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Which Rookie Do You Want for Donovan?

Knicks give up the 1st overall pick in a package for Donovan. Who are you selecting?

  • Chet Holmgren

  • Paolo Banchero

  • Jaden Ivey

  • Jabari Smith

  • Other

Results are only viewable after voting.
fishonjazz said:
Why do you want them to get some luck?
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Bawse Dawg said:
So they can trade the pick to us
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They are the rumored Donovan destination… so them having a valuable trade chip may be what starts a trade convo off. As it sits the #12 pick plus a pile of othe future picks is fairly “meh” but a top 4 pick with some other stuff is something to strongly consider.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
They are the rumored Donovan destination… so them having a valuable trade chip may be what starts a trade convo off. As it sits the #12 pick plus a pile of othe future picks is fairly “meh” but a top 4 pick with some other stuff is something to strongly consider.
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This is how I see it. I don't think he's traded this offseason unless either he A. Requests a trade then it's a case of find the best deal possible regardless of where he wants to be moved to. B. Knicks move into the top 4. I think this is a deal trader Danny goes after even if Donovan doesn't request out.
 
That1UtahFan said:
This is how I see it. I don't think he's traded this offseason unless either he A. Requests a trade then it's a case of find the best deal possible regardless of where he wants to be moved to. B. Knicks move into the top 4. I think this is a deal trader Danny goes after even if Donovan doesn't request out.
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The sell is yeah we are trading a star but we’ll get another one immediately… plus some flexibility… plus the shine is off Donovan so the market will embrace this if we nail it.
 
Chet but wait for a year and get Wembanyama.

Wembanyama is going to be so great.
 
No team is going to trade a top 5 draft pick in this class for a Guy who is a volume scorer and a bad defender..Mitchell most overrated player currently in the NBA
 
so close between jabari, paolo and chet. gun to my head, i probably take jabari. but there is a part of me that thinks keegan should be in that conversation. there will be multiple teams that regret not taking that dude.
 
anyone know the odds of the #1 pick becoming a multi-year all star? I imaging it’s likely higher than the rest of the picks but how does it actually play out?
 
jope said:
anyone know the odds of the #1 pick becoming a multi-year all star? I imaging it’s likely higher than the rest of the picks but how does it actually play out?
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That is a more interesting question than I first thought: The answer is ~50% (counting from 2000).

I think the better question is what are the odds that a 1st tier NBA player/legit superstar/perennial MVP candidate/top-10 player is drafted in the top-3*? Cuz Mitchell isn't that and won't be that either. A bit of a one-in-hand vs two-in-the-bush kind of scenario, but the Jazz would not be weighing this if there weren't valid concerns about the longterm prospects of keeping him (his best teammates are set to age-out soon, multi-year rumors leaking that he's got a foot out the door, friction between his best teammate).

All-in-all, I think this is the valid returning value on a Mitchell trade.
 
NUMBERICA said:
That is a more interesting question than I first thought: The answer is ~50% (counting from 2000).

I think the better question is what are the odds that a 1st tier NBA player/legit superstar/perennial MVP candidate/top-10 player is drafted in the top-3*? Cuz Mitchell isn't that and won't be that either. A bit of a one-in-hand vs two-in-the-bush kind of scenario, but the Jazz would not be weighing this if there weren't valid concerns about the longterm prospects of keeping him (his best teammates are set to age-out soon, multi-year rumors leaking that he's got a foot out the door, friction between his best teammate).

All-in-all, I think this is the valid returning value on a Mitchell trade.
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* Calculating this should be inverted: counting how many 1st tier players were drafted top-3 rather than how many of said picks become 1st tier as that is - as any bin would be - a very low number (though, you could do a comparative analysis in this way comparing top-3 picks to lottery, non-lottery 1st, or later).

From the vantage point of how many elite players were drafted top-3 in the last 20 years, let's say that this is the list you're working with
-Lebron James
-Giannis
-Steph Curry
-Kevin Durant
-James Harden (doesn't really belong on the list right this second, but recently enough and for long enough that I would consider him belonging)
-Joel Embiid
-Nikola Jokic
-Kawhi Leonard
-Anthony Davis
-... Luka? (right?)

Well from that group, we have:
Top-3: 6
Lottery: 2
Non-lottery 1st: 1
2nd round and later: 1

You'll get a similar outcome if you swap a player from the list here or there with Jayson Tatum, Chris Paul, or Paul George (I think it falls off after this point).

If you're counting top-3 versus the field, that's probably greater than or equal to 50% (what would be called a full majority, not merely a plurality) of elite talent is drafted in the top 3.
 
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seattlejazzfan said:
so close between jabari, paolo and chet. gun to my head, i probably take jabari. but there is a part of me that thinks keegan should be in that conversation. there will be multiple teams that regret not taking that dude.
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Anything possible but I would be shocked if Keegan is the best player from the class.
 
NUMBERICA said:
* Calculating this should be inverted: counting how many 1st tier players were drafted top-3 rather than how many of said picks become 1st tier as that is - as any bin would be - a very low number (though, you could do a comparative analysis in this way comparing top-3 picks to lottery, non-lottery 1st, or later).

From the vantage point of how many elite players were drafted top-3 in the last 20 years, let's say that this is the list you're working with
-Lebron James
-Giannis
-Steph Curry
-Kevin Durant
-James Harden (doesn't really belong on the list right this second, but recently enough and for long enough that I would consider him belonging)
-Joel Embiid
-Nikola Jokic
-Kawhi Leonard
-Anthony Davis
-... Luka? (right?)

Well from that group, we have:
Top-3: 6
Lottery: 2
Non-lottery 1st: 1
2nd round and later: 1

You'll get a similar outcome if you swap a player from the list here or there with Jayson Tatum, Chris Paul, or Paul George (I think it falls off after this point).

If you're counting top-3 versus the field, that's probably greater than or equal to 50% of elite talent is drafted in the top 3.
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Really great research and thought process. I like it.
 
NUMBERICA said:
That is a more interesting question than I first thought: The answer is ~50% (counting from 2000).

I think the better question is what are the odds that a 1st tier NBA player/legit superstar/perennial MVP candidate/top-10 player is drafted in the top-3*? Cuz Mitchell isn't that and won't be that either. A bit of a one-in-hand vs two-in-the-bush kind of scenario, but the Jazz would not be weighing this if there weren't valid concerns about the longterm prospects of keeping him (his best teammates are set to age-out soon, multi-year rumors leaking that he's got a foot out the door, friction between his best teammate).

All-in-all, I think this is the valid returning value on a Mitchell trade.
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Yeah was definitely more interested on if it’s a risky return of value or not. Thanks for the insight
 
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