Who will be the starting point guard on opening night?

[Handlogten's Heros]

Could be. I just worry that if Clarkson is the starting point guard Ochai will be the starting shooting guard. I don't think a starting 5 of Clarkson/Ochai/Lauri/Collins/Kessler has nearly enough passing/playmaking.

I think no matter what the arrangement is there will be a mid 1st quick sub for Collins and maybe one other starter. It will be like the Favs/Rudy days. Need to work our way into a bench lineup where Collins/Lauri/KO arrangement where we are 5 out and Collins is the main roll man. I just have no clue how Hardy will do that dance.

 

[fishonjazz]

The #1 Ochai Hater strikes again.

But the reasons you would want to pencil in Ochai starting over Sexton/THT/Keyonte is that he profiles as an ideal 3&D type wing and you need someone out there who can matchup with star 2-guards/wings. If you're rolling with some combo of Dunn/Clarkson/Sexton, how are you matching up with the playoff teams in the West? Seems pretty difficult.

You also need the floor spacing Ochai provides. He has a quick trigger off the catch and can be a real C&S weapon. THT/Dunn are negative floor spacers and Sexton can shoot it when open, but its' really not his game. If we are going to lean in to these athletic bigs, we are going to need spacing.

Agreed. You are talking me into Clarkson/ochai starting.

 

[underdog]

Really good post. Dont disagree with any of the pro/con stuff.

Except he forgot to add “Fun” in his bullet point list for Sexton.

 

[fishonjazz]

You start Dunn and you are playing a starting lineup with 3 non-spacers and it's not like Dunn is a plus creator, so you're just putting more weight on Clarkson/Lauri to operate in bad-space with no one to kick out to. Why not lean into the better shooter?

I mostly agree but Dunn was AMAZING from 3 last year. super small sample no doubt but since we are talking about what ifs (what if ochai takes 7 threes per game and makes over 36% etc), what if Dunn increases his volume without his percentages going down a lot?

 

[fishonjazz]

Maybe Dunn is the next thing I'm super wrong on and he is actually what he showed post- ASB, but I just doubt it. The guy has a career average of -3.1 OBPM and he somehow fluked himself into a really good 24 games.

If the options are somewhat similar, I'd rather lean into developing the young talent and not the 30 year old PG with a 1 year deal.

Good response to my previous post fwiw.

 

[underdog]

I would go with Dunn. He didn’t play a lot of games but clearly showed what he can do. Experienced, plays good defense, likes to facilitate, doesn’t make many mistakes. Keyonte isn’t ready yet, and our other guards - Clarkson, Sexton, and THT - are all similar net-driving players who don’t pass the ball much. Like many have said, our biggest need is to have a PG who can deliver the ball to Lauri, Collins, and Kessler.

 

[fishonjazz]

I would like to see

Dunn
JC
Lauri
Collins
Walker

That is really a solid starting 5. Excellent interior defense, shooting and outright scoring from 3 positions, and 2 and maybe even 3 playmakers on the floor. Sub in KO for Walker for an entirely different look at some point, then bring in the rookies and let them get at it. Could be a fun year really.

Gun to my head, this is my starting lineup in game 1

 

[fishonjazz]

Except he forgot to add “Fun” in his bullet point list for Sexton.

Or he could have used the adjective "vibes" like with clarkson. Sexton has all the "vibes" and fun.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Also... just a reminder Sexton started 15 games last year and was 20.5 ppg and 6 assists per 36 (he played 29 minutes per but there was the game he got hurt early...so per 36 is relevant imo). 64% TS, so real efficient. He plays a bit more passive as a starter and looks to get others the ball a bit more... its a bit mechanical but whatevs.

Sexton/JC is where I will land... guess if no other trades. Its not ideal but there is an obvious trade that will need to be made if are balancing the roster and getting the young guys on the floor.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Except he forgot to add “Fun” in his bullet point list for Sexton.

Honestly zero to little fun in watching Sexton for me. Boring game IMO.

 

[HermanG]

I think its good to get a lot of good players but if you are looking at it as a bunch of assets you can move later the issue becomes that those players will need to be placed in situations to succeed to increase their value. I don't know that they are being placed in situations to succeed based on fit/role/etc.

I get that its not a finished product for sure. I think a trade or two could change things... but not sure we have a trade in us until after the season starts.

Hardy wants to play certain brand of unselfish basketball and DA and Zanik fill the roster to fit that mold. Eventually they need the high end on-ball talent to be successful in the playoffs, but I think the fact that there is no one to spoonfeed Lauri, Kessler or Collins (who has been spoonfed his entire career) might actually be best for their development.

I also wanna remind that we did quite well without Conley last year with very limited playmaking talent on the roster. ORtg 115.0 in 39 games without him, and that includes the 15 games at the end of the season when we alternated injuries to tank.

