Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[Basketball Novice]

i just read the little summary, but the supposed bailey/bosh comp is very funny.

I honestly don't know how Bosh looked in college so I looked it up. 56% FG and 47.8% 3FG (low volume) with 1 steal and 2.2 blocks per game. The stats look incredible. For anyone who knows, how did Bosh look in college? And does the Ace/Bosh comparison make sense? It doesn't pass the smell test to me but I'm not all that familiar with Bosh.

 

[KqWIN]

Buddy Hield with a supremely high care factor and a high level processor is a pretty great player tbh.

I want to see the measurements on Kon but I think he's much closer to Bane than Hield/Kennard.

Tre Johnson is the one who reminds me a lot of Buddy. Elite movement shooter and off the dribble shooter...but also can't attack the basket. If he can get better as a slasher he can be very, very good but I'm not so optimistic about that.

I don't think Kon has the same versatility to his jumper, but he's a better prospect in most other aspects. Kon is more like Brice with high level IQ, and to me that's a pretty special player.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I honestly don't know how Bosh looked in college so I looked it up. 56% FG and 47.8% 3FG (low volume) with 1 steal and 2.2 blocks per game. The stats look incredible. For anyone who knows, how did Bosh look in college? And does the Ace/Bosh comparison make sense? It doesn't pass the smell test to me but I'm not all that familiar with Bosh.

I mean Bosh was the 4th overall pick in possibly hte best draft of all time. He was very good.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I honestly don't know how Bosh looked in college so I looked it up. 56% FG and 47.8% 3FG (low volume) with 1 steal and 2.2 blocks per game. The stats look incredible. For anyone who knows, how did Bosh look in college? And does the Ace/Bosh comparison make sense? It doesn't pass the smell test to me but I'm not all that familiar with Bosh.

i mean, it's less good vs bad, more the fact that bosh was a big man who played some 5 in the nba when he wasn't playing the 4, while Bailey is a guard/wing. just a weird comparison from that standpoint.

 

[cowhide]

If the Jazz don't get the #1 pick then tanking was not worth it. I certainly don't want to tank again because there is no guarantee of the top pick. Was not impressed with the Duke center during the NCAA tournament. His hands were made of stone and his offense was limited.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

If the Jazz don't get the #1 pick then tanking was not worth it. I certainly don't want to tank again because there is no guarantee of the top pick. Was not impressed with the Duke center during the NCAA tournament. His hands were made of stone and his offense was limited.

you should understand you can get a star, even a superstar outside the #1 overall pick and sometimes the #1 pick is underwhelming. iow, if the jazz get a star (something we may not know for a couple years at least) at 2,3,4,5, it was worth the tank.

 

[kcgar]

If the Jazz don't get the #1 pick then tanking was not worth it. I certainly don't want to tank again because there is no guarantee of the top pick. Was not impressed with the Duke center during the NCAA tournament. His hands were made of stone and his offense was limited.

So you want to win slightly more games, so we can get an even worse pick. Makes sense.

 

[kcgar]

Trolls back lol

It doesn't make any sense why a troll would have themselves look dumber than they are. Occam's razor just says they are dumb.

 

[KqWIN]

I listened to Locke's portion on Ace....It's hard to strongly disagree with anything that he's saying...but if you had doubts about Ace, it probably won't change your opinion and might even reinforce some of the doubts/concerns you have. He didn't really address any concern and it really feels like he's extrapolating a lot from watching a single game.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I listened to Locke's portion on Ace....It's hard to strongly disagree with anything that he's saying...but if you had doubts about Ace, it probably won't change your opinion and might even reinforce some of the doubts/concerns you have. He didn't really address any concern and it really feels like he's extrapolating a lot from watching a single game.

I mean, he tells you in plain language he is not an expert and he is just watching a few games. Ace played his best games vs the best competition for the most part, so if you are just watching the marquee games, he is going to look great.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I listened to Locke's portion on Ace....It's hard to strongly disagree with anything that he's saying...but if you had doubts about Ace, it probably won't change your opinion and might even reinforce some of the doubts/concerns you have. He didn't really address any concern and it really feels like he's extrapolating a lot from watching a single game.

ugh. i hate the idea of even trying to evaluate a guy based on one game (edit: just read Cy's comment and it sounds like Locke admits as much). even as an Ace fan and even if that one game makes Ace look good.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

i'll say another semi-anti-ace bailey comment here. all season, people have been saying he's 6'10 and of course locke is saying that as well. as somebody who watched 30 rutgers games last year, i'd be shocked if he measures at 6'10". it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Bailey come it at 6'7.25"-6'7.75" without shoes and around 6'9" - 6'8.75" in shoes. still great size for a guard, but i don't see this supposed 6'10" dude out there. again, sort of irrelevant because he has elite length for his position either way, but it will be interesting to see those measurements come in.

as much as locke likes bailey, if he realized he turned 18 right before the college season he'd like him even more. multiple times he says he's a 19 year old.

 

[KqWIN]

I mean, he tells you in plain language he is not an expert and he is just watching a few games. Ace played his best games vs the best competition for the most part, so if you are just watching the marquee games, he is going to look great.

OK? I never said he was being dishonest. Being open about it doesn't change the analysis he's doing.

 

[KqWIN]

ugh. i hate the idea of even trying to evaluate a guy based on one game (edit: just read Cy's comment and it sounds like Locke admits as much). even as an Ace fan and even if that one game makes Ace look good.

