Which Will Be Easier: Competing for a Title

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm not dodging anything. IMO in general it doesn't matter... I don't think any particular 3 year span is more likely to be easier. What I will say is... right now there is no team that strikes fear in me like the Bulls used to in the 90s or GSW used to in the late 2010s. So... I guess the question is - what's the likelihood we get one of those teams in the late 2020s? Maybe the chance is non-zero... but I still think the biggest question any team should answer first is the question about the quality of their own team rather than the competition.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm not dodging anything. IMO in general it doesn't matter... I don't think any particular 3 year span is more likely to be easier. What I will say is... right now there is no team that strikes fear in me like the Bulls used to in the 90s or GSW used to in the late 2010s. So... I guess the question is - what's the likelihood we get one of those teams in the late 2020s? Maybe the chance is non-zero... but I still think the biggest question any team should answer first is the question about the quality of their own team rather than the competition.

And what is harder... beating the juggernaut or the game of rock paper scissors we have now. Probably the way it is now. The new CBA makes it hard for us to go back to the juggernaut model unless one player gets super dominant or a situation occurs where a team gets two top 5-10 guys ascending at the same time.

Projecting the difficulty of the next 3 years vs. the 3 years after that is basically guessing. If that is the question. I don't think it gets harder or easier in any real way.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The answer to your second question is that when teams have that guy they don't try to suck. They try to win. We tank right and get a top pick. We draft the dude we hope is The Guy. We build around him assuming he is The Guy. It might fail. So might everything.

I can't think of a team that started to build around a player before he played his first NBA game. If that's really our plan it would be somewhat unprecedented.

It just seems dumb to me to spend 3 years tearing it all down in attempt to draft The Guy to simply give up on that plan (when we have our tankiest team yet in the strongest draft yet) and add Ingram and then just be a team that is good and has no chance at a title and who then either has to spend a ton to keep the middling team together or tear it down again and try to get The Guy again.

We should be able to have an equally tanky team next year and could have an even stronger draft next year.

The only thing you are saying that really makes sense is that we don't want to tank forever or in other words being impatient, which is the same thing people who want to pick up Ingram are being accused of. Is it really that different that you don't want to be bad for 4 years in a row and someone else doesn't want to be bad for 3 years in a row?

 

[fishonjazz]

We should be able to have an equally tanky team next year and could have an even stronger draft next year.

Who are you predicting we trade?

You think the same team but with more experience and a top 5 pick next season and coaches and management changing the gameplan with the idea to build the team up will be the same tanky as this team?
Well, we will just have to agree to disagree. Also, I do think that the Jazz love Lauri and Lauri loves the jazz and both want to be together long term. Every year the pressure to build the team up increases as Lauri ages.
I think this is the last of the tank and then we move on.

Cool think is that sticking with the tank and going after the Brandon Ingrams is way better and easier than going after Brandon Ingram and then going back to the tank again.

Might as well just stick with the plan

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[SoberasHotRod]

Who are you predicting we trade?

You think the same team but with more experience and a top 5 pick next season and coaches and management changing the gameplan with the idea to build the team up will be the same tanky as this team?
Well, we will just have to agree to disagree. Also, I do think that the Jazz love Lauri and Lauri loves the jazz and both want to be together long term. Every year the pressure to build the team up increases as Lauri ages.
I think this is the last of the tank and then we move on.

Cool think is that sticking with the tank and going after the Brandon Ingrams is way better and easier than going after Brandon Ingram and then going back to the tank again.

Might as well just stick with the plan

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

Internal development is a good reason that we hopefully won't be as bad next year, but kind of ironic since you don't seem to factor in internal development in to how good we will be this year. I also think that we could have more pressure from Lauri and fans to be good the following year, so that makes sense, so good points.

