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Was Fes' Play Last Night An Aberration?

InGameStrategy said:
... But the fact that Fes came into last season without much summer progress does not explain why he didn’t play during the middle of the season when his skills and conditioning had improved but his on-court experience (as shown by unnecessary fouls and turnovers) had not. And you also fail to explain why Fesenko should be penalized so harshly when other players were not.
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I'll attempt to answer.

Fesenko is not penalized more, but it possibly appears that way. Lets say for arguments sake (pun intended) that Okur and Fes come to camp in same physical shape and it is percieved as a negative level of acceptance. As a result they are both penalized -1 unit. If Okur has a JSPR (Jerry Sloann Player Rating) of 6 and Fes has a JSPR of 1 then Okur's JSPR is adjusted from 6 down to 5 and Fes is adjusted 1 down to 0. In this case Fes does not see the court. It would appear that Fes is penalized more, but really for him it was just more expensive becuase he had so little margin for error. And we've all experienced this "you don't have much margin for error" situation (in one way or another) before.


Is Okur that much higher rated that Fes?

Would Okur and Fes be rated significantly closer if Fes just got some real game playing time?

And if he got the playing time, is that more beneficial to the team overall? (Compared to using valueable game time experience on your best players rather than a player who might improve enough to be one of the most valuable players.)

So is this really all just about "jackpotting around" and thus Fes got a JSPR of 0?
 
He was better in the Denver series, and - I've set a countdown for IGS to mention this - Fesenko has a good +/-.
 
Ben10 said:
Some great quotes from Sloan on Fes in this article
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Yeah, good article, Ben. Might put to rest some of the "Sloan hates Fess for petty reasons and won't play him" talk. Then again, we're talkin S2, here, so.....

I think Sloan just echoes what most posters in this thread have been sayin:

"You know, he's big. You're talking about a big man, spread out. And we've all seen his athletic ability, which he has a lot of. It's just a matter of him trying to harness that, and stay focused on what he's doing."
 
Hopper said:
Heh, S2, a couple of comments:

1. You repeatedly make such assertions as though they were indisputable fact. To you they are, or course. Any assertion you make is true beyond question in your mind. Still, you sayin it don't make it true.
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Um, I attempt to equip my arguments with evidence and analysis. And when I misspeak (as in the weight situation), I correct, so your claim doesn't really hold as a blanket statement. (BTW, even my adjustment to 12 pounds was still overstating the change over the summer. I believe an inside source--go4jazz--before I believe you. And it is hypocritical of you to say that when you use fewer citations than I do.

Here's another one, which may be what you have been citing from, but differes from what you were claiming.

"Between participating with his national team and working out on his own, Fesenko returned to the Jazz about 25 pounds lighter than last fall."
https://www.deseretnews.com/article...rylo-Fesenko-is-leaner-meaner-and-fitter.html.

This was likely mistransferred to "bandwagoner" websites such as rotoworld, who are likely farther from the situation and thus poached the information incorrectly, stating that that he lost 20-25 pounds but didn't specify over what time period. And then you come along and--reading what you want--translate into a time period over the summer.

I trust go4jazz over the local news media, and I trust the local news media over bandwagoners.


Hopper said:
2. Even your own claim is limited by the qualifying phrase "on several occasions." Sloan has complained about (and Fess himself has acknowledged) Fess's lack of consistency. Assuming and asserting (which I don't) that Fess outplayed the Paperboy and Memo on "several occasions" is cherry-pickin at it's best. How about all the other times when he didn't? They just don't count, that it? Sloan, like all coaches, is lookin for sumthin dependable, not sumthin unpredictable, that may or may not materialize.
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Unfortunately I don't think the play-by-play is accessible for previous years anymore, but I'll cite you the teams against which I recall Fesenko outperforming Memo and/or Millsap sometime in the past two seasons: Memphis, Atlanta, Dallas, Fesenko ended up with the highest on-court/off-court +/- on the TEAM last year, so yes, on more occasions than not, his contribution to the team's success was significantly higher than Memo's and Millsap's. Just to counter any ridiculous hyperbole that you might conjuring, all I was asking for was 10 to 15 minutes per game, which is the minimum that I argue to be necessary for a player to both develop and demonstrate--good or bad--his performance. If he were to do better (including better than the alternatives) in those 10-15 MPG, then he gets more. If not, he doesn't. You conveniently brush off that not only had Sloan acknowledged directly to Fes that he wanted to to get him more minutes, but then DNP's him for multiple games following. Not any effort at all to get him in the game--for 5 minutes, much less 10 or 15. Such a strategy didn't work for Deron in his rookie season (he blossomed despite the temporary setback, and it was only over starting vs. backup, not time vs. NO TIME), and it didn't work last year for Fes because Sloan held him back. As gojazz pointed out, I was wrong on the weight; he didn't lose 12 pounds over the summer; he lost even less than that. Maybe 5 or 10 pounds makes a big difference, but I doubt it. I invite anyone to cite something that says that losing 5 or 10 pounds really helps a 290-pounder in his agility.

