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Was Fes' Play Last Night An Aberration?

He was ready no later than last season. Evidence of this (mostly not introduced by me) showed that his focus, discipline, practice performance AND on-court performance were all improved and substantive by the middle of last season. And Sloan mentioned publicly that it would be good to get him more minutes. But he didn't. Result? Utah had an inexperienced C in the playoffs who held his own in nearly every game in the playoffs but wasn't able to do more than that. And his deficiencies are mostly experience related. He averaged 18 MPG in the playoffs, so conditioning relative to 5 to 10 MPG wasn't an issue; he didn't magically become "in shape" in April or May. He was ready for more time before then, and his performance in the playoffs only confirmed that. You are disingenuous if you claim otherwise.

At no point was Fesnko a better option than Okur in the starting lineup last season (effectively his rookie season) nor than Millsap off the bench, until Okur was injured. If Fesenko hadn't wasted two years, he would have had the time and the experience to step in.

That Fesenko played 18 minutes does not mean that he was really ready to (although there are other indications that he was), it means that Boozer and Millsap couldn't play 48.

Correct. My puzzlement over your mythical concepts that a player can develop without on-court time is disproven not only in the NBA but also in pretty much every other team sport.

You won't find a single coach or player in the NBA who says that can't develop in any fashion unless they have on-court time. I have been very clear about the types of things one can and can't develop on-court, and you have not provided a reason to dispute any of them. I even offered a simple test that would allow you to prove your point. Instead, you balked.

One other point: you can also develop bad habits when you are on the court, especially if you are not truly ready. By not playing Fesenko, Sloan may actually have been helping him avoid bad habits.

Humility really has nothing to do with my comment about Sloan's poor subsitution patterns unless the reason for them is lack of humility rather than good old-fashioned stubbornness or inattention to detail.

You think he has poor substitution patterns. I disagree. I see no reason to value your opinion.

Again, it's not desperation if Fesenko's on-court contribution is similar to--or arguably superior to--Okur's.

It never has been, overall.

Your contined implied defense of playing Okur (and Millsap for 28 MPG at the expense of developing a backup center--clearly a bigger need) is illogical.

I'm aware of your opinion. I see Okur's defensive contributions as being slightly below-average, not horrendous, and his offensive contributions as being significant. So far, Fesenko's defensive contributions were slightly above-average (for every lane blocked, he missed a rotation assignment or played a pick-and-roll badly) and his offesive contributions minimal. So, overall, Okur contributed more.

At 300 pounds, he had better speed and agility than Okur at 250,

No, he didn't. At 292 pounds, he had slightly better agility than Okur. Not at 305.

Now you have really exposed your ignorance (further). Okur's defense has continued to be poor since the first season. His help defense has been abysmal. His shot-blocking is subpar for a center.

No argument there. On the other hand, his post defense is quite solid, he's a good rebounder and decent at blocking out.

This isn't just my opinion;

Very few opinions are so unlikely that only one person shares them.

Against Kendrick Perkins--who is known for his defense anyway--MO was called a "lump of nothing" defensively.

Cherry-picking a game or not is not evidence, its anecdote.

So it's really sad for Okur if conditioning (or strength) is a problem and yet he is still known as a pathetic defender.

Conditioning has not been a problem for Okur after his first season here.

Absolutely hilarious that you would claim that Slowkur's conditioning is acceptable.

Do you have reason to say it isn't? Conditioning is different from speed.

Your defense of Okur's conditioning and your denial of Fesenko's adequate conditioning prior to this year is absolute hogwash and a sign that you are just providing blind, reflexive statements that are short and nonsubstantive.

Do you have reason to say it isn't?

Good. There is hope amidst your delusion. You have acknowledged that he was in improved condition last year, and you acknowledge that he has talent.

I follow the evidence. The evidence indicates his conditioning has improved and that he has talent. No delusion involved.

He was making shots in practice (just like CJ and KK were, btw). Utah needed a backup center.

Hopefully, in his "sophmore" season, now that he's finally looking ready, he'll be used that way.

Again, his weight wasn't holding him back because he wasn't playing enough time to test that weight,

Again, Sloan says otherwise, and I believe Sloan over you. Reapeating this point over and over will not make you more convincing.

And you have continued to confirm your acknowledgement that he was in shape by the middle of last season.

He was in better shape toward the middle of last season, but not as good a shape as he is in today. It's not like conditioning is a bivalued variable.

