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2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)

Handlogten's Heros said:
Unless NOLA does something awesome with the cap space they just cleared its a win for Memphis. The draft odds at #10 aren't great but you have about a 25% chance at landing a blue chip guy... at #17 it is waaaaaaayyyyyy worse. Just look at the draft history of the last 5ish years from 15-20... It might be a 5-10% chance. Blue chip talent is the toughest thing to acquire.

Rumors are Bledsoe is headed elsewhere already. Gonna guess this might be a Laker Kuzma/Montrez deal. Just a guess doe.
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I think the opposite- unless Memphis nails the pick, they seriously lost this trade.

JV was a really good player for them. He plays so much differently than Adams. And Bledsoe doesn't help Morant's spacing at all.

Bledsoe might be moved elsewhere, but it will be interesting what he gets Memphis. He's almost more valuable to shed $16 million in summer 2022 than he is to pay $20 million for 2022-23.

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KqWIN said:
You can definitely trade the pick and have it be a bad move. You can also make the pick and have it a bad move. I don't agree with saying it shows weakness or cowardice to not make the pick. Trading it or keeping it all has it's pros and cons and obviously depends on what you get out of either option. If you make the pick and draft bad, bad move. Trade the pick and it doesn't amount to anything, also bad move. There's no automatic win/loss here. I'm not even calling for us to punt back, I just don't fundamentally see an issue with the process of either route.

I get that this is sports, but I seriously don't understand why people have to throw cowardice into everything. If you trade the pick because you didn't like the options, that's not cowardice that's actually just trusting your scouting. "You didn't have the balls to draft someone you don't like, what a coward!" Seriously, that can't be how we operate. Drafting at #30 is a high risk proposition, so it is risk aversion. But I also don't think you are a coward if you don't take the riskiest route every time and trading the pick for another pick isn't without risk, especially when it comes to your favorability/job security.

Trading the pick also doesn't mean bad scouting. Trading the pick means you don't like the options available. That could be good or bad depending on the draft. It's not inherently good or bad to think the draft is strong. Good scouting means that you have a good read on the strength of the draft and just because there is a player that pops in a draft that you think is bad doesn't mean the scouting is bad and you didn't look hard enough. Good/bad scouting informs the decision to trade or not, but it is not slanted towards keeping or trading.

As far as our situation, I would agree that it's a critical time. I think we're 2-3 years away from Donovan demanding out and then our time of winning lots of games is over and landing on #30 would be a huge win. Resources are scarce and the pick has to hit in some way. I'm hoping we can cut the salary without Favors and use the pick to move Favors and return.

If I'm being honest, however, I thought the pick would be moved to dump Favors if Conley was coming back and all signs point to that so that's all it will probably amount to. In all these scenarios, salary has to be cut one way or another. So first you have to find a way to cut salary, then you think about making the team better. Favors dump looks wayyyy more likely than Bogey/Ingles IMO.
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What is the difference between risk aversion and cowardice? Again... if I take money to my money manager and he is worried he picks the wrong investment that I will fire him... he gets his fee no matter what I do. He drops it in a .5% 12 month CD because he doesn't like the stocks available right now, but then there are a handful of winners... like there are every year. Is he a wise steward? Is he concerned about having money available later for investments? Does he have a credible plan at all? It isn't about some toxic masculinity thing where I challenge another guy's manhood.

In a normal year I think I'd be fine saying let's kick the can down the road. Right now though? We need a big win... not just a win a big win. We can get a small win in FA, but the only way for us to get a big win is through the draft. It doesn't have a great chance of working out... but simply swapping a pick this year for a pick next year (again it'd have protections and such) and hoping to make a trade down the road is too much risk aversion at this point in our timeline. It wreaks of all the years we punted using our space to "keep the powder dry" and to make sure we could retain the core 4. Nevermind that those guys may not have ever been good enough to worry about and that you can sign guys and have them become trade assets.

If we look at the options and "don't like them" when a few guys in our draft range end up being NBA players then I get to question how good you are at picking players... which is what scouting is... right? If you don't have the confidence to make a pick to find the outlier this year, then will you have the confidence next year?