I doubt there is a set plan to tank this year and try to be good next year. Like everything with Ainge so far, I think he has an idea of how he wants things to go, but will adjust the plan as needed. If you can't see a strong possibility that we get to next off season and we decide that our best path is to tank again, then I think you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The team is only tanky if you trade Sexton. If you bring Collins off the bench, that may unlock him if he takes it as a challenge and dominates 2nd units.

 

[HermanG]

We should be able to have an equally tanky team next year and could have an even stronger draft next year.

I dont really get how we are gonna be equally tanky. Even if our vets wont develop further, the kids are bound to get better unless we have whiffed on these past few drafts.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I dont really like that this is getting off topic, but it was never really on topic since people wanted to warp it into something it wasnt....

But, do we really not see a path where Taylor Hendricks is as good as Simone was last year? Maybe even better? A lot of fans went into the year thinking Simone was a bum. And even though I thought Simone was very good for the Jazz (and better than his BPM would indicate), his BPM was a -1.6. Not exactly a tough bar to match (and was actually Taylor's BPM last year as well)

Yes, Olynyk's game is basically irreplaceable, but if Walker steps into his role as a starter with a renewed passion and focus, and Collins slots in the 3rd big role, it will be different, but potentially even better. Even when we were winning, there was a sizeable amount of posters lamenting how bad KO was as a defender/rebounder, many did not see his value until we traded him.

And there's just zero way in hell Clarkson is as bad as last year unless the Jazz start him and make him the #2 option again, which if they are focusing on youth/building, isnt going to happen.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Best case (for a tank) is the Jazz are hyper competitive but lose a lot of close games. But I think they are going to be competitive. And when you are competitive some games usually swing your way and that will make it tough to reach this utopia of getting a top 5 pick that so many are hoping for.

Unless you trade Sexton.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

There seems to be a lot riding on the Jazz just playing the rookies an inordinate numbers of minutes in the event everyone else plays super well, but is Hardy really going to do that if the young vets are proving themselves? How weird would that be early in the season to have your coach trot out Collier/Filipowski/Williams if Sexton/Kessler/Lauri are killing it?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And yeah, the Jazz sucked it up last year to squeak into good odds of keeping their pick.

But it was also a year not many teams were doing the blatant tank BS. This year there will be more competition to bottom out when bottoming out really matters.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I dont really get how we are gonna be equally tanky. Even if our vets wont develop further, the kids are bound to get better unless we have whiffed on these past few drafts.

Yeah, that's a good point that I recognized. Although second year guys aren't always much better than rookies, so it's really how much better are Key and Hendricks going to be in their 3rd year than this year. You could kind of make that point this year too though, with how much better is Kessler going to be this year than last year. We'll potentially have 3 rookies again in 2025, so you can also make the argument that we just play the rookies a bunch in 2026 to make the team worse. Our youth should be collectively better next year than this year, but I'm not sure by how much and if it offsets the point of us being able to be bad in 2026.

I did say, "able to" though and the FO can always easily make the team worse.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

There seems to be a lot riding on the Jazz just playing the rookies an inordinate numbers of minutes in the event everyone else plays super well, but is Hardy really going to do that if the young vets are proving themselves? How weird would that be early in the season to have your coach trot out Collier/Filipowski/Williams if Sexton/Kessler/Lauri are killing it?

I can't see Hardy being full on tank for a full year. We really need some help from the schedule makers.

 

[KqWIN]

I dont really like that this is getting off topic, but it was never really on topic since people wanted to warp it into something it wasnt....

But, do we really not see a path where Taylor Hendricks is as good as Simone was last year? Maybe even better? A lot of fans went into the year thinking Simone was a bum. And even though I thought Simone was very good for the Jazz (and better than his BPM would indicate), his BPM was a -1.6. Not exactly a tough bar to match (and was actually Taylor's BPM last year as well)

Yes, Olynyk's game is basically irreplaceable, but if Walker steps into his role as a starter with a renewed passion and focus, and Collins slots in the 3rd big role, it will be different, but potentially even better. Even when we were winning, there was a sizeable amount of posters lamenting how bad KO was as a defender/rebounder, many did not see his value until we traded him.