Hopper said:
3. In what (limited) sense are you even trying to claim that Fess was superior "on several occasions?" Cloggin up the lane? I'll give you that. Anything else? Spreadin the floor and opening up things for his teammates? Knowing and executing the plays correctly and predictably (also helping his teammates)? Makin a three point shot now and again? Pullin in 20+ rebounds, as Millsap sometimes did? Fightin tooth and nail, like the Paperboy? My own damn self, I don't say one player in "outplaying" another simply because he might be better in 1 of 10 relevant categories.
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I'm glad you'll give "clogging up the lane". That's all I need. That's a center's #1 job on a contender team, given that no outside-shooting, poor-defending center has started on a title winner in recent memory. (Think Perkins/Garnett, Duncan/Admiral, Bynum/Gasol, Wallace/Wallace, etc.) Controlling the paint can make the difference of 5, 10, or 15 points in a quarter alone. Okur averaged about 13.8 points per 30 minutes last season; Fesenko averaged 9.4. So Fesenko would only need to stop one more basket during the proposed 10 minutes of play than than Okur would to justify his worth out there. And given how abysmal Okur's help D was, that's not hard to do, even though Fes is still inexperienced. The combination of leading Fesenko on but then making no effort to find him minutes, even when his performance, is bad MANAGEMENT, of which coaching is merely a subset.
 
I really don't know why I waste my time, S2, but here, one more time: In an interview with David Locke last week, Fess (not a guy who "knows" Fess) said he lost 20-25 pounds between 6-26-10 and 8-29-10, and he said the weight loss helped him "a lot." The interview has been cited in one of my prior posts. Listen to it. Then read the ******** you just wrote to try to convince yourself that your claims are always correct. I won't bother with the rest of your post, aint nuthin new there.
 
InGameStrategy said:
Not any effort at all to get him in the game--for 5 minutes, much less 10 or 15. Such a strategy didn't work for Deron in his rookie season (he blossomed despite the temporary setback, and it was only over starting vs. backup, not time vs. NO TIME),
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It's very nice of you to acknowledge that Williams did indeed develp without the playing time at PG, just as Sloan felt he should. Since then, Williams has acknowledged that, as much as he disliked how his minutes were handled, the experience was beneficial for him.

InGameStrategy said:
and it didn't work last year for Fes because Sloan held him back. As gojazz pointed out, I was wrong on the weight; he didn't lose 12 pounds over the summer; he lost even less than that. Maybe 5 or 10 pounds makes a big difference, but I doubt it. I invite anyone to cite something that says that losing 5 or 10 pounds really helps a 290-pounder in his agility.
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I don't know how well-informed go4jazz is on this. Maybe he can give us another comparison, on Fesenko's weight in June 2009 vs. June 2010 (they are probably not that different). Most players seem to gain wieght over the summer, even if only a few pounds. So, to say Fesenko only lost a few pounds is still to highlight the excellent job he did on his conditioning this summer, contrasted with what he did not do previous summers.

That said, even 9 pounds (assuming go4jaz's numbers are more accurate than the ones from Fesenko or the media, that what it would have been) means just over 3% bodyfat (again, assuming there is not added muscle mass, which with all the conditioning, you would expect). Reucing your bodyfat from 15% to 12%, or from 12% to 9%, makes a difference. You ever walked around all day with 5-pound weights strapped to your ankles?
 
People who think in terms of cliches and oversimplifications are not likely to have much insight into a guy as complex as Sloan. Sloan doesn't play rookies....Sloan rewards effort, not performance--Sloan is an egomaniacal tyrant who has no concern for the team's best interest, he only wants to satisfy his neurotic need to bully his players, etc.