Millsap could develop (wait; you don't believe in on-court development) with 20-25 MPG. Sloan dropped the ball.

If you were following the team back then, you should be aware that Millsap has been lauded by Sloan for doing everything that was asked of him right from the start. He earned his time before he got it. In that respect, he was the anti-Fesenko. To claim that fesenko deserved the same treatment is ludicrous.

I'll take my arguments over your continued lack of providing anecdote or evidence. Just because you say it enough times doesn't make it true.

Completely correct. My saying it means nothing, I'm not a basketball expert by any stretch of the imagination. That's why I trust the opinions of the experts who see Fesenko almost every day during the season. That does not mean you.

Problem is that he wasn't getting beaten on the court because of conditioning. And Fes--even with his lack of experience, was "timing blocks" at a greater rate than Okur. So if anything, Okur was the more poorly conditioned (and poorly focused defensively) on the court.

No, Okur is merely less talented at those aspect than Fesenko. Talent and conditioning are not the same thing.
 
Could we get a Mod to turn this thread into a sticky?
We need this at the top, so we can discuss it all season.
 
That particular quote is actually from Hollinger. His analysis tends to be highly PER centric and Fesenko's play doesn't translate well on those terms. I think this is an instance where Hollinger's method shows its flaws.

Hollinger has moderated that analysis in the past when it's known that a player is a defensive stud (Bruce Bowen never translated well on PER either) but I doubt he knows about Fesenko.

From what I remember about the playoff Fess was very effective both defensively and offensively against Denver. Against LA he struggled to score as the Lakers didn't allow him to get all the way to the basket. Defensively he still was somewhat effective.

All that said he has shown more consistency and skill this year. I have big hopes for him.
 
You think that with the three main combatants, this won't be discussed all season?

I have completely given up hope that I will stop seeing this thread on the first page of threads. Even if the thread was locked it would be resurrected through the ashes like the phoenix. Its like Groundhog Day, I feel like I should be using this time to learn to play the piano, or do ice sculptures.

I give up, and only request that all arguments from here on out about Fes, bump this thread, instead of starting a new one so I dont get duped into reading it again.
 
I have completely given up hope that I will stop seeing this thread on the first page of threads. Even if the thread was locked it would be resurrected through the ashes like the phoenix. Its like Groundhog Day, I feel like I should be using this time to learn to play the piano, or do ice sculptures.

I give up, and only request that all arguments from here on out about Fes, bump this thread, instead of starting a new one so I dont get duped into reading it again.

Any chance we can get it retitled to "DON'T READ THIS THREAD!"
 
It's always nice when you have a selection ya can make, ya know? If, for example, Fess had 13 baskets and 14 turnovers, I can stress that he made some baskets, and ignore the turnovers, if I want to make him sound better. Likewise, I can talk about only the turnovers, and ignore the baskets if I want to make him sound worse. If he made 5 baskets, while missin 11, there again I have a choice of what to emphasize, which is a nice luxury. If he has a great game, but makes one mistake, I can just talk about the mistake. If he plays terribly the entire game, but makes one good play, I can just talk about that one play. Whichever way it goes, I can always prove my own conclusions to myself, at least.

That's the way I like it, and that's the way it should be.

I remember a game where Kobe missed a basket, and then, on the other end, Jarron Collins made one, which purty much proves what I been sayin from the git-go: Jarron is better than Kobe.

I think you're missing the main thrust of my point about what Hollinger's primary metric is and that certain players who we can verify are highly useful by watching the games are undervalued by that metric. Hollinger himself has acknowledged that PER significantly undervalues defensive players.

For instance I don't think anyone would argue the following players are or were significantly below average "replacement-level" value players that could be easily substituted with a D-League scrub and the team would see no difference, but that's what PER would tell you:

Bruce Bowen
Thabo Sefolosha
Shane Battier
Robert Horry
Derek Fisher (ok, well maybe Derek Fisher)

Similarly, do you believe that Marresse Speights and Brendan Wright have shown themselves to be among the very best at their positions? PER has made that judgment in the past.

This isn't about cherry-picking your sources, it's about keeping in mind what those sources measure, and Fesenko has had so few minutes that he's never even hit the minimum minutes qualification to even show up in Hollinger's PER tables before.

The dirty secret about Fesenko's minutes is that the reason everyone has made a big deal about his playoff playing time is that those 9 games in a little over two weeks constituted 22% of the total amount of playing time he's had in his entire NBA career and more playing time than he had in the whole of 2008-2009. The large strides he made in those games was apparent and obvious. That's why it's not totally unreasonable to wonder "what might have been" if he'd received even modest minutes (say around 600 a year) over the previous couple of seasons.


I'm equally skeptical of +/- for a variety of different reasons, but I think it's useful in certain situations like when you've had a fairly consistent group of players play together across a number of seasons.
 
I think you're missing the main thrust of my point about what Hollinger's primary metric is and that certain players who we can verify are highly useful by watching the games are undervalued by that metric.

Naw, I aint missin your point, Kicky. I agree with it, and have made it myself in the past. I have no clue what kinda ratin Hollinger's PER would give to Memo and the Paperboy, but it aint really relevant. Fess was clearly more better than both of them last year.
 
Bump

Just kidding. But seriously though. Find it funny that you quote ESPN and Hollinger as proof that Fes sucked or make statements that Fes was always a poorer choice than Okur but yet you ignore Hollinger's own suggestions about which rotations to use. Hint. Fes was always in the top, most-effective rotations.

Next up. Two words. Demarcus Cousins. (spanked by Fes). Wait, another two words, 12 6. Tied as high scorer for team and led in rebounds.

Whatever peeps. I'm just happy he's doing well. Oh, and I love continuing this thread. (multiple groans heard in the background from YB85, One Brow, Hopper and others) :cool:
 
It's good Fesenko is finally dominating rookies in the preseason.

Fesenko was only in one rotation (I presume you mean 5-man group) that played over 20 minutes last season, according to 82games.com, so you don't really have reliable statistics there.

Everyone in this thread is glad Fesenko is doing well.
 
Fesenko was only in one rotation (I presume you mean 5-man group) that played over 20 minutes last season, according to 82games.com, so you don't really have reliable statistics there.

Everyone in this thread is glad Fesenko is doing well.

I take it you mean 20 minutes a YEAR, and not 20 minutes a game, eh, Eric?

Hell, yeah, I'm delighted that Fess is much improved. Just lke any "hater" would be, I spoze.

The onliest real thang that puzzles me is how to account for the vast improvement over the course of the off-season when Fess didn't even play in no NBA games this summer, ya know? It really aint even possible. Ya hafta immediately suspect that Fess's apparent improvement is just an optical illusion, or sumthin. It probly aint real and probly aint gunna last.
 
Dead on.

I take it you mean 20 minutes a YEAR, and not 20 minutes a game, eh, Eric?

Hell, yeah, I'm delighted that Fess is much improved. Just lke any "hater" would be, I spoze.

The onliest real thang that puzzles me is how to account for the vast improvement over the course of the off-season when Fess didn't even play in no NBA games this summer, ya know? It really aint even possible. Ya hafta immediately suspect that Fess's apparent improvement is just an optical illusion, or sumthin. It probly aint real and probly aint gunna last.

You finally got it. Either he fizzles and you are right or he continues his climb and IGS and myself are right and he was already there but just needed the chance/minutes to prove it.
 
IGS and myself are right and he was already there but just needed the chance/minutes to prove it.

You haven't made your position on this completely clear, Go4, so I'll leave you out of it. But that aint S2's position (at least not on any consistent basis). S2's recurrent theme (when it suits his purposes, anyway, although I will concede that he commits himself to contradictory claims, as it suits him) is that Fess did NOT develop last year, because Sloan prevented him from doin so. What else could explain his failure to completely dominate the entire front line of the Lakers?
 
I take it you mean 20 minutes a YEAR, and not 20 minutes a game, eh, Eric?

Hell, yeah, I'm delighted that Fess is much improved. Just lke any "hater" would be, I spoze.

The onliest real thang that puzzles me is how to account for the vast improvement over the course of the off-season when Fess didn't even play in no NBA games this summer, ya know? It really aint even possible. Ya hafta immediately suspect that Fess's apparent improvement is just an optical illusion, or sumthin. It probly aint real and probly aint gunna last.

Yes, but you see the optical illusion of his improvement will lead to actual playing time, which as has been well established always leads to an actual improvement. So it all works out in the end.
 
Yes, but you see the optical illusion of his improvement will lead to actual playing time, which as has been well established always leads to an actual improvement. So it all works out in the end.

Thanks, eh, Game!? Ya just changed my expectations about Fess from pessimistic to optimistic.
 
Hopper, not trying to troll, but I have a question. Was your mother of the rotund variety?
 
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