Which is literally not the lottery.
Do you think our FO has Ace, Tre and VJ ranked 3-5?
- Thread starter HermanG
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HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Yeah, we can't extrapolate any information from the George pick because he was two spots after the lottery.
Cody and Keyonte were the two picks the Jazz absolutely adored and were super excited about and they share a couple things in common.
1. Were out of shape in college (Keyonte was a few pounds too fat, Cody 40 pounds underweight)
2. Were one and done kids.
3. Were elite interviewers who seemed extremely intelligent off the court even though their on-court intelligence didn't seem to match up.
4. Neither had great tools at all.
5. Both had some ball handling/shot creation ability but were not great at it.
But Keyonte had no length at all so it's hard to say they value length that much. Collier and Filipowski also have short arms (very short in Filipowski's case)
But the Jazz have benched Keyonte and Cody is on his way out of the league so who knows how their approach will change.
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I just think there is a world of difference between your mindset selecting with your first pick at 5 and and your 2nd pick at 16.
Jazz reportedly like positional size, length, athleticism and shooting/potential. They may concede that none of these 18 or 19 year-olds are ready to defend. They may also believe they can improve a prospect's shooting.
Ace and Tre would make sense. Fears and Kon might be iffy, imo.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Have the Jazz picked any athletic players other than Hendricks? Brice, Collier, and Filipowski all fell because they were perceived as not athletic enough for the NBA. George and Cody Williams have very questionable athleticism as well.
And length wise, Collier, Filipowski, and George are not lighting the world on fire at all.
They've mostly picked guys with shot creation, with all of their draft picks other than Hendricks all being shot creators in college. That would lead to a Kon/Ace/Fears/Queen/Tre focus and maybe not being interested in VJ or Maluach.
My take:
Tier 1: Flagg
Tier 2: Harper
Tier 3: Tre and Ace
Tier 4: VJ and Maluach
Tier 5: The rest
If Tre and Ace are off the board, I think the Jazz would have a very difficult decision to make.
Maluach could anchor our defense for the next 10 years AND not be a burden on offense. His shooting could only get better and he’s already a very good passer too.
Maluach also fits our timeline much better than Kessler.
Offer Kessler to the Lakers for Knecht - same deal as what the Hornets got - win/win.
Tier 1: Flagg
Tier 2: Harper
Tier 3: Tre and Ace
Tier 4: VJ and Maluach
Tier 5: The rest
If Tre and Ace are off the board, I think the Jazz would have a very difficult decision to make.
Maluach could anchor our defense for the next 10 years AND not be a burden on offense. His shooting could only get better and he’s already a very good passer too.
Maluach also fits our timeline much better than Kessler.
Offer Kessler to the Lakers for Knecht - same deal as what the Hornets got - win/win.
2024
Cody over Buzelis
Draft was kind of a crap shoot, but they obviously really loved Cody and would have drafted him higher. Buzelis and Cody were probably in the same tier by the consensus.
Maybe of note, but the other guy we heard about them liking was Edey
2023
Hendricks
They had to settle for Hendricks, JZ was open about this as odd as that was. While it’s clear they weren’t as enthusiastic to take him, it may be worth nothing that they did not “reach” for anyone else.
Reportedly loved Bilal here and and Hardy also loved Black. WAS for sure had to pay up to avoid UTA trading up to 7 and getting Bilal themselves.
Some Year
Brown
IIRC, the draft was a crapshoot at 3. But most people had it being Dunn or Bender. This was somewhat of a surprise and not a clear choice.
Some year before the other year
Tatum over Jackson and Fultz.
This was the big bet. Fultz was considered the clear number one and DA traded down. At #3, a lot of people had Jackson instead. Between Jackson and Tatum, I think Jackson was definitely the more athletic prospect. Tatum was more skilled and a smarter player. Character wise Jackson had some red flags as well.
Cody over Buzelis
Draft was kind of a crap shoot, but they obviously really loved Cody and would have drafted him higher. Buzelis and Cody were probably in the same tier by the consensus.
Maybe of note, but the other guy we heard about them liking was Edey
2023
Hendricks
They had to settle for Hendricks, JZ was open about this as odd as that was. While it’s clear they weren’t as enthusiastic to take him, it may be worth nothing that they did not “reach” for anyone else.
Reportedly loved Bilal here and and Hardy also loved Black. WAS for sure had to pay up to avoid UTA trading up to 7 and getting Bilal themselves.
Some Year
Brown
IIRC, the draft was a crapshoot at 3. But most people had it being Dunn or Bender. This was somewhat of a surprise and not a clear choice.
