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Way too early prediction poll for 21-22 regular season

What will our record be in the regular season for 21-22?

  • <41 wins

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 41-45 wins

    Votes: 1 2.2%
  • 46-50 wins

    Votes: 1 2.2%
  • 51-55 wins

    Votes: 11 23.9%
  • 56-60 wins

    Votes: 22 47.8%
  • 61-65 wins

    Votes: 9 19.6%
  • >65 wins

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1st or 2nd seed

    Votes: 19 41.3%
  • 3rd or 4th seed

    Votes: 7 15.2%
  • 5th seed or less

    Votes: 3 6.5%

  • Total voters
    46
This is a matchup I think we still need to roster plan for. If we're weak on specific perimeter defense, they're the one team with two guys on the perimeter you've got to account for. It's a shame we weren't open with actually using Shaq, because it would be nice to bring him back.
Don't do this to me... I kid I kid. I think it was a "we think Oni is better than Shaq" thing... but I just think Shaq is a much better defender. I still think he finds a home eventually. I just think you have to view him as an offball wing who can drive opportunistically but needs to sit in the corner and just focus on defense.

I'm cool with Oni for another year but would be looking for a bargain in the leftover bin of FA.
 
I picked 51-55 wins but perhaps lean closer to 56-60. Gun to my head, we finish with 57 wins and the 2 seed.

I expect a regression. We were amazing last year. Will Don take another leap? Will Mike have another all-time great season for him? Will Royce shoot so well again? Will Clarkson AND Joe be so good they’re BOTH 6th man of the year candidates? Will we be so healthy? Sure, we had some injuries at season’s end, but relatively speaking, we were very healthy. Moreover, teams can gun for us now. We can’t sneak up on anybody. Knowing all this, I think we finish with somewhere between 55-58 wins.
 
Don't do this to me... I kid I kid. I think it was a "we think Oni is better than Shaq" thing... but I just think Shaq is a much better defender. I still think he finds a home eventually. I just think you have to view him as an offball wing who can drive opportunistically but needs to sit in the corner and just focus on defense.

I'm cool with Oni for another year but would be looking for a bargain in the leftover bin of FA.
Even before we signed him, nobody thought anything about him playing 1. That was exclusively where Quin played him. Maybe Quin didn't get the memo that you don't need to play him at the 1, and didn't realize he could be used just as a wing.
 
Even before we signed him, nobody thought anything about him playing 1. That was exclusively where Quin played him. Maybe Quin didn't get the memo that you don't need to play him at the 1, and didn't realize he could be used just as a wing.
I mean he just never played outside of garbage time. He became the default garbage time 1. I think they just thought it was Oni's turn.
 
Even before we signed him, nobody thought anything about him playing 1. That was exclusively where Quin played him. Maybe Quin didn't get the memo that you don't need to play him at the 1, and didn't realize he could be used just as a wing.
This is just one of mannnnnny reasons why I can’t get my hopes up for lineup experimentations.
 
This is just one of mannnnnny reasons why I can’t get my hopes up for lineup experimentations.
This is the biggest variable and the one I'm most skeptical about. JZ did his job for the most part. Enough so that the blood isn't on his hands. I have a larger post about Quin that I've been talking about posting for a month or two now... but can't get up the motivation to do it. It's long. It's hard to say there's any evidence there that things will change when he stood there and watched us lose 4 games in a row. Yes, the players are ultimately on the floor losing those games, but at that level it becomes under the purview of the coach.
 
This is the biggest variable and the one I'm most skeptical about. JZ did his job for the most part. Enough so that the blood isn't on his hands. I have a larger post about Quin that I've been talking about posting for a month or two now... but can't get up the motivation to do it. It's long. It's hard to say there's any evidence there that things will change when he stood there and watched us lose 4 games in a row. Yes, the players are ultimately on the floor losing those games, but at that level it becomes under the purview of the coach.
I think my hope is kind of centered on the fractured relationship with DL and Quin. I hope that JZ and Quin have a good enough working relationship that these acquisitions were made with Quin "on board" with trying a bit.

I'm also a little hopeful based on what happened with Bud this year. He was the classic no adjustment guy and is Quin's hero (assumption but they worked together). So maybe seeing that flexibility and the options he now has that Quin gets in his bag a bit more.

Its not rational for me to be super hopeful things change but I think the DL Quin relationship has been rough for a while and toxic in the last couple years. Quin likely was also in a power struggle because of it... so squeezing every win made sense. We shall see because as you said the blood is on Quin's hands if he doesn't adjust now.
 
