Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yeah, watching the Hardwood Hoops Fears video, I see no hitch. I really cant respect some of y'alls draft takes when they seem so baseless.

 

[KqWIN]

I don't think #LockeWatch is a thing anymore with the new FO.....but he really likes Will Riley and it seems to be just because he likes him. He cited a good isolation efficiency number, but otherwise just a bunch of mid numbers. Doesn't align with how he evaluates or talks about other prospects, so I'm guessing he has an opinion from someone he respects/trusts that's making him like Riley a lot.

Will Riley might be good, but I can't shake the idea that he's a randomly generated player.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Yeah, watching the Hardwood Hoops Fears video, I see no hitch. I really cant respect some of y'alls draft takes when they seem so baseless.

Watch the video I posted and look how unnaturally he starts throwing the ball at the very end.

He takes tons of threes in this game and outside of heaves, every jumpshot has this unnatural acceleration at the end as he just flings the ball at the basket.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

I died. Literally said he's "thick downstairs" and I was like "pause".

He then compared him to Kispert/Harris and I was immediately irritated. Said he will struggle at the rim (which might be true) but I believe cited VJ better cuz he can jump high... and he struggled. I just think there is more craft to finishing at the rim these days than "jump high". Kon supposedly has a float game from HS that he didn't do much since it wasn't a shot they liked... I just think there is more than Kispert/Harris... like if those guys could pass and handle they are much different players.

Are "that's what she said" references appropriate here?

 

[Bodhi]

I mean, nothing Im saying about Collier is me saying I think he sucks. He's just a very bad shooter. Hopefully he gets better, but Fears is just a much much better shooting prospect than Collier. It's wild to me how stupid some people are choosing to be on this.

Again, just watch the way Collier shoots. He has erratic misses for a reason. A lot of shooters in the NBA arent great, but they usually get it to hit inside rim which shows precision and consistency. Collier does not have that currently (but I do think he was improving as the year went on).

I dont think drafting Fears is an indictment on Collier. You just have to take BPA.

Yeah, not fully directed at you.

And I actually know what you mean, and see the same, on Fears and his shot.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Watch the video I posted and look how unnaturally he starts throwing the ball at the very end.

He takes tons of threes in this game and outside of heaves, every jumpshot has this unnatural acceleration at the end as he just flings the ball at the basket.

Im watching evry possession and shot hes taken. There is no hitch. He needs to smooth out his mechanics and consistency (you can say that about every prospect save the most elite ones). His base mechanics and form are good.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

11:28. Clean open C&S, no hitch.

I haven't seen anyone so determined to die on a certain hill since Custer and the Little Big Horn.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Cody Williams was very obvious. Basically as soon as you heard him speak, it was a slam dunk that was he was going to be picked by the Jazz at 10. Here's me on Reddit immediately after the combine.


View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UtahJazz/comments/1cuf7k1/think_that_cody_williams_is_currently_in_the_lead/


The issue is how much the Jazz's draft process has changed since picking Cody. "Extremely intelligent off the court but doesn't show it on the court yet" immediately suggests Coward as a guy they love, but who knows if they're going with a very different philosophy after Cody was bad and Keyonte was ehh.

If it was very obvious you should have made a killing. He was +650 to get selected at 10 by the Jazz on draft day.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm not a shot doctor, but there's just this shot form stuff must be trolling. It's like looking under the bed for the boogeyman or something. He shot 28% from 3, you don't have to be so extra to be critical.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

If it was very obvious you should have made a killing. He was +650 to get selected at 10 by the Jazz on draft day.

The question about Cody was whether he would get to 10, there were tons of rumors about him going 5th to the Pistons or 6th to the Hornets as no one knew what those new GMs liked.

As of this time last year, I was extremely confident the Jazz would pick Cody if he was at 10 (I wanted Topic or McCain, but had Cody 12th so I was whatever about the pick. He's been much worse than I expected). I have almost no confidence about who the Jazz will pick this year. I could see the Jazz trading up to 3, trading down to 9 and drafting any of Ace, VJ, Kon, Tre, Fears, Maluach, Queen, or Egor. I do think the Jazz will probably pick Coward if he's available at 21, but Drake Powell if he's not.

 

[framer]

Their styles are quite different.

Collier is more of a straight line driver with speed and strength. Fears is a guy who uses his dribble to create space and separation. Collier is faster in a straight line while Fears is more dynamic with where and when he can score.

Collier's strengths are a bit more based on his combination of strength and speed along with his passing vision.

Fears is the more skilled player dribbling/getting to his spots and looks to have the better jumper (it looks much more comfortable)

I would consider Fears a 3 level scorer while Collier is a bit shakier with the 3 and mid range.


At the NBA level:
Collier as of now is a facilitator who scores sometimes but has inconsistent shooting, a nice pass first pg type (albeit one who turns it over a ton). A decent player to have but not one I build around. Maybe he shows us more in year 2 but thats my initial take on him.

