So the GM should only make moves if and when they're palatable to the fanbase and/or he's forced into them? I'd rather have a GM who's forward looking, and is willing to make the right moves even when they're unpopular. There are a couple other juicy bits in this section that I'll return to later.
I agree with the sentiment and in general believe that strong risky moves ahead of the curve is the way to go for rebuilding franchises. Look at what Lacob and Myers have done with the Warriors! They signed Curry on a relatively bad contract at the time(because he just had 2 serious injuries). Now this contract is the best contract in basketball. They were booed at the Mullins jersey retirement after they traded Monta Ellis. How did that one turn out? Now they have a top 5 center in the league. They drafted a top 3 SG in the league... and after a successful year last year... they parted ways with their coach when they felt tensions in the locker room and put in charge a rookie coach.
The Jazz received nothing for Al and Millsap. The Jazz had two full seasons after Jerry quit and Deron was traded to try to get something for Al and/or Paul. Instead, KOC and DL did nothing. Again, I'll return to this in a second.
Absolutely. This was one of the stupidest moves we could have made. Wait on them to fight for the 8th seed with no outlook at ever contending and letting their contracts just run out and letting them go for nothing. That was stupid.(and BTW, as some old threads here show - most people were for doing exactly that - go for the 8th seed and don't care about losing assets or losing opportunity to gain assets in the long run).
This is the good part:
Let's assume I agree with your assertions that teams can't contend without superstars, that Gordo, Favs, Burks and Kanter aren't ever going to be superstars, and that the Jazz can't acquire a superstar through either trade or free agency. Effectively, if I understand correctly, you're arguing that the only thing that matters is building a contender, and the only way to build a contender is to land a superstar in the draft.
If that's the case, what's the point in signing young players who make the team better to bloated contracts that reduce their trade value (for more picks)?
Once again, if that's the case, what's the point in signing young players who make the team better to bloated contracts that reduce their trade value (for more picks)?
The point is that you won't be losing them for nothing. Would you rather we let Gordon go, or matched? Would you rather sign Favors to 12m/year or let him go? Or traded them? What I would guess is that the FO have determined that those are long-term pieces(maybe they believe some of them have all-star potential too) for the team and they were willing to sign them to whatever contract the market or negotiations determine. I think they are not sold on Enes as a long term prospect in Utah and that's the reason they didn't sign him. That's pretty much the only reason we sign new contracts(especially the big ones) - because we have determined that we want those players in the long run and we don't want to lose them(or have to pay more in RFA). When a team signs a 4 year deal they are not signing it so they can trade the guy, they are signing him so they can keep him. If you want to trade somebody, you trade them before the time for signing new contracts comes. In other words, if you don't want to sign Burks to 10 mil, Favors to 12 and Gordon to 15, you either let them go for free, or trade them before their contract is up. How much do you think we could get for expiring Gordon, Burks and Favors? Throw in wild guesses. Because according to some sources(don't know if true or not) #5 + Favors (+ Burks?) were not enough for #1 or #2 this year...
You seem to be arguing that it's a good idea to move your picks from the 12-16 range to the 5-10 range, but not a good idea to move picks from the 5-10 range to the 1-3 range.
Three key questions follow from the above:
1. Do Gordo, Favs, Burks and Kanter improve the team relative to dleague and other marginal players?
2. Which of Gordo, Favs, Burks and Kanter haven't peaked in terms of picks they can net the Jazz in a trade?
3. Isn't it far more likely to find a superstar in the 1-3 range than the 5-10 range?
I think those four are better than marginal players, and thus improve the Jazz record, which will hurt the Jazz's draft position. I think those players could have been traded for more before they signed their contracts than now (Favors may be the exception). It's absolutely far more likely to find a superstar in the 1-3 range than in the 5-10 range.
