Sophomore year projection for Favors

[r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t]

https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=6742324

This time, the projections are generated by Basketball Prospectus' SCHOENE Projection System, which uses players' stats to match them with similar talents at the same age, then uses the development of those peers to generate a projection. In this case, we've assumed each player will have the same role as last year so statistics can easily be compared on a level playing field. Numbers in parentheses are from the 2010-11 season.

...

Derrick Favors, F/C, Utah Jazz
7.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.6 apg (6.8, 5.3, 0.5)

Favors, who will turn 20 next week, was the NBA's youngest player a season ago, so rapid improvement is to be expected. The average player similar to him did in fact improve by 13.1 percent the following season, barely edging out Cousins for the most projected development heading into Year 2. Favors' numbers are likely to trend upward across the board, though the extent of his development may not be evident unless he's able to carve out additional minutes in a frontcourt that has become crowded with the addition of No. 3 pick Enes Kanter. Favors does have a unique claim to playing time in that he's the best defender of the Jazz's options up front.

hopefully the Jazz are planning to give Favors something more than "the same role as last year".

 

[larryselbows]

https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=6742324



hopefully the Jazz are planning to give Favors something more than "the same role as last year".

Those numbers are hide-u-ous!

 

[mellow]

7 & 5??? Really, I might expect Kanter's rookie numbers to be that low, but I would be sick if Favors are that low, he should avearage 10-12 points, 7-8 rebounds, and 2 blocks. If not Ty is using him wrong.


Edit:

Can you imagine how Ty Corbin, Greg Milller and KOC will be sweating it out if that is Favors sophmore line? Especially if the CBA makes it easier for teams to keep stars--Mama might remeber how unhappy she was about trading Deron.

 

[Bodhi]

7 & 5??? Really, I might expect Kanter's rookie numbers to be that low, but I would be sick if Favors are that low, he should avearage 10-12 points, 7-8 rebounds, and 2 blocks. If not Ty is using him wrong.

^This^

 

[Jeffrey32]

Favors: 12 & 8
Kanter: 9 & 4

 

[Fishsticks]

These stats are crap. Demarcus improving by 1 point certainly proves that. Like Jeffery, I see favors doing in the nighborhood of 12 & 8.

DeMarcus Cousins, F/C, Sacramento Kings

15.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.2 apg (14.1, 8.6, 2.5)



When you think of Cousins, you probably don't think of passing, but statistically his assist rate was one of the strongest aspects of his game as a rookie. Similar players (led, amusingly, by fellow Kentucky product Antoine Walker) handed out nearly a third more assists the next season, which would take Cousins over three assists a night. Just six big men in the league, including Griffin, averaged more than Cousins' projection of 3.2 apg. As important to Sacramento might be a decline in Cousins' foul rate, projected at more than 6 percent. Cousins led the NBA last season with 4.1 fouls per game. In fact, he fouled 58 more times than anyone else in the league.


(SCHOENE cannot account for the possibility that Cousins plays a different role next season. Because center Samuel Dalembert is a free agent and the Kings dealt for power forward J.J. Hickson, Cousins could end up logging far more minutes in the middle.)

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

Favors: 12 & 8
Kanter: 9 & 4

This.

 

[colton]

I ran across this a day or two ago:
https://www.slcdunk.com/2011/6/29/2249160/peering-into-the-future-hayward-and-favors

Some interesting stuff. As near as I can make out, he's taking the rookie numbers and then inflating them based on how much more Hayward and Favors will be used in future years. Maybe not next year, but within a couple of years. This is assuming they DON'T improve, but just get more "usage". I believe he said that in addition to inflatings pts/etc due to a higher usage rate, actual players tend to also improve on assists and turnovers.

Starting Gordon Hayward: 19.3 points, 4.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks, 3.5 turnovers.
Starting Derrick Favors: 20.5 points, 1.5 assists, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.9 turnovers.

 

[Ben10]

Just read that article from slcdunk. Really liked it, Very interesting view of what the players he did the comparisons with did since there rookie season. I really think Hay and Favors could be really good. That article helps me continue to think that.

 

[Fishsticks]

I ran across this a day or two ago:
https://www.slcdunk.com/2011/6/29/2249160/peering-into-the-future-hayward-and-favors

Some interesting stuff. As near as I can make out, he's taking the rookie numbers and then inflating them based on how much more Hayward and Favors will be used in future years. Maybe not next year, but within a couple of years. This is assuming they DON'T improve, but just get more "usage". I believe he said that in addition to inflatings pts/etc due to a higher usage rate, actual players tend to also improve on assists and turnovers.

If we see those numbers this team is going to be special

 

[NUMBERICA]

If we see those numbers this team is going to be special

Seriously. But I am skeptical. Of course, that just means I'm happier when I'm wrong and less sad when I'm right.

 

[Jazz Punk Rocker]

Seems about accurate...jazz have a ridiculous amount of depth especially with Okur healthy and Kanter added...I don't see him getting much more minutes then what he got last year...even look at Millsaps numbers, the year he started when Booze got out (3 years ago) was better then the numbers when he went back to the bench (2 years ago).

 

[donAZ62]

Kirilenko type numbers -- blocks, steals

I don't know how Favors was used or coached in New Jersey, but if you look at just his games with Utah, his blocks and steals were off the charts for a rookie. The last ten games his numbers per 48 minutes were very similar to Kirilenko in his best years. Rebounds per 48 were also great, as well as his field goal percentage. I'd say his ceiling is sky high if he can cut down on his fouls and improve his free throw shooting.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I see Hayward doing more then Favors next year with a less crowded position, and more playing time.

I would like to see Jefferson traded to improve draft position opening up playing time for Favors the following year. If KOC plays his cards right this could be a very dangerous team in a few years.

 

[green]

Holy crap, if Hayward averages that, then this team will content for titles, no matter who the pg is. That would be amazing.

"Starting Gordon Hayward: 19.3 points, 4.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks, 3.5 turnovers."

20, 4, and 4? Those are unbelievable numbers. The turnovers are a little scary, and I think with his size, assuming he stays at the sg spot, he can average a block a game. Man, that would be incredible.

 

[infection]

Holy crap, if Hayward averages that, then this team will content for titles, no matter who the pg is.

I hope they're not content with a title. I want a ten-peat.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I hope they're not content with a title. I want a ten-peat.

At this point, I would be very contend to just win the first one.

 

[green]

Lol. Man, my grammar has gotten so bad. Please keep correcting me (this goes to everyone). I think livin in Philly kilt all my good gramma.

 

[infection]

Lol. Man, my grammar has gotten so bad. Please keep correcting me (this goes to everyone). I think livin in Philly kilt all my good gramma.

I still want the 10-peat. Decapeat?

 

[Dr. Jones]

Is this what we're talking about???