Koufos was always praised for his work effort, but played very little. Same with guys like Roger Powell and no doubt many others. I wonder why? Maybe because effort is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for playin in the NBA? Wait, that would be too complex, wouldn't it? There has to be a simpler explanation that simpletons can easily understand.

I wonder if Koufos and his friends and family blame Sloan for Koufos not being named to the all-star team already after playin a full year of college ball?

There are coaches in the NBA who will eat any kinda crap they're told to eat by their superstars, and who will indulge and cater to their worst tendencies, because they feel their job is dependent on satisfiying their stars. Sloan aint one of them. Tough break for prima donnas on the Jazz, eh? If only S2 was their agent, I'm sure Sloan would see the light and give in to their demands.
 
After becoming thoroughly frustrated with the intolerable situation he was in during his first year with the Jazz, Deron Williams finally called his college coach for help and advice. Surely his old coach, who knew him well, appreciated his talents, and always supported him would see it his way, right?

Well, not quite. His college coach told him to quit crying and just do what the coach told him. Talk about a Judas, eh!?
 
One Brow said:
It's very nice of you to acknowledge that Williams did indeed develp without the playing time at PG, just as Sloan felt he should. Since then, Williams has acknowledged that, as much as he disliked how his minutes were handled, the experience was beneficial for him.



I don't know how well-informed go4jazz is on this. Maybe he can give us another comparison, on Fesenko's weight in June 2009 vs. June 2010 (they are probably not that different). Most players seem to gain wieght over the summer, even if only a few pounds. So, to say Fesenko only lost a few pounds is still to highlight the excellent job he did on his conditioning this summer, contrasted with what he did not do previous summers.

That said, even 9 pounds (assuming go4jaz's numbers are more accurate than the ones from Fesenko or the media, that what it would have been) means just over 3% bodyfat (again, assuming there is not added muscle mass, which with all the conditioning, you would expect). Reucing your bodyfat from 15% to 12%, or from 12% to 9%, makes a difference. You ever walked around all day with 5-pound weights strapped to your ankles?
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Sept 2008 - 318 15.9% body fat
May 2009 - 305
Sept 2009 - 308 - 14.4% body fat
May 2010 - 292
Sept 2010 - 283 - 10.3% body fat (he weighed 285 the week he got back from Ukraine and 283 early in the morning of his physical 3 weeks later)

The 20+ lbs of weight loss he is referring to is not from June 1 through September 1 but the difference in what he was from September 2009 to September 2010 coming into camp. He did lose some weight this summer but not 20+ lbs. I haven't heard the interview but probably just chalk it up to the English thing.
 
Wow a miracle, umm, err not really

Look you can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't say that Fes didn't get playing time because he didn't do summer league and yet that is why he lost weight this summer and is suddenly awesome. You can't say that he deserves playing time only now because he lost a few extra pounds over last season. All IGS and myself are saying is that a few extra minutes here and there last year would have made even more of a difference. Deserved it, didn't deserve it, whatever. You guys pointed to the latest Sloan article showing that he doesn't hate Fes. Never thought he did. In fact there are probably another 5 articles just like that one from last year saying almost identical things. All I'm trying to say is that none of you should be surprised that he can play that way. The only difference between then and now is the opportunity to show you that he can. There was no magic potion, no light switch that turned him from oaf to acceptable, 292 to 285 isn't some magic number, his potential to perform has been there for quite some time but he has finally gotten the chance to prove himself and he is.
 
Last night Fesenko looked crazy-mobile compared to what even I expected from him last season. Frankly, as an opposing big man I would find him terrifying.

Box scores continue to not do the man justice. The amount of space down low that he takes out of the equation defensively is massive.

The defensive study I want to see is the average distance of shots taken by Jazz opponents when Fesenko is on and off the floor. +/- includes that kind of information but not in the discrete way that I want to see. Just from personal observation I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fesenko's presence pushes the average offensive shot out 3-4 feet. Not certain what that would translate into percentage wise (and it would vary from team to team and line-up to line-up) but I have a suspicion this is a bigger deal than people largely give him credit for because it's harder to see and not easily recordable like rebounds (which seems to be the primary criticism of Fes).
 
Sirkickyass said:
Last night Fesenko looked crazy-mobile compared to what even I expected from him last season. Frankly, as an opposing big man I would find him terrifying.