Of course it's more likely to find the star in 1-3 picks. But along with looking for that star we should be gathering pieces to surround that star. Unless you want to go the Philly's way? I don't know... I wonder. Would the Jazz fans be willing to go the Philly's way? Do you like their team with their possibilities and structure more than ours? Would you rather have Favors+Gordon+Burks+Exum+whatever pick we get this year, or Embiid, Noel, MCW, Saric + whatever pick they get this year? Would you be willing to go through several season with practically non-NBA-level basketball 10-15 wins? And at what level is your confidence that this would yield any success?
With all that said, you should be arguing that the Jazz should have unloaded Al, Millsap, Gordo, Burks, Favors and Kanter when the return, in terms of picks and hurting the Jazz record, was peaking. Unfortunately, the Jazz haven't landed a top-3 pick since Deron was traded, and probably won't get one this year. Instead, DL/the FO/ownership has opted for half measures, resigning players who improve the team but will never lead the team to a championship to large contracts. It's a worse plan than crafting competitive teams that top out at ~50 wins.
That's the cost-benefit analysis you have to run. To me the choices are really two - multi-season-tank(philly style) and continuous rebuild(Jazz style)
Philly style:
+Get a several top 3 level picks, greater chance for a superstar
+Get some more first round picks by getting rid off any slightly valuable player(Jrue Holiday, Thad Young) who might win you some games
+Sell your cap space for other picks(most likely seconds and late firsts)
-You don't keep the pieces that might help your team be complete once you get your superstar(the Thad Youngs and Jrue Holidays of the world)
-Establish losing culture
-Alienate and frustrate fanbase
-Damage the reputation of the team
Utah style:
+Get 4-5 lottery picks, some might be in the top 5, but most likely none will be top 3. Less of a chance to land a superstar than "Philly style"
+You keep your young players who have shown promise even if they are not superstars(Favors, Burks) and keep developing them into the best players they can be so when you get your superstar, he will have good team around him to play with
+Accumulate assets through selling your capspace(mostly late firsts and second rounders)
-Less of a chance to land a super star than Philly-style, more of a chance for botched rebuild.
-Still frustrate the fanbase, but nowhere near the levels of a Philly.
BTW, even though I agree that 1-3 picks are more likely to get you a superstar, it is by no means a given and I think it is much closer than a lot of people would think.
Atlanta - no superstar
Boston - Rajon Rondo (#21)
Brooklyn - Deron Williams(#3), Kevin Garnet(#5), ?Joe Johnson(#10)?
Charlotte - no superstar
Chicago - Derrick Rose(#1), Pau Gasol(#3)
Cleveland - Kyrie Irving(#1), Kevin Love(#5), LeBron James(#1)
Dallas - Dirk Nowitzki(#9)
Denver - no superstar
Detroit - no superstar
Golden State-Steph Curry(#7), ?Klay Thompson(#9)?
Houston - Dwight Howard(#1), James Harden(#3)
Indiana - Paul George(#10)
L.A. Clippers- Blake Griffin(#1), Chris Paul(#4)
L.A. Lakers - Kobe Bryant (#13)
Memphis - Marc Gasol(#48), Vince Carter(#5), Zach Randolph(#19)
Miami - Dwayne Wade(#5), Chris Bosh(#4)
Milwaukee - no superstar
Minnesota - no superstar
New Orleans- Anthony Davis(#1)
New York - Carmelo Anthony(#3), Amare Stoudemire(#9)
Oklahoma City- Kevin Durant(#2), Russell Westbrook(#5)
Orlando - no superstar
Philadelphia - no superstar
Phoenix - no superstar
Portland - LeMarcus Aldrige(#2), Damian Lillard(#6)
Sacramento - DeMarcus Cousins(#5)
San Antonio - Tim Duncan(#1), Tony Parker(#28)
Toronto - DeMar DeRozan(#9)
Utah - no superstar
Washington - John Wall(#1), Paul Pierce(#10)
You can probably argue with some names here and say they are not superstars, but in general I selected them by either multiple allstar appearances or for being up and coming stars and having a single all-star appearance. I might have missed some, but you get my point - there are 36 "superstars" in the league in my list. Here's the distribution by picks:
1-3: 14
4-6: 9
7-10: 8
11-30: 4
31-60: 1
Much closer around the top than one might have thought.