I think you can take a lot away from a single game, especially if you watch it in it's entirety. There's a lot to be learned from watching unclipped footage which is why I've made a lot of posts doing essentially the same thing as he's doing. But you do have to be careful to take too much from one game, and I think it's a lot better when you have some context of what to watch for ahead of time. Going in blind and forming very strong/rigid opinions is not the best way to go about it. Like I said earlier, if you had doubts about Bailey this kind of thing is definitely not going to change those doubts.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

i'll say another semi-anti-ace bailey comment here. all season, people have been saying he's 6'10 and of course locke is saying that as well. as somebody who watched 30 rutgers games last year, i'd be shocked if he measures at 6'10". it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Bailey come it at 6'7.25"-6'7.75" without shoes and around 6'9" - 6'8.75" in shoes. still great size for a guard, but i don't see this supposed 6'10" dude out there. again, sort of irrelevant because he has elite length for his position either way, but it will be interesting to see those measurements come in.

as much as locke likes bailey, if he realized he turned 18 right before the college season he'd like him even more. multiple times he says he's a 19 year old.

If anything I think he might be taller than 6'10 in shoes. One of the youngest players, could have easily put on another half inch to inch since the start of the Rutgers season.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Sometimes the hardest questions on a test are the ones that appear easy but they trick you by making you think they are an easy question. I think Ace Bailey is the draft version of that question.

6-10 young athlete that can shoot... don't overthink it.

Can he shoot? Like there are some bad misses. Watch the free throws... they miss and some are off.
How athletic is he if he never really gets to the rim? He's an impactful defender sometimes.
He's young... is that why his game processing seems bad? Or is he just not gonna get there.

I'm probably making the bet at three but Locke makes it like its an easy decision and I don't think it is at all.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

If the Jazz don't get the #1 pick then tanking was not worth it. I certainly don't want to tank again because there is no guarantee of the top pick. Was not impressed with the Duke center during the NCAA tournament. His hands were made of stone and his offense was limited.

By tanking we ensured that we can pick one of the guys we realistically can say they have a chance to be a star.

 

[My2Cents]

Buddy Hield with a supremely high care factor and a high level processor is a pretty great player tbh.

I want to see the measurements on Kon but I think he's much closer to Bane than Hield/Kennard.

Ringer's primary comp is Gordon Hayward...with a little Kennard and Sczerbiak sprinkled in.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Sometimes the hardest questions on a test are the ones that appear easy but they trick you by making you think they are an easy question. I think Ace Bailey is the draft version of that question.

6-10 young athlete that can shoot... don't overthink it.

Can he shoot? Like there are some bad misses. Watch the free throws... they miss and some are off.
How athletic is he if he never really gets to the rim? He's an impactful defender sometimes.
He's young... is that why his game processing seems bad? Or is he just not gonna get there.

I'm probably making the bet at three but Locke makes it like its an easy decision and I don't think it is at all.

I think in practical terms people do overthink it. Ace is a long wing who can shoot over the top of defenders, fill the lane, rebound and possibly secondary rim protect. He has a high center of gravity and narrow hips that basically kill his first step, so he doesn't really drive on guys from a cold start. He's probably an off-ball, second-option scorer who might look like Trey Murphy or possibly Brandon Miller. The assumption is that he'll be a good enough shooter and that coaches can put him in situations to succeed. So take it or leave it. Either you want the archetype or you don't. No one knows if these guys are going to hit their ceiling.

He should get to the rim more in the pros because college pace and space suck and everyone gets to the rim better in the pros. I'm learning this after being disappointed by how little guys like Stephon Castle and Brandon Miller got to the rim in college.

 

[KqWIN]

Sometimes the hardest questions on a test are the ones that appear easy but they trick you by making you think they are an easy question. I think Ace Bailey is the draft version of that question.

6-10 young athlete that can shoot... don't overthink it.

Can he shoot? Like there are some bad misses. Watch the free throws... they miss and some are off.
How athletic is he if he never really gets to the rim? He's an impactful defender sometimes.
He's young... is that why his game processing seems bad? Or is he just not gonna get there.

I'm probably making the bet at three but Locke makes it like its an easy decision and I don't think it is at all.

Yeah....I struggle when people are so quick to dismiss or don't acknowledge weaknesses in the name of "don't overthink it". You don't have to overthink most athletic wings who can shoot because a lot of the concerns you have with Ace are taken care of. A 6'10 athlete should have no problem getting to the rim and free throw line....but what if they can't? Is it overthinking it because you're not automatically dismissing those concerns because it normally wouldn't be a concern with a guy that athletic?

I also struggle with the strong assumptions made about his shooting. I do think he's better than the numbers suggest, but it's not really a black/white thing if he can shoot or not. Yeah I think he can shoot, but making the assumption he's as good of a shooter as guys who were significantly better shooters is another thing. For example, a lot of people will point to someone like MPJ if the off the dribble stuff doesn't materialize in the NBA. That could be true, but also understand that it's a big leap to just assume he can fall back on being an elite off ball shooter. And if you show skepticism about that....you must be overthinking it of course.

I still like Ace as a top 4 prospect, but it's not because of "don't overthink it". It's more of the idea that he's a blank slate, which is dependent on his coachability and how ingrained his bad habits are.