I also don't really think the deal where its a 1st round pick for a 1st round pick next year is out there. Portland might be the only option I can think of there... they gonna have that thing lotto protected right? For how many years? What level of player does that pick get you in a trade?

I'd just rather shoot the shot now... shot clock is running out on this iteration unless we can infuse the team with some young talent. Might already be too late. This draft is stocked pretty well with perimeter players worth taking a shot on.
 
LoPo said:
I think the opposite- unless Memphis nails the pick, they seriously lost this trade.

JV was a really good player for them. He plays so much differently than Adams. And Bledsoe doesn't help Morant's spacing at all.

Bledsoe might be moved elsewhere, but it will be interesting what he gets Memphis. He's almost more valuable to shed $16 million in summer 2022 than he is to pay $20 million for 2022-23.

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If Utah did this you'd be spiting fire. I don't think you understand the whole picture for NOLA ( i mostly hate it for them and think its solid for Memphis).

For NOLA to use the cap space they just cleared by moving back and giving up a first they have to waive Ball's caphold making him unrestricted. To get Lowry they likely have to go one more step and waive Hart's caphold. Lowry is the guy they want by all reports.

So the trade is Ball, Hart, moving back 7 spots, LAL first for Lowry and an upgrade from Adams to JV. They may get to keep Hart if Lowry can't get an offer over $25M a year.

If you hated the Conley move for us then you should likely hate this one too.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
What is the difference between risk aversion and cowardice? Again... if I take money to my money manager and he is worried he picks the wrong investment that I will fire him... he gets his fee no matter what I do. He drops it in a .5% 12 month CD because he doesn't like the stocks available right now, but then there are a handful of winners... like there are every year. Is he a wise steward? Is he concerned about having money available later for investments? Does he have a credible plan at all? It isn't about some toxic masculinity thing where I challenge another guy's manhood.

In a normal year I think I'd be fine saying let's kick the can down the road. Right now though? We need a big win... not just a win a big win. We can get a small win in FA, but the only way for us to get a big win is through the draft. It doesn't have a great chance of working out... but simply swapping a pick this year for a pick next year (again it'd have protections and such) and hoping to make a trade down the road is too much risk aversion at this point in our timeline. It wreaks of all the years we punted using our space to "keep the powder dry" and to make sure we could retain the core 4. Nevermind that those guys may not have ever been good enough to worry about and that you can sign guys and have them become trade assets.

If we look at the options and "don't like them" when a few guys in our draft range end up being NBA players then I get to question how good you are at picking players... which is what scouting is... right? If you don't have the confidence to make a pick to find the outlier this year, then will you have the confidence next year?

I also don't really think the deal where its a 1st round pick for a 1st round pick next year is out there. Portland might be the only option I can think of there... they gonna have that thing lotto protected right? For how many years? What level of player does that pick get you in a trade?

I'd just rather shoot the shot now... shot clock is running out on this iteration unless we can infuse the team with some young talent. Might already be too late. This draft is stocked pretty well with perimeter players worth taking a shot on.
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There's obviously a different connotation between risk aversion and cowardice. Are you a coward if you don't invest in something you believe will fail? I didn't throw all my money into crypto scams propped by instagram models. Am I a coward for that? Or do did I simply say that the risk wasn't worth the reward. Likewise, I'm not going to buy a stock I don't like just because I know there will be a stock that goes up.

Moving the pick is totally understandable move given the right circumstances, same with drafting. It's a different risk assessment. Instead of taking your chances at #30, you're taking your chances at a different pick or trade down the line. It's also not inherently more/less risky.

There are different reward and risk variable to both and how you evaluate that depends on how you see this draft, future drafts, the current trade market, and the future trade market. If you don't consider any of those confounding variables and drafting for the sake of drafting or that there is nothing in you current/future analysis that could break you from drafting, that is bad management.

I'm not even advocating for us to do this for this draft and I haven't even considered if such a deal is out there, but assessing your present and future options and deciding the future is more lucrative is not automatically weak, show poor scouting, imply less risk, or make you a coward.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If Utah did this you'd be spiting fire. I don't think you understand the whole picture for NOLA ( i mostly hate it for them and think its solid for Memphis).

