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2025-2026 Tank Race Prediction Contest and Current Results Thread

framer said:
Naw, the league is going to give them that top 4 pick NEXT year. . .
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HermanG said:
Also if you believe in conspiracies and rigged drafts you should believe that finishing 9th is the best we can do to ensure rigging goes our way.

OKC is a small market team who already won a chip and is looking like a future powerhouse. That role belongs to the Celtics, Lakers etc... so NBA cant have any of that.
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Yeah, I thought that Philadelphia keeping their pick last year was pretty predictable. Maybe the league will give us the same courtesy after OKC wins 70 games this year.

The league may not be done helping Dallas though.
 
Every time I think about losing the pick I'm reminded that we gave Favors and Clarkson just enough money to make it a rounding error that put us over the tax. The gold trips Ryan Smith paid for with this pick are well worth it!
 
KqWIN said:
Every time I think about losing the pick I'm reminded that we gave Favors and Clarkson just enough money to make it a rounding error that put us over the tax. The gold trips Ryan Smith paid for with this pick are well worth it!
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Messing up the cap math was hilarious... and a few of us dumbasses caught it at the time.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Messing up the cap math was hilarious... and a few of us dumbasses caught it at the time.
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It’s crazy how close it was. I remember running the numbers and figuring out that if Dok had not taken 120% of the rookie scale we could have ducked it. I was probably off by a bit, but it gives context to just how close it was. Had either Clarkson or Favors taken a tiny discount (we probs were bidding against ourselves), we'd be in the clear.
 
KqWIN said:
It’s crazy how close it was. I remember running the numbers and figuring out that if Dok had not taken 120% of the rookie scale we could have ducked it. I was probably off by a bit, but it gives context to just how close it was. Had either Clarkson or Favors taken a tiny discount (we probs were bidding against ourselves), we'd be in the clear.
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Favs wasn't gonna walk over a 500k-1M discount. JC likely wasn't either. Just from a cash management standpoint leaving that money on the table was wild. If you really wanted Doke and wanted to save cash then go ahead and trade back into the second round. That summer was a weird dumpster fire of absolutely unforced errors.
 
NOP traded the Indiana first in 2026 for the 23rd pick in last year's draft. They traded the 23rd pick and their own 2026 first round pick for Derik Queen.

Right now you don't have to try really hard to get a tankathon sim that lands 2 of the first 3 picks in Atlanta (through NO) and Indiana. In like a 2 week span Dumars nuked NO in a way that is just so unbelievable.
 
hgb said:
Trade the 2nd worst of Jazz/Cavs/Wolves/LAL in '27 (worst is already going to Suns) to OKC for that '26 pick, make playoffs, watch Wolves plunge to lottery behind injuries, swap pick with Wolves, draft star, win title.
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They are not trading us the pick back for anything less than way too much. On the other side, the Jazz can choose to be terrible and end up with a better pick anyway. Neither side has a compelling reason to deal.

The swap component is noteworthy, but that’s precisely why the Thunder would be dicks about it.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
NOP traded the Indiana first in 2026 for the 23rd pick in last year's draft. They traded the 23rd pick and their own 2026 first round pick for Derik Queen.

Right now you don't have to try really hard to get a tankathon sim that lands 2 of the first 3 picks in Atlanta (through NO) and Indiana. In like a 2 week span Dumars nuked NO in a way that is just so unbelievable.
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The Indiana trade was bad luck. This was traded before Haliburton went down. It wasn't a bad trade at the time, but looks bad now. The Atlanta trade is still unfathomably bad.
 
We need Cody to start instead of Svi....but that's a hard ask when we're winning and AA had to get his mic drop moment in. I bet AA felt awesome in that moment though, worth losing a FRP.
 
NUMBERICA said:
They are not trading us the pick back for anything less than way too much. On the other side, the Jazz can choose to be terrible and end up with a better pick anyway. Neither side has a compelling reason to deal.

The swap component is noteworthy, but that’s precisely why the Thunder would be dicks about it.
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On one hand OKC has so many picks still that I doubt they care about the preserving a late first round pick, I'm sure they are much more interested in the small possibility of a lottery pick.

