **** defender. Bones is the ********* of defenders I’ve ever seen, I’d believe Sexton would improve before bones. It is shocking how much you hate Sexton but like Bones






IDIOT!!
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
They are like advanced advanced stats.
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I ask the question because I’ve used it a lot lately and while I was using it last night to confirm the confirmation bias I have with Immanuel Quickley (would be a killer lead guard for our young team IMO. Can’t wait to have that torn apart…) I looked up Bones, and you know how that went right?

So do you put stock in those advanced stats? Honest question.
 
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