Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick

[SoberasHotRod]

If the Jazz have a preference for who they want outside the top 2, they should do that deal, or offer a young player instead of #21. Then do the exact same thing next year.

For me personally, it's too difficult to say who is for sure the best prospect between Tre, VJ, and Ace. So I really don't want to give up assets to trade up.

At the same time I think it's likely that one of those three is significantly better than the others in the end, and if the FO figures out who that is then I think trading up makes sense.

 

[NUMBERICA]

He said yes

Jackpotting Around has motion

Y’all’s hits this early out the gate is really impressive.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

For me personally, it's too difficult to say who is for sure the best prospect between Tre, VJ, and Ace. So I really don't want to give up assets to trade up.

At the same time I think it's likely that one of those three is significantly better than the others in the end, and if the FO figures out who that is then I think trading up makes sense.

That's why I said "if the Jazz have a preference..." If they don't, then sure, sit at 5 and wait for your guy to show up. I'm guessing they'll have a preference.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I have this nagging feeling in the back of my head that there is something off with Ace. I cant point my finger on one thing and prove my point with solid arguments... but my gut says he is 2025 drafts overadvertized promiseware.

Call me idiot all you want... but Id rather have Tre or VJ.

You’re not an idiot. I want Tre out of all three.

 

[r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t]

I have more faith in Cody than most only because of how damn good his brother is. Son’s of NBA players end up great pros usually. I don’t think that’ll be too different for brothers. I think Cody works his *** off in all ways this off-season.

How many brothers do you think all of the players in the NBA have, altogether? 100? 200? And how many of those are currently in the NBA? Hardly any.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

If dealing 21 is the difference between getting one of Ace/Tre vs VJ, Id do it

in

I’d move up to 3 to get VJ

5 + 21 for 3

That’s gross

 

[kcgar]

If it is Ace who falls to 5 then just trade down. To me this draft is 4 man deep. I'd take prospects in the late lottery/teens over Ace.

This is how I am starting to feel. I am getting much more hyped about Fleming, Carter Bryant, Essengue, and Yang.

I am trade up for VJ or trade out. I am very scared of Ace’s mental issues, which I think cause a lot of his on court weaknesses. The more I watch him the more I think he won’t be great. He won’t bust but he won’t be close to a star. I am also very scared of Tre’s defense. Watching the Hoop Intellect on his defense was one of the worst defensive lowlights I have ever seen. On some plays it looked like he was trying to play defense but was scared to touch the other guy and would let them go around him. There was one play that he was so late that he tried to contest a shot and block it after it had hit the back board. Almost like he was delayed or something. Defense is very important for me overall. I prefer a player that is 60-40 defense and offense Tre’s defense turned me off of him.

I think Carter Bryant could end up being as good as VJ or close. Then partner him up with one of the other guys I mentioned above and that would be great. Even though we tanked so hard I would still happy if we went that direction

 

[kcgar]

You’re not an idiot. I want Tre out of all three.

I was like you and was hyped after I saw Tre’s workout highlights and measurements. Then I watched his defensive highlights on the Hoops Intellect video and it was disgustingly. It was atrocious like I have never seen. I’m completely off him.


View: https://youtu.be/jXZCEWBFZjU?si=4h4KmLr1upB1JMnz


Start at 10:56

 

[NUMBERICA]

For me personally, it's too difficult to say who is for sure the best prospect between Tre, VJ, and Ace. So I really don't want to give up assets to trade up.

At the same time I think it's likely that one of those three is significantly better than the others in the end, and if the FO figures out who that is then I think trading up makes sense.

Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).

 

[HermanG]

You’re not an idiot. I want Tre out of all three.

I'm actually leaning that way as well. I think his offensive load excuses some coasting on defense, but thats hopium and not really part of the reason why I like him.

He is a flamethrower who engages a lot with the crowd and draws energy from them much like JC. But unlike JC he doesnt do extended search dribbles and generally plays a lot quicker and more modern style of basketball in half-court offense. He has shown that he can find guys and make some good passes as well, even if he ddnt really do that a lot in college. He can shoot from anywhere and from any state (stationary, movement, off driible, on balance, off balance)... Its also hard not to love almost 40% from 3 on almost 7 attempts and 87% FT shooting. That will command gravity in the NBA, so even if he ends up being a role player he will still have a career. Plus he is absolutely killing the combine workouts based on what I've seen.

I think he has AS potential, and if Cooper Flagg doesnt win ROTY for some reason I would be willing to bet Tre wins it (his game will probably translate faster than that of Harper, Ace and VJ).

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).

Yeah, I get that. I think it comes down to how random you think the draft is vs how skilled at drafting you think our FO is/ should be. They have a lot more information/ time/ resources/ experience that should make them more likely to pick the right player. However, history suggests that they might not be that much better than the average amateur draft nerd.

How much of a prospects future is predictable based on the information a front office has available to them? People on this message board often speak with the kind of bravado that would make you think they are capable of making those predictions with far less information. In reality, it feel like you can only guess with about 25% accuracy, so I would tend to agree that I would prefer more chances to get it right. I guess I still hope that our FO can be better than that, but it's mostly unfounded hope.

 

[fishonjazz]

I am very scared of Ace’s mental issues

Im just curious what his mental issues are. Can you list them and provide sources or links to them?

 

[fishonjazz]

Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).

I got called stupid for this same take. Shrug

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).

The issue is just that we are going to have too many guys very soon.

Already 7 guys on rookie contracts, most of them were one and done, 6 are still in need of a lot of development. One has barely played in the NBA due to injury.

 

[fishonjazz]

The issue is just that we are going to have too many guys very soon.

Already 7 guys on rookie contracts, most of them were one and done, 6 are still in need of a lot of development. One has barely played in the NBA due to injury.

Get rid of the vets. Then there is plenty of minutes and development for everyone. Get more bites of the apple and find out which bites taste good. There will almost certainly be injuries. There will be dudes going back and forth to the g-league and jazz roster too.

 

[fishonjazz]

Just saw a ranking of college basketball shooting guards from lasts season done by something called "CBK Report" and they have Kon #1, Tre #5, and VJ #9. (have richie saunders at #4 fwiw)

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/DJsN0pUS80j/#

 

[Elizah Huge]

I got called stupid for this same take. Shrug

No, you said you wouldn’t trade 21 because whoever we pick at 21 could be as good as who we pick at 5.

While that is true, the % is super small, and with that logic no team should trade any picks ever.

 

[underdog]

I'd rather hold onto our #21 pick because with this year's prospects in the #3-5 range, it's tough to predict what they will be after 4-5 years. Not enough separation there for me.

 

[The Midnight]

I'd rather hold onto our #21 pick because with this year's prospects in the #3-5 range, it's tough to predict what they will be after 4-5 years. Not enough separation there for me.

Cute dog.

 

[underdog]

Draft Pick	Probability of Becoming an All-Star
1	63%
2-3	48%
4-6	28%
7-12	16%
13-20	11%
21-30	5%
2. round	2.5%

I once put together the above table to give a basic idea of the probability of a draft pick becoming an All-Star (based on 30 drafts from 1989 to 2019 and players selected for All-Star Games). The odds of a #5 pick turning into an All-Star were 28% during those 30 years (roughly once every 4 years). I believe these odds are higher this year, and our #5 pick should give us a pretty solid player (even if he never becomes an All Star).