I think my hope is kind of centered on the fractured relationship with DL and Quin. I hope that JZ and Quin have a good enough working relationship that these acquisitions were made with Quin "on board" with trying a bit.

I'm also a little hopeful based on what happened with Bud this year. He was the classic no adjustment guy and is Quin's hero (assumption but they worked together). So maybe seeing that flexibility and the options he now has that Quin gets in his bag a bit more.

Its not rational for me to be super hopeful things change but I think the DL Quin relationship has been rough for a while and toxic in the last couple years. Quin likely was also in a power struggle because of it... so squeezing every win made sense. We shall see because as you said the blood is on Quin's hands if he doesn't adjust now.
One thing that will be nice is that, even if Quin doesn't adjust, we don't have to watch him continue to run the same kind of defense with someone who can't protect the rim (Davis, Bradley, Favors, etc.) At the very least he can at least somewhat approximate the strategy. I think that may be underrecognized because people really liking Favors clouded a fair evaluation of that.
 
Unless Don or Rudy goes down for an extended period of time I think we'll win somewhere around 58 games. We need to load manage Conley, Gay, Ingles and maybe even Bogey and Rudy to a certain extent. I'd much rather sacrifice a few regular season wins and be healthy and rested for the playoffs.
 
Not sure I agree with the bolded part. I think Bojan struggled to start the year but it was more about the wrist than anything. I think individually guys did better in bigger roles but the whole was better when the team was fully healthy.

I think you are right the RS won't be much better if at all... but we are way more flexible and better able to handle injury issues. We stayed fairly healthy last year until the end of the RS. We should sacrifice some games in the RS to experiment... play Gay at the 5 for 5-10 minutes a night... supplement the additional 5ish minutes with Whiteside.

The second paragraph is true as well, but my thing is I don't think "that guy" is currently available. Having Gay and Bogey allows us to move one or the other... JC is the guy I think that makes the most sense to move to improve defensively now that you have Conley under contract... Butler and Forrest likely can soak up some minutes... you have Ingles, Gay, and MAYBE Paschall that can create in the second unit... supplement with Conley and Don by staggering here and there. So we can go into the season and wait for that guy to come available (hopefully).

Swapping JC or Bogey for Smart would be helpful to balance stuff out. I can't think of a lot of other guys... maybe RoCo but I think he's a little overrated. He's disruptive but gets cooked individually... he's definitely versatile but I think unless he's a smallball 5 then he's just kinda average overall. There's just not a lot of those super defenders out there... don't think we have the right assets for Lu Dort. I kinda like KCP's defense and think he's actually a little underrated... he may become available this season if Washington flames out.

So I see the need... I don't see the obvious solution... and I'm good rolling with what we have and being opportunistic.

It's definitely the case on paper, the question is what's causing that. Mitchell, Conley, Bogey, Ingles, and Clarkson are the 5 guys who I'd consider key rotation players and scorers/ball handlers. The Jazz are 34-20 when all 5 play and 35-9 when only 4 of them play since we acquired Clarkson. There are a lot of different things that play into this. Conley stunk in 19/20 and Bogey wasn't great to start this year. In general we kinda stink to start every year. I wouldn't put all that on too many mouths to feed, but I do think some of the symptoms are real.

When everyone is healthy it's not possible for everyone to be getting their natural usage rates. You could look at that as a good thing (too much firepower is better than too little), but it hasn't necessarily lead to better or more efficient offense. In fact, there's really isn't a player with a huge jump in efficiency when everyone is healthy. The biggest jumps in efficiency have actually come when someone is out.

My feeling on this is that the offense is probably fine no matter what, but defensively there is a real drop off when guys are less involved on offense. This phenomena is as old as time and has been the case for every level of player. Whether it's the 5th man on the floor or the DPOY like Rudy, if a guy doesn't feel like he's getting involved enough on offense he's not going to play as hard on defense.

This might just be a RS conversation anyways. I don't think our failures on defense are because of a lack of effort. The biggest problem for me is the defensive principles and habits established by Quin and the next problem would be the defensive talent. I think both are big enough issues that it will be incredibly difficult to succeed defensively if either persist.

I'm not going to hate on anyone being optimistic, but I'm skeptical because otherwise I'd be putting a lot of faith in Quin to do something that he has never shown any ability or desire to do. His defense has always been the defense and I do not believe it's a coincidence that we've had back to back historic defensive failures under his guidance. Media and interviews are typically BS, but we've heard nothing to imply that he's wanting to change and more to the contrary that we were just unlucky.