Some year before the other year
Tatum over Jackson and Fultz.
This was the big bet. Fultz was considered the clear number one and DA traded down. At #3, a lot of people had Jackson instead. Between Jackson and Tatum, I think Jackson was definitely the more athletic prospect. Tatum was more skilled and a smarter player. Character wise Jackson had some red flags as well.
Cody was seen as having size/length/athleticism and shooting potential. Collier has enough size and athleticism for a PG. Flip has size and enough athleticism too. They were also later picks. Brice is also a great value at #28.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Nah, Collier fell because he was considered way too small and unexplosive to score inside (he has one of the worst standing vertical leap + standing reach figures in recent NBA history) in the NBA and teams viewed that as a death sentence considering how bad his outside shot is. Filipowski fell due to character concerns but also due to scouts viewing him as trapped because the 4 and 5, with him being too small and unexplosive to play the 5 while not being quick or skilled enough to play the 4. Cody has size and length, but very little athleticism (as heavily suggested by his terrible block+steal+rebounding numbers in college), with his athleticism being a pure projection out of the hope that he would gain 40 good pounds of weight.
Collier is pretty weird/interesting in terms of tools because he's already like a 98+ percentile guy in terms of quickness, but he just has no explosion whatsoever.
RandyForRubio
Well-Known Member
Like Cy said, depending on how they view the board and where the pick is, you’re more likely going to ignore athleticism limitations. The middle of the 1st, late 1st, etc, you can deal with athleticism limitations because the options are limited. You can deal with length limitations because the options are limited. At pick #5, that viewpoint more than likely isn’t there. They’re going to want length and athleticism to go with the skill. In other words, because they’re picking high they’re less likely to make concessions on a prospect.
fishonjazz
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Lololol. Almost spit out my coffee
fishonjazz
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I think the answer is yes
We know for sure Ainge likes guys with pedigree. 4 out of our last 6 first-round picks were top-7 in RSCI. Hendricks and Sensabaugh being the two outliers.
He also drafted Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Langford all in the lottery who were all top-10 in RSCI as well. He selected Young at 16th overall in the same draft as Smart in 2014 who was top-10 in RSCI too.
If we go back even further he drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo with back-to-back first-round picks in 2012. Sullinger (2nd in RCSI) and Melo (14th in RCSI).
This obviously isn’t the only data point because there are a few outliers but that’s enough to me that it is definitely a data point he heavily considers.
The top-5 RSCI this year you make ask?
Flagg
Ace
Harper
VJ
Tre
McNeeley, Powell, Newell, Queen, Knueppel, Bryant were all also in the top-20.
He also drafted Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Langford all in the lottery who were all top-10 in RSCI as well. He selected Young at 16th overall in the same draft as Smart in 2014 who was top-10 in RSCI too.
If we go back even further he drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo with back-to-back first-round picks in 2012. Sullinger (2nd in RCSI) and Melo (14th in RCSI).
This obviously isn’t the only data point because there are a few outliers but that’s enough to me that it is definitely a data point he heavily considers.
The top-5 RSCI this year you make ask?
Flagg
Ace
Harper
VJ
Tre
McNeeley, Powell, Newell, Queen, Knueppel, Bryant were all also in the top-20.
That's wild that the top 5 HS prospects are generally considered the top 5 picks in the draft. That's fairly rare. Usually always one huge disappointment in there.
It honestly is. The closest most recently was 2021.
Top-5 was Cade, Green, Mobley, Boston, Barnes. 4/5 went top-4. Suggs who went 5th was 7th in RSCI.
2017 was really close. Top-6 was Jackson, Giles, Ball, Tatum, Fultz, Fox. 5/6 went top-5 with Giles being the outlier.
2012 had 3/5 with Davis, MKG, Beal. Same with 2010 with Favors, Wall, Cousins.
2008 almost had it spot on. Mayo, Love, Gordon, Beasley, Rose. 4/5 went top-4 and Gordon went 7th.
Before that, Avery Bradley and way before that he took a chance on Al Jefferson and Gerald Green from HS back to back years. Safe to say that DA puts an emphasis on the HS stuff and that poor/disappointing college performance won't deter him too much.
Williams was not an athlete though. Buzelis for sure was.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
I love the idea that Williams, a lethargic kid with zero fast twitch in his body, would put on a lot of weight/muscle and somehow become explosive.
It doesn't work like that. He'd probably lose what little speed he has.
It doesn't work like that. He'd probably lose what little speed he has.
Jefferson was 3rd in RSCI in 2004! Bradley was 4th in 2009!
Leon Powe was 9th in 2003 and Ainge took him in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft.