Do you want our pick to convey this year?

[silesian]

It really isn't because you base it off of the best players age. Both teams have a young core group with bonafide stars. Odd are they will be solid for near future. Maybe not best team in the league solid but definitely solid playoff team with the upside of being the best team in the league.

Overconfidence bias

 

[sip]

I agree. I think we may end up both not making the play in and keeping our pick. Bad **** happens to us.

There is a low chance (like 20-30%) they collapse... there is an extremely low (like 1-2%) they make it to multiple finals. The difference is to realize horrible downside only one very bad thing has to happen... to win the title so many things have to go incredibly right.

I feel like you have a really bad grasp on the cavs. There core group most definitely has a good shot to come out of the east a few times over the next 5 years. They also aren't a one man team so they aren't going to collapse either if one really bad thing happens. Hell this year was a disaster with Garland and Mobley going down for a long stretch yet Mitchell and Allen were so good that it didn't matter. Saying all that we should go out of our way to make things harder for them by going after Okoro this offseason. Worst case scenario we make them match a decent contract.

 

[sip]

Overconfidence bias

You are definitely coming from overconfidence bias. Nice to know you realize it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I feel like you have a really bad grasp on the cavs. There core group most definitely has a good shot to come out of the east a few times over the next 5 years. They also aren't a one man team so they aren't going to collapse either if one really bad thing happens. Hell this year was a disaster with Garland and Mobley going down for a long stretch yet Mitchell and Allen were so good that it didn't matter. Saying all that we should go out of our way to make things harder for them by going after Okoro this offseason. Worst case scenario we make them match a decent contract.

I have a great grasp on the Cavs lol. I think you have a bad grasp on the sustainability of their current team. For instance you suggest Donovan and Allen have carried them to winning which is correct. One or both of those guys will be off the roster in 2.5 years. It’s a virtual guarantee. Both hit free agency and Mobley will be on a spendy extension. So the guys that have shown less ability to stay on the court will be what they are relying on.

They are very good today, but what happens when you rob Peter to pay Paul? They leveraged their future to build this now. In a year or two they pay the piper. Anyone can tell you what they are seeing now. We are looking 2.5 years into the future. Trust me… garland, Don, Allen, Mobley will not all be there.

 

[sip]

I have a great grasp on the Cavs lol. I think you have a bad grasp on the sustainability of their current team. For instance you suggest Donovan and Allen have carried them to winning which is correct. One or both of those guys will be off the roster in 2.5 years. It’s a virtual guarantee. Both hit free agency and Mobley will be on a spendy extension. So the guys that have shown less ability to stay on the court will be what they are relying on.

They are very good today, but what happens when you rob Peter to pay Paul? They leveraged their future to build this now. In a year or two they pay the piper. Anyone can tell you what they are seeing now. We are looking 2.5 years into the future. Trust me… garland, Don, Allen, Mobley will not all be there.

It is definitely not a guarantee that one or both of Mitchell and Allen will be gone in 2.5 years. Garland on the other hand is probably moved and they should be able to get a pretty nice haul of picks plus a cost controlled young player or two to help them. They are in a very good situation and to act otherwise doesn't make sense.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It is definitely not a guarantee that one or both of Mitchell and Allen will be gone in 2.5 years. Garland on the other hand is probably moved and they should be able to get a pretty nice haul of picks plus a cost controlled young player or two to help them. They are in a very good situation and to act otherwise doesn't make sense.

There's no way in hell they are moving Garland unless Mitchell demands it to re-sign. Mitchell is gone. He's going to leave unless Cleveland makes it to the conference finals, and even then, he is probably going to NY or LA

 

[sip]

There's no way in hell they are moving Garland unless Mitchell demands it to re-sign. Mitchell is gone. He's going to leave unless Cleveland makes it to the conference finals, and even then, he is probably going to NY or LA

The obsession from this board about Mitchell leaving is out of control. He's in a good spot with the cavs. Also yeah they aren't going to trade Garland until Mitchell extends but when he does they likely move Garland to rework finances and roster setup with Mitchell playing his best at the 1.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The obsession from this board about Mitchell leaving is out of control. He's in a good spot with the cavs. Also yeah they aren't going to trade Garland until Mitchell extends but when he does they likely move Garland to rework finances and roster setup with Mitchell playing his best at the 1.

Trust me bud, it goes way beyond this board/Jazz fans.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It is definitely not a guarantee that one or both of Mitchell and Allen will be gone in 2.5 years. Garland on the other hand is probably moved and they should be able to get a pretty nice haul of picks plus a cost controlled young player or two to help them. They are in a very good situation and to act otherwise doesn't make sense.