The only crumb of information that indicates that we are trying to be more versatile is Rudy Gay playing 5, but to me that will be an unmitigated disaster because we still have 2-4 guys on the court who can't guard a chair. The problem with guarding 5 out was not that we couldn't matchup correctly to their size (or lack thereof), it was that we can't match up to them in individual matchups and have zero ability to play help defense and rotate outside of Gobert.

The defensive personnel issue is also tough because, like you said, I'm not sure that move is out there. I'm hoping MEM has a really hard time scoring this season with Jonas and wants to move Anderson for Bogey/Clarkson. Beyond that, I'm not seeing a ton of potential there, but we need that guy. Rudy Gay might have been good value at TPMLE, but your backup 4/5 whose 35 years and also not a defensive specialist isn't going to save you. We need a significant player at the Bogey/Clarkson level who really defends.
 
I went with 61-65 wins based solely on my belief the Jazz didn’t peak this past season. I think dropping the series to the Clippers will translate into hunger and a better record in the upcoming season.
 
It's definitely the case on paper, the question is what's causing that. Mitchell, Conley, Bogey, Ingles, and Clarkson are the 5 guys who I'd consider key rotation players and scorers/ball handlers. The Jazz are 34-20 when all 5 play and 35-9 when only 4 of them play since we acquired Clarkson. There are a lot of different things that play into this. Conley stunk in 19/20 and Bogey wasn't great to start this year. In general we kinda stink to start every year. I wouldn't put all that on too many mouths to feed, but I do think some of the symptoms are real.

When everyone is healthy it's not possible for everyone to be getting their natural usage rates. You could look at that as a good thing (too much firepower is better than too little), but it hasn't necessarily lead to better or more efficient offense. In fact, there's really isn't a player with a huge jump in efficiency when everyone is healthy. The biggest jumps in efficiency have actually come when someone is out.

My feeling on this is that the offense is probably fine no matter what, but defensively there is a real drop off when guys are less involved on offense. This phenomena is as old as time and has been the case for every level of player. Whether it's the 5th man on the floor or the DPOY like Rudy, if a guy doesn't feel like he's getting involved enough on offense he's not going to play as hard on defense.

This might just be a RS conversation anyways. I don't think our failures on defense are because of a lack of effort. The biggest problem for me is the defensive principles and habits established by Quin and the next problem would be the defensive talent. I think both are big enough issues that it will be incredibly difficult to succeed defensively if either persist.

I'm not going to hate on anyone being optimistic, but I'm skeptical because otherwise I'd be putting a lot of faith in Quin to do something that he has never shown any ability or desire to do. His defense has always been the defense and I do not believe it's a coincidence that we've had back to back historic defensive failures under his guidance. Media and interviews are typically BS, but we've heard nothing to imply that he's wanting to change and more to the contrary that we were just unlucky.

The only crumb of information that indicates that we are trying to be more versatile is Rudy Gay playing 5, but to me that will be an unmitigated disaster because we still have 2-4 guys on the court who can't guard a chair. The problem with guarding 5 out was not that we couldn't matchup correctly to their size (or lack thereof), it was that we can't match up to them in individual matchups and have zero ability to play help defense and rotate outside of Gobert.

The defensive personnel issue is also tough because, like you said, I'm not sure that move is out there. I'm hoping MEM has a really hard time scoring this season with Jonas and wants to move Anderson for Bogey/Clarkson. Beyond that, I'm not seeing a ton of potential there, but we need that guy. Rudy Gay might have been good value at TPMLE, but your backup 4/5 whose 35 years and also not a defensive specialist isn't going to save you. We need a significant player at the Bogey/Clarkson level who really defends.
That's interesting. I'd want to do a deeper dive to see who was 100% at the time and what the schedule was like before diagnosing it as a problem. I honestly kind of like it because its rare for a team to have the top 5 creator/offensive guys healthy for large stretches of the season. Kinda lets me know we have a fair amount of offensive versatility.

With Gay at the 5 its a big arrow in the quiver to me. He also provides the help playing big. One of our issues was rebounding and he can share the floor with Rudy and really help out there. He can take a turn on the big 4s like Morris, Lebron, etc. He's not a fix all solution for sure. He also provides an option if we move Bogey for the defensive piece/pieces we lack. IF Gay and Paschall work out you have some pieces to maneuver with.

