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Where SHOULD the Jazz finish this year?: Demonstrate your tanking expertise

Where do the Jazz need to finish this year to get one of the top two picks? (Choose two)

  • Total voters
    31
  • This poll will close: .
I

idiot

Well-Known Member
The main reason to tank is to get a player who is likely to become at least an All-Pro (we seem to do well enough without tanking at getting good players below this level).

This is looking more and more like a 2-player draft, if this is the goal. While other players have potential, consensus seems to be suggesting that only Flagg and Harper are likely to have as much as a 50% chance of reaching all-Pro status. So you might argue that the tank will have been for naught if we don't get one of them.

Show your tanking bona fides, and prove that Danny Ainge needs to hire you, by correctly choosing where the Jazz need to finish to get one the top two draft picks. Special RC Buford Award for the JazzFanzer who identifies both.

Lottery odds can be found here.
 
Either I don't understand the question or you are just trolling. Obviously there is no way to guarantee a top 2 pick and the bottom 3 teams all have the same best odds at a top 2 pick.
 
Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
Am I missing something? Why would any of you idiots want anything less than the worst record?
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If you think the worst record is going to guarantee Flagg or Harper (which is all I'm asking about here), go ahead and pick that option. You'll be at 14% odds of being right (28% if you choose both 1 & 2, since I've asked you to choose two options).

SoberasHotRod said:
Either I don't understand the question or you are just trolling. Obviously there is no way to guarantee a top 2 pick and the bottom 3 teams all have the same best odds at a top 2 pick.
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Not a troll here. Just more of a (hopefully fun) contest, similar to picking the western conference order of finish before the season begins. Of course, probably most people will get it wrong, but that's because there's no good way of guaranteeing the type of player we yearn for with the lotto as it currently exists.

So this is just something to see if you can forecast whatever version of good luck this year's lotto is going to take.

(And maybe just a little bit of a tangible reminder about how much good luck is needed for the tank really pay off.)
 
idiot said:
Not a troll here. Just more of a (hopefully fun) contest, similar to picking the western conference order of finish before the season begins. Of course, probably most people will get it wrong, but that's because there's no good way of guaranteeing the type of player we yearn for with the lotto as it currently exists.

So this is just something to see if you can forecast whatever version of good luck this year's lotto is going to take.

(And maybe just a little bit of a tangible reminder about how much good luck is needed for the tank really pay off.)
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Ok this was not clear to me. So you are asking for us to predict which draft positions get a top 2 pick in the draft this year, correct?
 
Ideally the worst so you get no worse than the 4th spot. If the Jazz likely have the 6th or 7th then the worst possible position is 9 or 10. Of course the percentages are in play as well but having the spot to get no worse than 4 would be great

For the Jazz they have to sabotage many things that they have been praised about in the past. Lose on trades, don't draft well, don't coach well and don't develop players. Or you have to sit the most talented players. Plus you have other teams who want to tank as well. The Jazz are in a no mans land and probably will get talent in the draft they have to develop.
 
whatthe said:
Ideally the worst so you get no worse than the 4th spot. If the Jazz likely have the 6th or 7th then the worst possible position is 9 or 10. Of course the percentages are in play as well but having the spot to get no worse than 4 would be great

For the Jazz they have to sabotage many things that they have been praised about in the past. Lose on trades, don't draft well, don't coach well and don't develop players. Or you have to sit the most talented players. Plus you have other teams who want to tank as well. The Jazz are in a no mans land and probably will get talent in the draft they have to develop.
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I think you're missing the point of the OP.

We all know (or can easily see) what the odds are. I'm just asking for your guess (for bragging rights) as to which position in the final standings are going to end up picking #1 & 2.

(And there is no spot to guarantee getting no worse than the 4th pick).
 
whatthe said:
Ideally the worst so you get no worse than the 4th spot. If the Jazz likely have the 6th or 7th then the worst possible position is 9 or 10. Of course the percentages are in play as well but having the spot to get no worse than 4 would be great

For the Jazz they have to sabotage many things that they have been praised about in the past. Lose on trades, don't draft well, don't coach well and don't develop players. Or you have to sit the most talented players. Plus you have other teams who want to tank as well. The Jazz are in a no mans land and probably will get talent in the draft they have to develop.
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Go tell Detroit, who had (by far) the worst record and picked 5th both last draft and Wemby draft.

Also worst record dropping to 5th is actually just cointoss odds away. 6th dropping to 10th has only like 1 in 1000 chance of happening.

The expected draft position with worst record is 3.7. Expected draft position at 5th is 5.0. So dropping 4 positions in the standings gains you only 1.3 expected positions in the draft.
 
The Jazz have some talent to win games the rest of the season. It's up to Ainge and Hardy to pull on the reins to keep that from happening.
 
I went with 5th worst as we'll find a way to **** it up.

We must finish top-3 so we qualify for that 14% chance of the 1st overall!
 
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