If he's done it the previous season they are deemed "likely". If he hasn't, it's deemed unlikely. I don't know if Gobert has All-NBA first team incentive or just a general All-NBA team(1st, second or third) incentive. If he has a 1st team all-NBA incentive in his contract, it will be deemed "unlikely", if he has an all-NBA second or third team(or general) incentive in his contract, it will be deemed "likely". At least, that's the way I understand it. It's never ideal, but this seems somewhat reasonable way to determine what is and what isn't likely. Again - the problem with loopholes emerges and I bet teams will start abusing those and the league will crack down on those in a following CBA or as an addendum to the current one next year.
Yeah but Gobert had made no All-**** teams before, so they would be deemed "unlikely" but the increase still counted against the cap...Right?