The easiest piece to move by himself is JC. Simply swapping JC for Smart and you are looking about as versatile as you can be with two small all star guards and an all-star non-shooting center. If you swapped JC for Eric Gordon and he stayed healthy I think I like that squad better too... I think the additions we made this year should address part of our issues and hopefully allow us some flexibility to make the second pivot move if something good becomes available.
 
I said 56 - 60 wins. I think the Jazz will be a top-2 seed along with Phoenix again. Jazz could come in at 62+ wins with exceptional health.

Overall, the Jazz are a better team this year than last:
- Mitchell took another step forward after the All Star break last year.
- Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside upgrade our 2nd unit due to their rebounding alone, but also due to their defense.
- Jazz are stronger at backup PG this year, compared to rookie Forrest and Shaq Harrison at the start of last season.
- Jazz will find a way to make Eric Paschall an effective scoring option by mid-season. If he gets the open looks that Royce and Georges have been getting, he'll do something positive with them.
 
Stupid question but how many games are being played this year? Is it back to the normal 82 game season?
 
That's interesting. I'd want to do a deeper dive to see who was 100% at the time and what the schedule was like before diagnosing it as a problem. I honestly kind of like it because its rare for a team to have the top 5 creator/offensive guys healthy for large stretches of the season. Kinda lets me know we have a fair amount of offensive versatility.

With Gay at the 5 its a big arrow in the quiver to me. He also provides the help playing big. One of our issues was rebounding and he can share the floor with Rudy and really help out there. He can take a turn on the big 4s like Morris, Lebron, etc. He's not a fix all solution for sure. He also provides an option if we move Bogey for the defensive piece/pieces we lack. IF Gay and Paschall work out you have some pieces to maneuver with.

The easiest piece to move by himself is JC. Simply swapping JC for Smart and you are looking about as versatile as you can be with two small all star guards and an all-star non-shooting center. If you swapped JC for Eric Gordon and he stayed healthy I think I like that squad better too... I think the additions we made this year should address part of our issues and hopefully allow us some flexibility to make the second pivot move if something good becomes available.
Yeah...like I said there are a lot of factors that lead to the discrepancy. But it is a huge discrepancy and I think there are legitimate problems that come about when guys don't get the touches they want. I also think that there's simply diminishing returns when you have too much of the same thing.

I don't think Gay the 5 is a huge factor if I'm being honest. I suppose it can be huge difference in the bench minutes when Gobert is sitting. I definitely prefer Gay to Favors or Whiteside against 5 out...but I've never seen Gobert as the weak point and IMO he is the most critical player we have against 5 out. He covers more space than anyone in the league and that's what you need most when the other team spreads out.

I do like Gay as the 4 next to Gobert. He can really provide value as a strong rebounder and guy who can cover space off the ball. I've even been talking myself into him finishing games over Bogey for this reason. But as the 5....yeah I think we're toast as long as our overall perimeter defense is toast. It won't be Gay's fault, but simply matching up with 5 smalls is something that is being overrated IMO.

We really need to make a trade IMO. I love Smart for JC or Bogey for Anderson. I think the moves we made are great if they open up a future trade for a defensive player. As it stands right now, I don't think we've really addressed our issues with fit, but we have gotten more talented.
 
Ok so it looks like we are done making moves this off-season.

Players out:

Morgan
Niang
Oni

Players in

Whiteside
Gay
Paschall
Butler

Staying

Conley
Brantley

Where does that get us this next season?

Last season we ended up first in the NBA, the only time in franchise history we were alone with the top record (the only other time we had the 1 seed we shared the top record with the bulls, but we had the tie-breaker). Our record of 52-20 was good enough to be on pace for 59 wins in a regular 82-game season.

So did we plug the holes? Did we do enough to get much better than we were? Were the moves focused on the post-season but won't really help us in the regular season? Where do we end up in the regular season next year?

Please choose the # of wins you think we will end up with and the possible seeding. 1 vote in each section.
I think there is still some uncertainty at the end of our bench/two way players. so the roster isn't quite set, but nothing that should affect the main rotation. I'm also hoping for an offense for defense type trade, but don't expect that would happen until the trade deadline.

We're pretty much the same team as last year, but hopefully a little deeper. I think last year we were on pace for a 60 win 82 game season. If our injury luck is similar I would expect the same. 60 wins historically gets you a 1-2 seed.
 
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