On the other hand we still kind of control whether that pick conveys or not. It's completely in our control to tank hard enough to ensure it conveys, which at that point OKC gets nothing.

I think there is some middle ground where the cost of the Jazz not having to sit healthy players is worth it to OKC to not lose out on the pick. I can't quite get to what that cost would be, so maybe I'm wrong.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
The Indiana trade was bad luck. This was traded before Haliburton went down. It wasn't a bad trade at the time, but looks bad now. The Atlanta trade is still unfathomably bad.
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Yes and no on the Indiana trade. I saw an old tweet of mine from the time that basically said I wouldn't do it. It was like locking in what would be the worst possible outcome for that pick (or close to it) just to get it a year earlier. The whole value of unprotected picks is really the uncertainty element. Its the whole weird short term thinking that went into their whole offseason. Yoloing the pick next year for the Atlanta pick with no protections. Swapping CJ for Poole because he makes a bit less this year that helps you sink below the tax.

So I do kinda blame them for doing that. Those picks are valuable because of the 5-10% chance of something bad happening... then something bad happened. At least maybe wait until draft night when you see if there is something that may slip to you that you like.
 
KqWIN said:
We need Cody to start instead of Svi....but that's a hard ask when we're winning and AA had to get his mic drop moment in. I bet AA felt awesome in that moment though, worth losing a FRP.
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This. It was such a weird press conference. He has a weird energy imo.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
On one hand OKC has so many picks still that I doubt they care about the preserving a late first round pick, I'm sure they are much more interested in the small possibility of a lottery pick.

On the other hand we still kind of control whether that pick conveys or not. It's completely in our control to tank hard enough to ensure it conveys, which at that point OKC gets nothing.

I think there is some middle ground where the cost of the Jazz not having to sit healthy players is worth it to OKC to not lose out on the pick. I can't quite get to what that cost would be, so maybe I'm wrong.
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Yeah I am not sure here. If we had a cheap good role player they needed I could see that kinda thing being appealing. As far as the asset goes I think they would just like the high end outcome over what I'd offer to kill the obligation.

We need to do the right thing anyway... which is to be a bottom 5 team. Problem is Ainge already kinda dug in (that shouldn't really be a problem), we didn't extend our second best player - so can't load manage him, the young players all seem to have taken decent steps forward (not really a problem).

It has to come with Svi. If that means Ainge removes him through a trade... then so be it. If its talking to Hardy about getting Williams out there for Svi... then so be it. Going from 25 wins to 30 wins is absolutely malpractice this season. Manage Lauri on b2bs... he's already paid and playing a lot anyway.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Yes and no on the Indiana trade. I saw an old tweet of mine from the time that basically said I wouldn't do it. It was like locking in what would be the worst possible outcome for that pick (or close to it) just to get it a year earlier. The whole value of unprotected picks is really the uncertainty element. Its the whole weird short term thinking that went into their whole offseason. Yoloing the pick next year for the Atlanta pick with no protections. Swapping CJ for Poole because he makes a bit less this year that helps you sink below the tax.

So I do kinda blame them for doing that. Those picks are valuable because of the 5-10% chance of something bad happening... then something bad happened. At least maybe wait until draft night when you see if there is something that may slip to you that you like.
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For some reason I had it in my mind that they just shifted years, traded an unprotected 2026 pick for an unprotected 2028 or something like that.

You are right, trading a 23rd pick for an unprotected pick was bad, not nearly as bad as the Atlanta trade, but still bad.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
This. It was such a weird press conference. He has a weird energy imo.
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A lot of ego for guys in his position, I’d say it’s kind of typical. Probably felt a lot better to have a mic drop moment than some non-answer.

Truthfully, I think the whole situation is kind of screwed because of the two half tank years. We really have only tanked for one year, but it feels like 3. The half tank years may even feel worse because you had to quit half way through instead of having reasonable expectations before the season.

I see why people are impatient, whether that be fans, FO people, or players. But we kinda got one year of tanking for the price of 3.
 
Right now I think Was, Bkn both finish below us. I also think 1-3 of Phx/NOP/Sac/Bos/Ind will finish below us on accident or with a stealth tank. I think we are okay I guess. I prefer to lock in at #3.

I think Charlotte is actually solid if they have decent health.
 
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