And there's just zero way in hell Clarkson is as bad as last year unless the Jazz start him and make him the #2 option again, which if they are focusing on youth/building, isnt going to happen.

Of course we see a path. But if you do this thing with every team where you look at everything so optimistically, they all have a path.

 

[KqWIN]

I can't see Hardy being full on tank for a full year.

It won’t be full on tank the entire year, but it also won’t be pedal to the metal win as much as possible for 2/3 of the season. But for that last third they will do the same thing as last year.

We also just don’t have the same options to win if we tried. Half our roster was on the summer league team. He will have to go to youth because the number of vets is significantly lower than previous years.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I can't see Hardy being full on tank for a full year.

If I had to guess, they will give the team a legit shot. If they fail, then Lauri will be on the "Hey, we need you to sit, we arent going to chase for the 10th seed" type of approach.

But if Utah comes out locked in???? I dont see them pulling the plug, unless a team(s) decide they want Clarkson/Collins based off their early season performances. Maybe Utah would be inclined to just offload them, so they wouldnt try to haggle over an asking price outside of 2nds/expirings (but can Danny resist haggling?).

All that being said, I doubt Utah will be that good. I just think it's going to be good enough to where it's going to be more 6-9 seed territory, and that's with blatant end of year tanking.

But I really like Egor Demin. But I dont think Egor Demin is this magical prospect who turns into a top 20 player in 4 years and solves all the Jazz fan's hopes of this mythical player who makes it OK to make winning roster moves.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

It won’t be full on tank the entire year, but it also won’t be pedal to the metal win as much as possible for 2/3 of the season. But for that last third they will do the same thing as last year.

We also just don’t have the same options to win if we tried. Half our roster was on the summer league team. He will have to go to youth because the number of vets is significantly lower than previous years.

The main thing that should help us in the tank race is the fact that we play in the West vs East. We should have 6-10 less winnable games vs all the Eastern conference teams playing each other 3-4 times a year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Jazz land somewhere between 6th and 8th with normal health as is. A key injury and you are bottom 5… same with a key trade. Not ideal and I’d try to game the system more but we are likely bottom 2 in the west unless SA stutters out of the gate. The presence of the play in will entice the East team like Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto, Charlotte to not wrap it up early.

6-8 provides okay odds. Personally I’d move Kessler or Sexton and you’d be set but I don’t know what the offers are out there.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The main thing that should help us in the tank race is the fact that we play in the West vs East. We should have 6-10 less winnable games vs all the Eastern conference teams playing each other 3-4 times a year.

And just the playin race out east. Someone has to be 9/10 and 11/12 won’t be far behind.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If I had to guess, they will give the team a legit shot. If they fail, then Lauri will be on the "Hey, we need you to sit, we arent going to chase for the 10th seed" type of approach.

But if Utah comes out locked in???? I dont see them pulling the plug, unless a team(s) decide they want Clarkson/Collins based off their early season performances. Maybe Utah would be inclined to just offload them, so they wouldnt try to haggle over an asking price outside of 2nds/expirings (but can Danny resist haggling?).

All that being said, I doubt Utah will be that good. I just think it's going to be good enough to where it's going to be more 6-9 seed territory, and that's with blatant end of year tanking.

But I really like Egor Demin. But I dont think Egor Demin is this magical prospect who turns into a top 20 player in 4 years and solves all the Jazz fan's hopes of this mythical player who makes it OK to make winning roster moves.

As currently constructed I think our best and most reasonable expectation is the 6th pick. I'm excited because I think adding the 6th pick from this draft could be a really good player. Obviously I hope we get a better pick than that. Like you, I just have a hard time imaging the front office going in to the off season next year with a team bad enough to get the 6th pick, and thinking now that we have Egor Denim or Hugo Gonzalez, now we're ready to forgo a chance at Boozer/etc. and potentially lose out a 9th pick in the 2026 draft because we put our chips in too soon.