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Why the Jazz will lose

D

doubledribble

Member
The Jazz are not the team to crush playoff teams by a good margin. The best chance for them to get wins against qulity opponents would be to prevail in the tight, down-to-the-wire games. So lets look at the clutch stats of the best Jazz players (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points):https:// https://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT6.HTM

FG%: Jefferson - 42%, Millsap -40%, Harris - 41%, Hayward - 40%.
3PT%: Millsap - 40%, Hayward - 13%, Harris - 8%.

Just to compare, the same stats for the Spurs:

FG%: Duncan - 57%, Parker - 46%, Bonner - 50%, Neal - 50%.
3PT%: Neal - 55%, Bonner - 50%, Parker - 40%.

Yeah, these data are through April 1 only and we can keep hoping that the Jazz will magically change in the playoff clutch wizards... but, honestly, it would probably be brutal and the Jazz will lose a couple of games just because of their inability to finish a close one. It is typical for the young teams and the Jazz will hopefully grow out of it, but it is what it is for now.

P.S. As a bonus, here is FT% in the clutch: Jefferson - 40%, Harris - 58%, Hayward - 79%, and only Millsap with the respectable 84%.
 
BluesRocker said:
Sorry. Jazz are winning.

You suck.
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Actually, I am usually right on target. Here is my prediction made in the midst of the disastrous start of the season (when the majority of this board was wallowing in despair):
The Jazz will be playing in the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed (barring major injuries). Yes, they will be destroyed by many good teams in the coming days and still make it. There is too much going for them...

- The first and second-year Utah players will inevitably get significantly better over the course of the season. And Millsap, Jefferson and Howard seem to care...The compressed season is favoring teams with young legs and deep benches...The Jazz do not rely anymore on injury-prone AK, Boozer and Memo. They have much lower chances of significant injuries than their competitors. They also do not seem to have any locker-room issues.

The Jazz will finish with 33-35 wins. It will be a fun season and they will be a very different team in April.
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Those were the obvious reasons why the Jazz were going to make the playoffs and the Jazz stats in the crunch are the obvious reasons why they will not make the series competitive.
 
doubledribble said:
Actually, I am usually right on target. Here is my prediction made in the midst of the disastrous start of the season (when the majority of this board was wallowing in despair):

"The Jazz will be playing in the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed (barring major injuries). Yes, they will be destroyed by many good teams in the coming days and still make it. There is too much going for them...

- The first and second-year Utah players will inevitably get significantly better over the course of the season. And Millsap, Jefferson and Howard seem to care...The compressed season is favoring teams with young legs and deep benches...The Jazz do not rely anymore on injury-prone AK, Boozer and Memo. They have much lower chances of significant injuries than their competitors. They also do not seem to have any locker-room issues.

The Jazz will finish with 33-35 wins. It will be a fun season and they will be a very different team in April. "

Those were obvious reasons why the Jazz were going to make the playoffs and the Jazz' stats in the crunch are the obvious reasons why they will not make the series competitive.
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LOOK, GUY. It's playoff time. I do not approve of your statistical negativity, OKAY? Now say it with me. "The Jazz will beat SAS." Drink that ****ing Kool-Aid. Chug it down.
 
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doubledribble said:
Actually, I am usually right on target. Here is my prediction made in the midst of the disastrous start of the season (when the majority of this board was wallowing in despair):


Those were the obvious reasons why the Jazz were going to make the playoffs and the Jazz stats in the crunch are the obvious reasons why they will not make the series competitive.
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Dude, you weren't right on target. You predicted 33-35 wins and the Jazz actually had 36. Plus the jazz did have a couple major injuries (2 starters and the 6th man). If you were off on these predictions then I see no reason to trust you on your latest playoff thoughts.

Sorry guy, Jazz in 5.
 
Utah's mindset should be to push this series beyond four games. That's it. Whatever happen after that is gravy and the closer you get to that seventh game, the more likely anything can happen. Yeah, it sounds simplistic, but really, that's all you can do as heavy underdogs.

What I like about these Jazz is that they're just unpredictable enough to do it. I wouldn't be floored if I saw this team taking the Spurs to seven games and leading with two minutes to go. It's not likely to happen, and certainly not something I'm expecting, but you know, this isn't the '09 Jazz who limped into the playoffs as an 8th seed. They fought tooth and nail for that spot and because of it, I guess the hope here is that they're hitting their stride at the right moment. Not sure it would amount to even a win in this series, but I'm hopeful it can at least provide an excellent and thrilling first round series.

So, don't get swept, if you can't steal one game in SA, win both home games and we'll go from there. That's all I ask.
 
The Jazz will lose if they cannot defend the pick'n roll better and if they can't stop the normal 3 pt bombardment the Spurs give the Jazz every year. Jazz also have to believe they can win which most of the time in SA they look defeated before halftime. Oh it is because that is usually what happens.
 
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