Box scores continue to not do the man justice. The amount of space down low that he takes out of the equation defensively is massive.

The defensive study I want to see is the average distance of shots taken by Jazz opponents when Fesenko is on and off the floor. +/- includes that kind of information but not in the discrete way that I want to see. Just from personal observation I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fesenko's presence pushes the average offensive shot out 3-4 feet. Not certain what that would translate into percentage wise (and it would vary from team to team and line-up to line-up) but I have a suspicion this is a bigger deal than people largely give him credit for because it's harder to see and not easily recordable like rebounds (which seems to be the primary criticism of Fes).
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To play devil's advocate, do you think the rate at which we foul is greater with him on the floor (obviously, who the other four guys are matters too), thus offsetting what you've stated, and bringing the opponent's PPP to about the same with and/or without him on the floor. What are our opponent's PPP with and without him on the floor? Not sure if that's even a great stat to consider, just what came to mind.
 
go4jazz said:
Sept 2009 - 308 - 14.4% body fat
Sept 2010 - 283 - 10.3% body fat
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By these numbers, Fesenko had 263 lbs of non-fat body mass (muscle, bone, organs, etc.) in Sept. 2009 but only 253 lbs in Sept. 2010. You basically have him losing 10 pounds of muscle. Something is not adding up.
 
KrazeeEyezKilla said:
To play devil's advocate, do you think the rate at which we foul is greater with him on the floor (obviously, who the other four guys are matters too), thus offsetting what you've stated, and bringing the opponent's PPP to about the same with and/or without him on the floor. What are our opponent's PPP with and without him on the floor? Not sure if that's even a great stat to consider, just what came to mind.
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A few points here:

1. Not every foul Fes gets ends in the opponent shooting free throws.
2. The players Fes tends to foul (big men) on average have the lowest free throw percentages in the league, so the swing isn't the same as it would if he were fouling Steve Nash every time.
3. What you're asking about is a "net" number, so it would matter how much the person he replaces fouls quite a bit.
4. It is statistically demonstrable that foul rates decline as players amass minutes of game-time on the floor (whether through experience or more referee deference or both), so this offsetting factor would likely decline over time.
 
Sirkickyass said:
A few points here:

1. Not every foul Fes gets ends in the opponent shooting free throws.
2. The players Fes tends to foul (big men) on average have the lowest free throw percentages in the league, so the swing isn't the same as it would if he were fouling Steve Nash every time.
3. What you're asking about is a "net" number, so it would matter how much the person he replaces fouls quite a bit.
4. It is statistically demonstrable that foul rates decline as players amass minutes of game-time on the floor (whether through experience or more referee deference or both), so this offsetting factor would likely decline over time.
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I'm confused by number three (the second half of the sentence) but your points are noted. Nevertheless, I'd like to see our opponent's PPP with and without him on the floor. I'd love to especially see it at the end of the year for a Williams-Bell-AK-Jefferson-Fes lineup which I think may have the most to offer on both ends of the court and specifically on defense.
 
Having been accused in the past of being a Fes "hater", I'm going to chime in.

I don't hate Fes. As a matter of fact, I like him. I would love to see him live up to the hopes and expectations that the coaches and executives have for him. I would love to see him perform at the level that S2M and others apparently think he has already achieved. Mostly, I would like to see him step out on the court and not be a joke. I want to see him not be a walking "NBA Bloopers" video. I want to see him reach the point that when he gets the ball, I'm not holding my breath. It took Ostertag a couple of years to get there. Much of getting there is knowing what he is supposed to do. I don't want to see Deron or any other player show frustration as they point to where he's supposed to be. I do want to see his confidence continue to grow. In the half that I saw at ESA, his two drives to the basket and his elbow jumpshot were beautiful. Yeah, he got rimchecked on one of the drives, but it was still almost breathtaking in the ease he got to the basket.

Part of my frustration is reading the fanboys' assessment of Fesenko like he has actually made a difference when he's played. When I read some of the observations from the playoffs last year, I can't help but wonder that if it was Jarron Collins playing and he had done everything exactly as Fes had done it, would S2M or the other apologists have been so quick to stand up for him? I don't think so. Fes had his moments in the playoffs, but for the most part he was awful. I hope I change my tune. We'll see.
 
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