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8 and 1/2 man rotation theory

Q

Qman

Well-Known Member
https://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110401&sportCat=nba

Our go-to example for the rest of eternity for The Law of Too Many Guys. You only need eight and a half guys to win in the NBA: five starters, three bench guys, then an 8½th man who doesn't mind playing 0-10 minutes a night and being on call if a rotation guy gets into foul trouble, gets hurt or whatever. Of those eight and half guys, ideally, you need two scorers, one ball handler, one perimeter defender and one rebounder. You need to be able to play defense. You need everyone to know their roles. You need to know who's playing crunch time and who gets the ball in those last few minutes. And you need a coach competent enough not to screw things up. That's it.
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It's a common-sense thing. Ask any NBA starter how many minutes would make them happy and they'd say 36 to 38 (one rest per half). There are 240 minutes available in a basketball game. That means you need to allot 180-190 minutes for your five starters to be happy. Now, ask any bench player how many minutes they need to play well and you know what they'd say? Two stretches per half for 8-10 minutes. They need time to run around, break a sweat, get a feel for the game and get comfortable. That means you need to allot 50-60 minutes for your three bench guys and your 8½th man.
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Saw this in the a Bill Simmons article and wanted to see how the Jazz stacked up to the theory. Also to take a look at our current pieces and the roles they can fill at high level.


Who do you see as our 8 1/2 rotation guys?

I see

1.Harris
2. Hayward
3. Draft Pick #1
4. Favors
5. Jefferson
6. Millsap
7. Draft Pick #2
8. Miles
8 1/2. Evans or Raja

There is a small chance that Raja could supplant Miles in the rotation.
 
I would agree with this only to the extent that "None of the 8 and 1/2 men gets hurt at any time during the season"

I would still stay (as evidenced by the Jazz this season) that you would need a few more solid role players to ensure that you get through the 82 game season before THEN you can use your 8 and 1/2 men during the playoffs...
 
Lets look at the Lakers as an example:

2 Scorers: Kobe, Pau
One Ball Handler: Steve Blake, Fisher or Odom
One Perimeter Defender: Ron Artest
One Rebounder: Bynum or Odom depending on who's in

Now, lets see what the Jazz have:

2 Scorers: Al Jeffs and no one else you can rely on to get a bucket or get fouled. The closest second scorer is CJ believe it or not.
One Ball Handler: Not a problem with Harris and Hayward; Earl Watson has also been playing quite a bit in the 4th quarter.
One Perimeter Defender: Raja Bell, or Maybe Hayward will take up this role.
One Rebounder: Derrick Favors has to be this guy, but we need another for when Favors isn't in the game. Memo actually played an important role as a rebounder in years past and hasn't been replaced yet.

Conclusion: The Jazz need a reliable scorer to go along with Jefferson. D.Will had this ability, but hasn't been replaced adequately. It's possible that Favors will develop into a go-to scorer, but they need a reliable scorer on the wing. Maybe that's Hayward, but I'm not certain of this. The Jazz's should try to improve their perimeter defense by adding a talented wing to replace Bell/AK. Finally, the Jazz need a dedicated rebounder to rotate in with Jefferson and Favors.

Draft needs: 1) a talented, multi-dimensional wing who can score and play defense out on the floor (e.g., Brandon Knight, Harrison Barnes, maybe T. Jones or Vesely), and 2) a big with defensive presence who will dedicate to rebounding (e.g., Valanciunas, Kanter, Biyombo).
 
This theory is a little too tidy for me. I think you select and include players based on two or three skills that they contribute -- you don't just peg them for one skill. "Two scorers" is the most ridiculously reductive line of thinking in the whole thing; it matters a lot more how those scorers are distributed on the floor. Moreover, this theory says nothing about how different pieces complement one another, about how losing a Kyle Korver can be so damned huge for both of your "scorers".

That said, this theory does help to highlight our needs. We need DWill2 and Biyombo, which means that we need our 12th pick to hit the jackpot! Oh, how goddamn sweet that would be.
 
NAOS said:
This theory is a little too tidy for me. I think you select and include players based on two or three skills that they contribute -- you don't just peg them for one skill. "Two scorers" is the most ridiculously reductive line of thinking in the whole thing; it matters a lot more how those scorers are distributed on the floor. Moreover, this theory says nothing about how different pieces complement one another, about how losing a Kyle Korver can be so damned huge for both of your "scorers".

That said, this theory does help to highlight our needs. We need DWill2 and Biyombo, which means that we need our 12th pick to hit the jackpot! Oh, how goddamn sweet that would be.
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For our team I prefer Barnes to to Derrick Williams. But yes #1 and #6 picks would be awesome.
 
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Fin
 
I prefer a 9-man rotation. There have been championship teams that had a solid 9-man rotation, limit it to 8 players getting consistent minutes and you eliminate the advantage strong bench play can provide, as well as risk your starters wearing down.

Plus, Utah is such a young team and work in progress, trying to limit your rotation to 8 1/2 players at this point makes little sense.
 
vslice02 said:
I prefer a 9-man rotation. There have been championship teams that had a solid 9-man rotation, limit it to 8 players getting consistent minutes and you eliminate the advantage strong bench play can provide, as well as risk your starters wearing down.

Plus, Utah is such a young team and work in progress, trying to limit your rotation to 8 1/2 players at this point makes little sense.
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Well if we have 9 players that deserve to play- let's play all 9. But we need to get 8 players that can play first.
 
8 1/2 for your playoff push, sure. I think you need to use more guys during the regular season just to know who you have coming off your bench if you end up needing them.
 
2 Scorers: Big Al, next season it will be Gordon AND Harris
One Ball Handler: Harris and Watson
One Perimeter Defender: ?? should have been Bell .. me hopes it will be Gordon .. could have been Matthews :(
One Rebounder: Could be Big Al, Favors and Milsap

So if the Jazz will be able to get back Matthews then it can be legit contender?
Then trade anybody (except Big Al, Favors, Milsap, Gordon and Harris) or package with a draft pick to get him back :)
 
I think BIll Simmons is speaking more about contending teams having a 8 1/2 rotation. We'll be a young team with alot of unknowns. We'll probably have 2 more rookies on the team next season, so Ty should start the season playing a nice mix of everyone, maybe up to 10 guys, until we figure out what we have and what lineups work.
 
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