For NOLA to use the cap space they just cleared by moving back and giving up a first they have to waive Ball's caphold making him unrestricted. To get Lowry they likely have to go one more step and waive Hart's caphold. Lowry is the guy they want by all reports.

So the trade is Ball, Hart, moving back 7 spots, LAL first for Lowry and an upgrade from Adams to JV. They may get to keep Hart if Lowry can't get an offer over $25M a year.

If you hated the Conley move for us then you should likely hate this one too.
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I'm judging 1 deal at a time.

Bledsoe and Adams are awful contracts. They are role players for title contenders. The #10 pick isn't guaranteed to be better than #17.

What NOLA does from that trade to the next should not impact the first trade which I think NOLA won big time


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KqWIN said:
There's obviously a different connotation between risk aversion and cowardice. Are you a coward if you don't invest in something you believe will fail? I didn't throw all my money into crypto scams propped by instagram models. Am I a coward for that? Or do did I simply say that the risk wasn't worth the reward. Likewise, I'm not going to buy a stock I don't like just because I know there will be a stock that goes up.

Moving the pick is totally understandable move given the right circumstances, same with drafting. It's a different risk assessment. Instead of taking your chances at #30, you're taking your chances at a different pick or trade down the line. It's also not inherently more/less risky.

There are different reward and risk variable to both and how you evaluate that depends on how you see this draft, future drafts, the current trade market, and the future trade market. If you don't consider any of those confounding variables and drafting for the sake of drafting or that there is nothing in you current/future analysis that could break you from drafting, that is bad management.

I'm not even advocating for us to do this for this draft and I haven't even considered if such a deal is out there, but assessing your present and future options and deciding the future is more lucrative is not automatically weak, show poor scouting, imply less risk, or make you a coward.
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I mean sure consider all the variables... but this particular action of trading a 1st this year for a 1st in a future year is not trading the chance to invest in some crypto BS for the chance to invest in a can't miss stock later. It is trading the chance to roll the dice now for a chance to roll the dice in a year or two. Problem is you have a big need to win that dice roll now because winning that roll has a pretty big upside.

Evaluating future drafts is nonsense... pull that out of the equation. Unless you are drafting in the top ten they really don't have a great read on that... even then how many top 10 recruits spend a year in college and are found to be bad? It happens a lot. No one is giving an unprotected pick... No one is good enough to predict the strength of a draft in picks 20-40 a year or two out with any degree of reliability.

Your risk assessment in trading a dice roll this year for a dice roll next year is simply - Do you like the options available (if there aren't any you like at all I think you are likely being too picky)? Do you think you need the pick for a trade?

In our position waiting a year and then taking the dice roll next draft... even if you are drafting at 20-25 range... I think you have lost enough value with the year delay that its a loss. If you land a pick in the 15-19 range then you likely got some value there.
 
LoPo said:
I'm judging 1 deal at a time.

Bledsoe and Adams are awful contracts. They are role players for title contenders. The #10 pick isn't guaranteed to be better than #17.

What NOLA does from that trade to the next should not impact the first trade which I think NOLA won big time


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Ha... this is convenient. When considering this deal then go ahead and factor in that they will be losing Ball... because that is the only way they realize the contract saving this year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I mean sure consider all the variables... but this particular action of trading a 1st this year for a 1st in a future year is not trading the chance to invest in some crypto BS for the chance to invest in a can't miss stock later. It is trading the chance to roll the dice now for a chance to roll the dice in a year or two. Problem is you have a big need to win that dice roll now because winning that roll has a pretty big upside.

Evaluating future drafts is nonsense... pull that out of the equation. Unless you are drafting in the top ten they really don't have a great read on that... even then how many top 10 recruits spend a year in college and are found to be bad? It happens a lot. No one is giving an unprotected pick... No one is good enough to predict the strength of a draft in picks 20-40 a year or two out with any degree of reliability.

Your risk assessment in trading a dice roll this year for a dice roll next year is simply - Do you like the options available (if there aren't any you like at all I think you are likely being too picky)? Do you think you need the pick for a trade?

