The real problem next year won't be the minutes available to the Big Three and Burks, and it won't be lack of talent.
The biggest problem that will kill us is Favors and Kanter being in foul trouble and if we start the pg we draft. I could see us winning a lot of home games IF they stayed out of foul trouble. With a young team, we will lose most away games.
In 2012, away teams lost 58% of the time. If there are 41 away games, this means most teams go 17-24 on the road. With a young team, built around two players that do and can get into foul trouble, let's say they only win 10 games on the road next year. This is very realistic because Favors will probably be in foul trouble a lot to start the year, and a young, rookie pg will probably cost us 5 wins with mistakes down the stretch (though, I do think this is an area that Larkin would excel at. I would LOVE to draft MCW and Larkin).
Home teams win an average of 24 games at home. That puts the record at 24-17. Again, young team, foul trouble, no "true" offensive star, I put our home wins at 20 games.
That puts us at 30 wins. 30 wins puts us in line for the 10th pick. NOW, if you have Favors or Kanter or Hayward go down for 5 games, you most likely lose all 5 games with how thin the bench is. That drops your wins down to 25. That puts you in line for the 4th pick. The Jazz could EASILY finish between 4-10 next year.
If the Jazz start the pg they draft, I don't see them being better than the 10th pick next year. A weak bench and young pg will guarantee you a top 10 pick.