It is because with those four they will be over 180m in salary or thereabouts. Mobley won’t be moved so Allen is likely the piece that bounces. Don is below 50/50 to be there in 2.5 years… even if he extends… so they will need to churn. Brooklyn sold off three superstars and got cost controlled pieces and picks… how’s that going?

I would bet large sums of money Cavs don’t make it to the finals in the next 5 years.

 

[homeytennis]

Sarah Todd's article made it pretty clear we will retain this year's pick unless a miracle happens. Hardy and Sarah basically said at the moment that Tay Henny sucks and Hardy hinted at a bad attitude. But he and Key and Brice are the future so we will see their names in lights for awhile.

 

[Tanktastic]

I would bet large sums of money Cavs don’t make it to the finals in the next 5 years.

But that's never been the issue. It's that the Cavs are more likely to be in the lottery than past the 1st round. Which they're not.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

But he and Key and Brice are the future so we will see their names in lights for awhile.

Good God that is depressing.

Can we at least stop the charade that Sensabaugh is an NBA player?

 

[HermanG]

I think the positive scenario is another lottery pick that can net you a potentially good player or a great trade asset. The team could play okay and just not be enough or load management happens. I see more positives the other way, which is why I hope for it but they are both fine at this point.

The pick is the result of how this season plays out. I questionned if there is a positive scenario that leads to that outcome.

Assuming that Hawks, Nets and Rockets hold their current win pct, that means they will end up with 36, 33 and 37 wins respectively.

So if that was the case and Atlanta doesnt get to the playoffs from the 10th seed, then we would need to go 10-18 the rest of the way to finish below the Rockets for the 10th spot (tied with Atlanta), and that 10-18 would be done in 16 home games and 12 road games. And even in that case, there is a chance that one of the 11-14 teams gets lucky in the lottery and we end up giving the #11 pick away.

 

[HermanG]

If Atlanta or Rockets dont improve their pace, we are going to have to be WORSE than we were at the start of the year where we started 10-18 with 13 home games and 15 road games.

This time we need to go 10-18 in 16 home games and 12 road games, and that would lead us to finish at 36 wins 1 below what Houston is projected (by win pct) to finish with.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But that's never been the issue. It's that the Cavs are more likely to be in the lottery than past the 1st round. Which they're not.

I understand. In the 5 years that we control their draft I will go ahead and guarantee at least once they will be in the lotto. It will be multiple times if Don bails on them.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

If Atlanta or Rockets dont improve their pace, we are going to have to be WORSE than we were at the start of the year where we started 10-18 with 13 home games and 15 road games.

This time we need to go 10-18 in 16 home games and 12 road games, and that would lead us to finish at 36 wins 1 below what Houston is projected (by win pct) to finish with.

Seems likely. The trades ****ed all working rotations. We will win few bad teams but lose almost every other game.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If Atlanta or Rockets dont improve their pace, we are going to have to be WORSE than we were at the start of the year where we started 10-18 with 13 home games and 15 road games.

This time we need to go 10-18 in 16 home games and 12 road games, and that would lead us to finish at 36 wins 1 below what Houston is projected (by win pct) to finish with.

One 5 game absence from Lauri, Collin, or Walker and I think we are set. #9 is the goal but #10 is okay too I guess. Atlanta seems to be playing better and Houston has no motivation to let the foot off the gas. Last 5-10 games are rest time and wouldn't be surprised if they win a few more than expected.

 

[HermanG]

Seems likely. The trades ****ed all working rotations. We will win few bad teams but lose almost every other game.

I dont think we will be that bad. Even last game, I think we missed a lot of shots we usually make on offense and we also took some bad shots. Wasnt a clean game, but we had pockets of good ball movement and rhythm (in the 2nd quarter there was one really good stretch). On defense we definitely werent on top of our assigments and rotations all the time but again we had stretches where we got them to rush their shots and/or forced them to take the shots we wanted to give.

I think the guard turnover fiasco that we had going early season was worse, and I dont think that will repeat.

Only positive scenario for that pick really is that if Rockets or Atlanta improve their pace significantly. I dont think thats out of the question, but we probably still need to drive our record well below .500 to keep it.

 

[HermanG]

One 5 game absence from Lauri, Collin, or Walker and I think we are set. #9 is the goal but #10 is okay too I guess. Atlanta seems to be playing better and Houston has no motivation to let the foot off the gas. Last 5-10 games are rest time and wouldn't be surprised if they win a few more than expected.

We need 10-18 with 16 home games. And that includes 8 home games against teams with a losing record.

Good thing for those who hope it happens is that our 12 road games are actually really tough. Only 1 against a team with a losing record (Atlanta).

 

[bigmike]

Generally don't like punting on drafts, but I do believe this draft sucks. Would much prefer to just take our medicine now and have 1-2 bites at the lottery apple for 2025 (non-zero chance that we and/or Cleveland suck next year if they sell early Donovan).