Do you want our pick to convey this year?

[Handlogten's Heros]

My big reason to convey is based on the 2026 draft. If it waits to convey until 2026, then we have no first round pick and our picks swaps with Minnesota and Cleveland that year become 100% useless. We go from having the best pick of the three teams to having none at all.

this to me is the only valid reason to want to convey. BUT the chances that Minny and Cleveland are so bad that the swap becomes meaningful is low imo. Anyone can have an injury plagued season though. Maybe the Cavs decide to ride out Donovan's deal until FA (I think they move him this offseason) and lose him for nothing? Are they a bottom 10 team then?

I would guess that we are more likely the worse of the 3 teams there but the low probability that one of those teams is terrible and you cost yourself a top 7-8 pick swap is the only catastrophic result. I think the chances that one of those teams are bad and hit lottery luck would be like less than 5%-10% chance?

 

[Doc Cherno]

I'm fine with winning a few games and conveying the pick in a week draft, then using that cap space this summer and picking up a draft pick next year.

 

[bigmike]

Going back to the deadline I really didn’t think we could trade enough (within reason) to drop squarely into the top 10.

Boy was I wrong. #7-8 feels entirely possible if we keep this up.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Going back to the deadline I really didn’t think we could trade enough (within reason) to drop squarely into the top 10.

Boy was I wrong. #7-8 feels entirely possible if we keep this up.

It’d be a long shot that one of Toronto or Brooklyn passes us. Toronto is solid but Brooklyn is trash right now. 4 games up with 23 to go is a big gap.

 

[Shad]

I said we wouldnt win more than 10 games to send the season, it's looking really good

 

[HermanG]

this to me is the only valid reason to want to convey. BUT the chances that Minny and Cleveland are so bad that the swap becomes meaningful is low imo. Anyone can have an injury plagued season though. Maybe the Cavs decide to ride out Donovan's deal until FA (I think they move him this offseason) and lose him for nothing? Are they a bottom 10 team then?

I would guess that we are more likely the worse of the 3 teams there but the low probability that one of those teams is terrible and you cost yourself a top 7-8 pick swap is the only catastrophic result. I think the chances that one of those teams are bad and hit lottery luck would be like less than 5%-10% chance?

If we convey we also release 1 additional pick from trade restrictions and are able to deal our own 2025 or 2026 pick, both of which would be very valuable chips to bargain with. But that benefit is realized only if we plan to really start building up before that 2026 draft.

If we stay put or tear it down further, then we are almost guaranteed to lose in conveying this year.

 

[Ron Mexico]

If we convey we also release 1 additional pick from trade restrictions and are able to deal our own 2025 or 2026 pick, both of which would be very valuable chips to bargain with. But that benefit is realized only if we plan to really start building up before that 2026 draft.

If we stay put or tear it down further, then we are almost guaranteed to lose in conveying this year.

At this point I want to keep the pick and think we will keep the pick. But this is a good reason for wanting to convey it. It also means our guys and particularly our young guys play well and win us a lot of games. Which is obviously great for us and means we have a great future and those were good picks which is huge and worth a lot.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we convey we also release 1 additional pick from trade restrictions and are able to deal our own 2025 or 2026 pick, both of which would be very valuable chips to bargain with. But that benefit is realized only if we plan to really start building up before that 2026 draft.

If we stay put or tear it down further, then we are almost guaranteed to lose in conveying this year.

We addressed this though. We have 8 tradeable picks from other teams already. We have 2 of our own picks we could trade. On draft night if the pick doesn't convey we will have a top 10 pick plus 10 other picks to trade. There are no trades on the horizon that will require that many picks. If we are getting player or players THAT good then our 2025 and 2026 picks wouldn't be that valuable. I'd argue a top 10 pick this year (maybe top 4 with some luck) is a better trade chip even in a poor draft than our 2025 or 2026 pick... which we absolutely would have some protections on unless we were getting like Luka.

I think even on trade value the top 10 pick is a more tradeable/valuable chip that we would more realistically trade. Someone might prefer our 2028 1st unprotected but we'd be less likely to move that imo.

For me the only valid argument for team convey is the swap in 2026. The swap value depends on Minny or Cavs being terrible. It can happen... its a valid concern... its just not something I would predict will happen. I would bet pretty large sums of money that neither team is bottom 8 next year.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If you told me we wouldn't get Sheppard, Knecht, or Furphy with the top 10 pick we have, I would rather convey. (Or something wild like the Jazz jump into the top 3 and get Topic).

The whitest top 10 since the 50s