Fears can be an elite 3 level scorer if he fully incorporates the off the dribble 3s and continues to build strength.


I'm of the mind to agree with Cy on this one. I think I do prefer Fears to VJ after looking through Fears' stuff. Fears has the potential to become the true 1A elite scoring talent that the Jazz need. I'm less confident that VJ has the same potential.

Whoa there, there is nothing about Fears that suggests "Elite 3 level scoring." Come on. Possible 3 level scoring, possibly, not probably, and certainly not elite.

A probable outcome for him as a scorer is closer to Keyonte George, who may be an as good or better facilitator.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm not a shot doctor, but there's just this shot form stuff must be trolling. It's like looking under the bed for the boogeyman or something. He shot 28% from 3, you don't have to be so extra to be critical.

Just to clarify this....if you think Fears has awful form and a hitch, I really don't know what player doesn't. Seems make believe to me.

 

[framer]

Cody Williams was very obvious. Basically as soon as you heard him speak, it was a slam dunk that was he was going to be picked by the Jazz at 10. Here's me on Reddit immediately after the combine.


View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UtahJazz/comments/1cuf7k1/think_that_cody_williams_is_currently_in_the_lead/


The issue is how much the Jazz's draft process has changed since picking Cody. "Extremely intelligent off the court but doesn't show it on the court yet" immediately suggests Coward as a guy they love, but who knows if they're going with a very different philosophy after Cody was bad and Keyonte was ehh.

At 16, Keyonte was a tremendous pick. What are you even on about. . .

 

[KqWIN]

I've posted this before, but found it again and think it's still relevant.

NBA Draft: Prediction of NBA Three-Point Shooting using College Shooting Data

In the NBA draft world, the debate about using college stats as NBA predictors is hotly contested and ever-present in prospect discourse.

hoopsandhoos.substack.com

- Debunks the myth that college FT% is a better indicator of NBA 3pt% than college 3pt%
- A model that combines 3pt%, FT% and 3PA, similar to what I believe Tankathon is using, is the best prediction tool.
- The model still has inherent errors in the fact that it can't differentiate between the types of shots taken (self generated vs assisted vs guarded, etc.)

So just to add to this, I've linked a couple more articles on this topic. It will depend on the design and methods of the study, but I think we can say that FT% is at least worthy of being mentioned each time and probably as good as raw 3FG%. I think this is always changing as both the college and NBA games change, so predicting the future remains a moving target. There's some subjectivity that will need to be applied and deeper analysis to understand the numbers beyond the numbers.

And of course, I think we have to accept is that 3 point shooting is highly unpredictable. If it were easy, the draft would be really easy as well.

Scouting NBA Three-Point Shooting

What factors matter most when predicting success at shooting threes in the NBA? The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective demonstrates that to evaluate shooting talent, free throws are essential.

harvardsportsanalysis.org

View: https://medium.com/push-the-pace/fact-or-fiction-is-college-free-throw-percentage-better-than-college-three-point-percentage-at-8c77a7e3f09a

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

in college: Collier TS% 56.7. Fears TS% 56.2. Collier 3pt% 33.8. Fears 3pt% 28.4. collier shot better from three. fears shot better FTs. overall TS which takes into account both - the same, Collier slight edge.

immeasurably better.

Their numbers being similar doesn’t mean they are similar players.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I don't think #LockeWatch is a thing anymore with the new FO.....but he really likes Will Riley and it seems to be just because he likes him. He cited a good isolation efficiency number, but otherwise just a bunch of mid numbers. Doesn't align with how he evaluates or talks about other prospects, so I'm guessing he has an opinion from someone he respects/trusts that's making him like Riley a lot.

Will Riley might be good, but I can't shake the idea that he's a randomly generated player.

Regarding #LockeWatch, I think his MO is to not contradict what the front office is doing or thinking, and sometimes to help sell through some of those decisions. If Locke is out there saying, "Jeremiah should be considered at 5," it's because there's a legit chance the Jazz are actually considering him, or that Fears is the Jazz's backup plan if they can't get someone else they want. He's just not going to go on air and overtly contradict his employer.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Regarding #LockeWatch, I think his MO is to not contradict what the front office is doing or thinking, and sometimes to help sell through some of those decisions. If Locke is out there saying, "Jeremiah should be considered at 5," it's because there's a legit chance the Jazz are actually considering him, or that Fears is the Jazz's backup plan if they can't get someone else they want. He's just not going to go on air and overtly contradict his employer.

I do think he may also be influenced by Barlowe as his draft guy... who I think really likes Fears. I don't know that Locke is getting a lot of info from the front office right now. Though being over the moon about Tre and flaccid about Kon might be something coming from the FO convos. Tony has also been really high on Tre.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Riley at 21 would be among my least favorite potential picks there.

 

[Shad]

You have literally never contributed an intelligent thought to this message board.

From your takes alone, we can say the same for your draft selections LOL

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

From your takes alone, we can say the same for your draft selections LOL

Ok bud