 

[HermanG]

And now we're full circle; I said this in the post that you initially responded to:


I never said it was a finished product. That's actually my point. Just prepare yourself that this season could be a letdown when the roster is clearly in the middle of a renovation.

Perhaps I overreacted and got stuck on the non-sensical term, when to me the roster makes perfect sense.

My apologies.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think just start JC and Sexton. Midway through the year both guys should have increased trade value and you can pick one to keep and one to trade. If Dunn is healthy, Key looks ready, or Ochai takes a leap you can cover their absence.

I think both JC and Sexton if healthy and getting minutes will have more value in a trade than they do now (Jc can't even be moved) or at any point last season. I don't see Ochai as a guy we need to move or even want to move... so not worried about increasing his value. I think JC and Sexton are the best guards we have so don't overthink fit for now (lord knows they didn't overthink fit with Collins)

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hardy wants to play certain brand of unselfish basketball and DA and Zanik fill the roster to fit that mold. Eventually they need the high end on-ball talent to be successful in the playoffs, but I think the fact that there is no one to spoonfeed Lauri, Kessler or Collins (who has been spoonfed his entire career) might actually be best for their development.

I also wanna remind that we did quite well without Conley last year with very limited playmaking talent on the roster. ORtg 115.0 in 39 games without him, and that includes the 15 games at the end of the season when we alternated injuries to tank.

Maybe so... I just think that unselfish ball movement is contagious and if the ball sticks it can be contagious too. We have a lot of guys that put the basketball in the hole when they get touches (that's good) and some that the ball tends to stick to... my worry is that unselfish brand of basketball needs a couple guys willing to sacrifice that are also good at passing. No Conley is one thing... KO's role being diminished is another... if we see a bit more of the "disease of me" or just guys not playing the brand of basketball we prefer I won't be super surprised.

It can work but it will take JC or Collin fighting against their nature/tendencies and really buying into setting guys up and picking their spots. It will also depend on all three front court players improving their playmaking (which as you noted may be a benefit).

 

[seattlejazzfan]

keyonte mother****ing george

 

[whatthe]

Well Clarkson is our best guard and he could in theory run the team but at the same time Dunn has the best inclination for a point guard but he needs shooting to surround him from all positions. I think will be Clarkson and Dunn off the bench. This really messes with THT and Sexton and Keynote (don't trust rookies) and disrespects them so that maybe a challenge how to fit everyone together.

 

[fishonjazz]

Honestly zero to little fun in watching Sexton for me. Boring game IMO.

No ****

 

[HermanG]

Maybe so... I just think that unselfish ball movement is contagious and if the ball sticks it can be contagious too. We have a lot of guys that put the basketball in the hole when they get touches (that's good) and some that the ball tends to stick to... my worry is that unselfish brand of basketball needs a couple guys willing to sacrifice that are also good at passing. No Conley is one thing... KO's role being diminished is another... if we see a bit more of the "disease of me" or just guys not playing the brand of basketball we prefer I won't be super surprised.

It can work but it will take JC or Collin fighting against their nature/tendencies and really buying into setting guys up and picking their spots. It will also depend on all three front court players improving their playmaking (which as you noted may be a benefit).

I think the team will surprise many who saw last year as just a fluke and a feel good story. But I well aware that could be my hopeless optimism.

All I know for sure is I'm excited about next season. Lots of potential and upside.. young guys, upcoming stars, reclamation projects and hopefully beautiful brand of ball without the pressure to contend for the title yet.

Gonna be so much fun.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the team will surprise many who saw last year as just a fluke and a feel good story. But I well aware that could be my hopeless optimism.

All I know for sure is I'm excited about next season. Lots of potential and upside.. young guys, upcoming stars, reclamation projects and hopefully beautiful brand of ball without the pressure to contend for the title yet.

Gonna be so much fun.

I'm here for it. I thought we were a 35 win team last year and was proven to be pretty close. I think we are likely right around the same number... if you gave me one guess and I had to guess exactly right... I'd say 38 wins. I think there are lots of reasons to watch and be excited.... and I am. I guess I'd just like a peak at what the end of season roster and lineups look like.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Assuming the other starters are Kessler, Collins, Lauri, and Clarkson I picked Dunn because I think he balances out that roster the best. If I had to bet though, I would go Sexton. He started when Mike was out last year and he was healthy. I also wouldn't bet on Dunn if I had to based on the reports that he isn't even guaranteed to make the roster. That leads me to believe that the front office isn't really even considering him as a starter next year.

Like others have discussed in this thread I've been confused at the lack of passers/connecters on our roster and have been saying as much for a long time now. It does continue to feel like DA has plans to address that. I am also considering the fact that Hardy might be able to get more out of this group than I expect. I certainly didn't think Clarkson was going to take his leap as a passer/play maker last year, I will hope to be pleasantly surprised with someone new this year.