In our position waiting a year and then taking the dice roll next draft... even if you are drafting at 20-25 range... I think you have lost enough value with the year delay that its a loss. If you land a pick in the 15-19 range then you likely got some value there.
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You should be able to assess the relative strength of draft. Even if you're not comparing it to next year, you ought to have a good grasp on the strength of the players available and how they compare to a typical draft.

You're absolutely right about having a risk assessment for the next year pick and comparing it to the risk assessment to this year's options. That is my entire point. You shouldn't indiscriminately draft without considering the other options. If you don't like the current options, it's not because you didn't try hard enough or do enough scouting and you shouldn't draft someone you don't believe in just because someone out there is going to be a steal.

If you like the future options, whether that's because you want to execute for a trade, don't like the current prospects, or you like the chances of where the acquired pick will land, that is not cowardice.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Ha... this is convenient. When considering this deal then go ahead and factor in that they will be losing Ball... because that is the only way they realize the contract saving this year.
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New Orleans just saved $25 million this summer and $38 million next summer. This deal applies to so much more than what they do with Ball.

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LoPo said:
New Orleans just saved $25 million this summer and $38 million next summer. This deal applies to so much more than what they do with Ball.

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Wait.. you only look at one deal at a time but look at how this applies to so much more than Ball?

25M this year and 21M next year actually... and that is if they let JV walk. They only clear that cap space if they let Ball and Hart walk... they could have just kept the assets and re-signed those guys.

This absolutely smells like the deal Vlade Divac did to clear space for Iggy by giving up draft capital... Iggy ended up leveraging them to get where he really wanted to go and then they signed Rondo and Boom Bitches instead.

If NO strikes out in FA and just brings back Ball and Hart then they gave all that **** up to save the owners some money and get out of Adams deal a year early. I'm sure Zion will be impressed with that. If they did it to get Lowry that will help them win for a year or two and short change them in the future.

We can go ahead and pause this convo until after the draft and FA.
 
KqWIN said:
You should be able to assess the relative strength of draft. Even if you're not comparing it to next year, you ought to have a good grasp on the strength of the players available and how they compare to a typical draft.

You're absolutely right about having a risk assessment for the next year pick and comparing it to the risk assessment to this year's options. That is my entire point. You shouldn't indiscriminately draft without considering the other options. If you don't like the current options, it's not because you didn't try hard enough or do enough scouting and you shouldn't draft someone you don't believe in just because someone out there is going to be a steal.

If you like the future options, whether that's because you want to execute for a trade, don't like the current prospects, or you like the chances of where the acquired pick will land, that is not cowardice.
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Not really on the strength of the draft... Grimes was a top 10 guy in his HS class and we are wondering if he's worth the #30th pick... he wouldn't have been drafted after his Freshmen year. Guys fly up and down the board constantly.

On the other point I view it differently... its not necessarily about trying hard (although that is part of it) but if you decide there is no one you like at #30 and another team does and takes that player... it might very well be that they are better than you at spotting the right prospects. No one is 100%, but if you are more confident in the murky future you just might not be decisive enough or good enough to trust yourself. Don't throw a dart... but also don't stare at the board and say " I think I'll be better at this next go around".
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Wait.. you only look at one deal at a time but look at how this applies to so much more than Ball?

25M this year and 21M next year actually... and that is if they let JV walk. They only clear that cap space if they let Ball and Hart walk... they could have just kept the assets and re-signed those guys.

This absolutely smells like the deal Vlade Divac did to clear space for Iggy by giving up draft capital... Iggy ended up leveraging them to get where he really wanted to go and then they signed Rondo and Boom Bitches instead.

If NO strikes out in FA and just brings back Ball and Hart then they gave all that **** up to save the owners some money and get out of Adams deal a year early. I'm sure Zion will be impressed with that. If they did it to get Lowry that will help them win for a year or two and short change them in the future.

We can go ahead and pause this convo until after the draft and FA.
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If we had two bad contracts that were two years long, I would sacrifice 7 draft spots to shed them.

New Orleans has so much flexibility now.

As for Bledsoe, one minute you are saying it's a good move and the next you are saying it's savings for Memphis next year like they would just waive him and pay $4 million.

I just don't like the trade for Memphis at all. They set their conference rival up for a big target while they got overpaid role players.

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LoPo said:
If we had two bad contracts that were two years long, I would sacrifice 7 draft spots to shed them.

New Orleans has so much flexibility now.

As for Bledsoe, one minute you are saying it's a good move and the next you are saying it's savings for Memphis next year like they would just waive him and pay $4 million.

I just don't like the trade for Memphis at all. They set their conference rival up for a big target while they got overpaid role players.

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Please point to where I said it was a good move because of Bledsoe. It’s a good move because they used space to give themselves a MUCH better shot at landing a blue chip guy and they got another first too. If they can flip Bledsoe for something then that is icing on the cake. If they just waive him a 4M cap hit is no big deal.

If NO gets that big target they have to give up two younger players to do it. They are also going for a guy that is just as likely to be a bad contract as he is to being an awesome pickup. They think they are doing the CP deal… they aren’t ready yet.

NO could have just waived and stretched Bledsoe instead and gotten basically the same space. Let’s see what big fish they land and what they paid to get him and then judge the deal.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Not really on the strength of the draft... Grimes was a top 10 guy in his HS class and we are wondering if he's worth the #30th pick... he wouldn't have been drafted after his Freshmen year. Guys fly up and down the board constantly.

On the other point I view it differently... its not necessarily about trying hard (although that is part of it) but if you decide there is no one you like at #30 and another team does and takes that player... it might very well be that they are better than you at spotting the right prospects. No one is 100%, but if you are more confident in the murky future you just might not be decisive enough or good enough to trust yourself. Don't throw a dart... but also don't stare at the board and say " I think I'll be better at this next go around".
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I’m not talking about individual players throughout the years, I’m talking about guys available at 30 this year compared to the others. You might think the guys available feel like they would go higher or lower in a different year. Assessing the strength of the draft is pretty standard. Hell, I even saw you mention earlier that the draft guys think this year is strong. Teams are going to have their own opinions too and that should effect how they operate.

The other team could also be worse at scouting than you and you are confident in that decision because of the scouting work you put in. There’s really no reason to assume that disliking the pick means you did less work. If they really want someone at 30 that you don’t, it could be their lack of due diligence. If we’re talking about confidence in scouting, why the hell is good to have more confidence in a different teams scouting their your own. If you change your opinion based on another team that is actually showing weakness and having no confidence in yourself.

If you were lazy and did no scouting like me you’d find guys you like and dislike. You would also find guys you like and dislike if you spent 10,000 hours on each player. You can’t start loving the draft out of sheer willpower. If you trust yourself, make moves based on your own analysis.
 
KqWIN said:
I’m not talking about individual players throughout the years, I’m talking about guys available at 30 this year compared to the others. You might think the guys available feel like they would go higher or lower in a different year. Assessing the strength of the draft is pretty standard. Hell, I even saw you mention earlier that the draft guys think this year is strong. Teams are going to have their own opinions too and that should effect how they operate.

The other team could also be worse at scouting than you and you are confident in that decision because of the scouting work you put in. There’s really no reason to assume that disliking the pick means you did less work. If they really want someone at 30 that you don’t, it could be their lack of due diligence. If we’re talking about confidence in scouting, why the hell is good to have more confidence in a different teams scouting their your own. If you change your opinion based on another team that is actually showing weakness and having no confidence in yourself.

If you were lazy and did no scouting like me you’d find guys you like and dislike. You would also find guys you like and dislike if you spent 10,000 hours on each player. You can’t start loving the draft out of sheer willpower. If you trust yourself, make moves based on your own analysis.
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But to know if the guys in this draft are worse than those in future drafts you have to project what is available in the future… which is not going to be accurate.

Listened to some well known experts… basically every year there are roughly 20 nba players in the draft… said he didn’t think there was reason to believe this draft would have more or less than the average but felt that the “hits” would potentially be bigger than normal in the 20s range. So there may be a few extra doubles instead of singles.

You go ahead and believe whatever you like. I’ve watched DL be sloppy and passive for too many years to think give guys the benefit of the doubt. These guys are like politicians… job preservation is their primary concern.
 
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